Forward Guidance

Former FDIC Chair Bill Isaac discusses his handling of bank failures in the 1970s and 1980s, the impact of high interest rates on the banking system, and the fiscal imprudence of the U.S. Congress. He argues that inflation, rather than debt, is the true problem and debates the need for zero interest rates after the 2008 financial crisis. Isaac also explores the challenges banks face with rising interest rates and emphasizes the importance of prudence and moderation in the banking system.

Michael Ericson and Dan Siciliano discuss the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs), their role in the banking system, and the declining advances from FHLBs to US banks. They talk about the FHLB's mission, capitalization, implicit government guarantee, and their support for affordable housing. They also discuss liquidity pressures in the banking system and how FHLBs manage interest rate risk.

Ivy Zelman, founder and CEO of Zelman & Associates, shares her outlook on the U.S. housing market. Topics discussed include the resilience of the housing market, comparing the 2020 housing boom to the early 2000s boom, commercial real estate, housing's impact on banking, forecasts for single-family housing, supply of housing, outlook on homebuilding industry, negative outlook on home improvement industry, market for mortgage-backed securities, and the Fed's support with free money.

Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research joins Forward Guidance for a special episode from Camp Kotok.We discuss the past 3 years in both the economy and markets, Fitch's recent AAA downgrade on U.S debt & the lingering stress in commercial real estate. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!--Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Danielle on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADVFollow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/InterdependenceFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:51) Fitch's AAA Debt Downgrade(07:00) S&P's Debt Downgrade vs Fitch's Debt Downgrade(11:41) We Took MMT On A Test Drive & It Crashed Into The Wall(15:06) The Path Ahead For U.S Debt Issuance(19:58) Commercial Real Estate(23:19) Where Are We In The Cycle?(26:25) Oppenheimer Or Barbie?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Dennis Lockhart, Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, joins Forward Guidance for a special interview to discuss one of the most important topics of the past 3 years... inflation.Lockhart outlines how the Fed decided on their 2% inflation target, the impact of higher interest rates in the Fed's current inflation fight & why the Fed has now shifted to their quantitative tightening policy stance after years of quantitative easing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADVFollow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/InterdependenceFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:23) Inflation(05:08) The Impact Of Higher Interest Rates(08:00) The Fed Cannot Influence Fiscal Policy(10:58) How The Fed Reached Their 2% Target(16:55) Could Secular Inflation Forces Change The Fed's 2% Target?(21:11) The Shift From Quantitative Easing To Quantitative Tightening--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

David Kotok, chief investment officer and co-founder of Cumberland Advisors, welcomes Jack Farley to “Camp Kotok” with an interview. Kotok explains the origins of “Camp Kotok” and makes the case that, contrary to popular understanding, Fitch’s recent downgrading of U.S. debt is, in fact, a big deal. Filmed on August 5, 2023.David Kotok's analysis on the debt ceiling: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/cost-debt-ceiling-crisisAbout Camp Kotok: https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotokFollow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGICFollow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADVFollow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/InterdependenceFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadigFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo___Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:10) The History Of Camp Kotok(11:11) Fitch's Downgrade Of U.S. Treasury Debt(20:56) 2023 Debt Ceiling Drama Imposed Real Cost On Borrowing Rates(28:58) Alternatives To The Global Dollar System(31:29) Anecdote From Municipal Bond Market(35:46) Will Interests Rates Go Even Higher?(38:32) The Federal Reserve's Assistance To The U.S. Banking Sector In 2023

Leland Miller, founder of China Beige Book, sits down with Jack Farley at Camp Kotok to give a brief update on the state of the Chinese economy. Miller argues that, cyclically, Chinese growth is actually better than many economists believe. However, he reiterates his view that from a secular point of view, he expects Chinese growth to continue to encounter major headwinds. Recorded on August 5, 2023.Follow Leland Miller on Twitter https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBookFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadigFollow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGICFollow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADVFollow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/InterdependenceFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo___Timecodes:(04:32) Chinese Real Estate Is An Absolute Mess(06:09) China's Economic Growth Model Has Changed(09:11) China's Economic Is Cyclically Better, But Securlarly Worse, Than Many Expect

Jim Bianco, founder and CEO of Bianco Research, and Samuel Rines, managing director at Corbu LLC, join Jack Farley on beautiful Leen’s Lodge for the first week of “Camp Kotok.”Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Samuel Rines on Twitter https://twitter.com/SamuelRinesFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadigFollow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGICFollow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADVFollow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/InterdependenceFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo___Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(08:22) The Bond Market(12:45) I'm In The No-Landing Camp - Jim Bianco(17:40) Most Of The Effects Of The Fed's Hikes Have Already Been Felt(18:55) Forward Guidance Is A Problem - Samuel Rines

James Lavish, hedge fund veteran, managing director of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, and author of “The Informationist” newsletter, joins Forward Guidance to share his vision for the future of money.Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm.____Follow James Lavish on Twitter https://twitter.com/jameslavishFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (03:52) The "Disease" Of Debt(16:03) The Fiscal Debt Spiral(28:25) Hard Assets As A Standard For Global Money(42:25) Valuing Bitcoin As A Call Option(49:22) Imagining A Deflationary Monetary System(58:36) Why Just Bitcoin?(01:03:51) Lavish's Bitcoin Opportunity Fund(01:09:47) Lavish: A Lot of Crypto Projects Are, In Fact, Securities(01:11:44) The Economy & The Federal Reserve(01:15:04) Tether(01:17:15) Optimal Macro Environment For Bitcoin____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors join Forward Guidance to discuss and debate all things liquidity.Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap___Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspringFollow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeardsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_More info on Damped Spring Advisors: https://dampedspring.com/More info on Crossborder Capital: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/Michael Howell’s Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/____Timecodes:(00:00) // Defining Global Liquidity(04:07) // Only Looking At Federal Reserve Liquidity Is A Big, Big Mistake(11:23) // Why Has Michael Howell's Global Liquidity Index (GLI) Been Rising?(18:49) // The U.S. Treasury's Issuance Composition Has Been A Huge Factor For Liquidity(31:36) // Is This "Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE)"?(44:06) // Inverted Yield Curve & Repo(53:19) // Michael Howell's Bull Case For Stocks(59:10) // The "Short All Assets" Trade(01:07:43) // Will The Fed Return To Outright Quantitative Easing (QE)?(01:11:41) // Is Liquidity Going To Expand? Yes, It Is - Michael Howell(01:17:44) // Final Points On Term Premia, Fiscal Arithmatic, And The Dollar____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.