Bloomberg Talks

Jason Furman sheds light on the flawed reasoning behind tariffs and their misconceptions regarding trade deficits. He highlights the economic and geopolitical risks posed by tariffs, especially those implemented during the Trump administration, stressing potential slowdowns and rising inflation. The podcast also examines how tariffs impact trade relationships and the economy, discussing retaliatory actions and currency shifts. Furman argues this turmoil may create short-term challenges but hints at possible long-term benefits, enriched by insights on the dollar and inflation.

Jared Polis, the Governor of Colorado, dives into the significant impact of Trump's tariff policies on his state. He discusses how these tariffs could burden local businesses and the manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Polis offers a balanced perspective, addressing both skepticism and optimism regarding their economic repercussions. He emphasizes the importance of trade relations with Canada and Mexico, while also contemplating the risks of a potential national recession linked to current trade strategies.

Kevin Brady, former U.S. Congressman from Texas and spokesperson for the Alliance for Competitive Taxation, shares his insights on the economic implications of tariffs. He discusses President Trump's tariff plans and how they function as a tax increase affecting importers. Brady elaborates on the debate surrounding tax cuts and international trade, citing the significance of agreements like USMCA. He also touches on the political dynamics of special elections and the complexities of the SALT tax, highlighting the need for bipartisan reforms.

Rivian's CEO RJ Scaringe discusses their new spin-off company, Also, focusing on smaller electric vehicles for short trips. He explores innovative partnerships in the micro-mobility sector amid rising investment opportunities. The conversation turns to the complexities of entering the European market, including the impact of tariffs on strategic decisions. Scaringe also highlights challenges faced by electric vehicle founders in a turbulent landscape, emphasizing the importance of design control and a strong supply chain.

Richard Clarida, a global economic advisor at PIMCO and former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, discusses the current landscape of the U.S. economy, suggesting there's a hint of stagflation looming. He predicts the Fed will wait to respond until negative tariff impacts are felt in economic data. Clarida analyzes the disconnect between survey data and actual consumer metrics, the wealth disparities affecting consumer spending, and the complexities of inflation, all while navigating a landscape of uncertain economic signals.

Crawford Falconer, the former UK government's Chief Trade Negotiation Adviser, shares his deep expertise on trade strategies. He discusses the anticipated impact of upcoming US tariff announcements and emphasizes the importance of strategic planning for trade talks. Falconer also highlights the challenges of digital services tax negotiations with the US and the necessity of moving beyond tariffs to foster growth. His insights into post-Brexit trade relations shed light on the delicate balance needed in diplomacy while navigating global economic uncertainties.

Tommy Stadlen, co-founder of Giant Venture Capital, specializes in purpose-driven investments, particularly in climate tech. He discusses how the Trump administration's pro-oil stance contrasts with the rising importance of decarbonization. Stadlen highlights the evolution of climate tech investments, the surge in defense technology funding, and the 'Trump brain drain' impacting talent in the U.S. He emphasizes the need for strategic collaborations in Europe to advance climate technology amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics.

Mike Wilson, Chief US Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, shares his insights on market volatility and the potential impact of upcoming tariffs. He discusses how these tariffs could push the S&P 500 below 5,500 in the short term. Despite this, he remains optimistic about the overall market for the year. Wilson delves into the transition from Wall Street to Main Street, analyzing how economic shifts affect everyday Americans. He highlights the need for cautious investment in high-quality companies amid trade uncertainties and stagflation concerns.

Matt Goldberg, CEO of Tripadvisor, dives into the evolving landscape of travel amidst shifting consumer sentiment. Despite a decline in overall confidence, travel bookings remain robust, showcasing a preference for experiences over material goods. He discusses how economic factors influence travel choices, from luxury to budget-friendly options. Goldberg also highlights the demand for unique experiences and reveals how Tripadvisor leverages AI to enhance user engagement in a competitive market.

Former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard dives into the implications of rising core PCE price indices. He analyzes how stronger personal spending reflects on the economy. The discussion unfolds around the Federal Reserve's strategies for managing inflation expectations and interest rates. Insights into the stable labor market's impact on inflation also emerge, alongside a lighthearted nod to a local basketball team’s game. It's a blend of serious economic analysis and a touch of sports excitement!