Forward Guidance

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiMFollow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX__This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week.With Bitcoin breaking past $30,000, equity indices reaching new bull market territory and many speculating that the Fed has finished hiking, we walk through the liquidity backdrop and if we are entering a new bull market, or not? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!—Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_—Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/—Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital returns to Forward Guidance with a much-needed update on global liquidity.--Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercapFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:02) Rising Liquidity Is Supporting A New Bull Market(07:07) Are Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control Already Here?(27:06) We're In A Liquidity Cycle Upturn(32:42) Falling Inflation Has Boosted Liquidity & Price / Earnings (P/E) Multiples(40:58) Liquidity Is Rising In China & Japan(47:20) Howell's Not Very Bullish On Bonds(54:53) Stocks Will Likely Continue To Outperform Bonds(56:06) When Will The Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates?(01:00:08) Internals Of Stock Market Indicate Global Economic Slowdown Is Likely Already Behind Us(01:03:00) Liquidity Is High In Chinese Financial System(01:13:25) Inflows Into Emerging Markets Are "Very Unusual"(01:16:20) How To Measure Bank of Japan's Liquidity Injections(01:17:25) Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB) Are Less Important Than Fed & People's Bank of China (PBOC)(01:18:29) The Fiscal Endgame (Rates Have To Stay High To Prevent Further Debt Build-up)(01:31:42) When Will Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) Turn Into Outright QE?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Louis Camhi, founder and chief investment officer of RLH Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to provide a strategic update on the world of SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies).___Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalystFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/___Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos___Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:58) "A Lot Of The Optionality of SPACs Is Dead"(17:25) State of SPAC Dealflow In Summer 2023(32:08) Warrant Arbitrage(59:43) SPAC LIquidiation Wave in December 2022 Because of Stock Buyback Tax Threat In Inflation Reduction Act(01:06:49) "SPACs Are A Bull Market Product"(01:20:02) How SPAC Yields Have Changed With RIsing Interest Rates(01:29:17) Macroeconomic Implications(01:32:07) View on Banks(01:38:26) Cannabis___Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its hiking of interest rates. Filmed on June 14, 2023, after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference for the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance we invite Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro for a discussion on Powell's press conference post FOMC. With Tuesday's CPI report coming in-line with expectations, the Fed Funds rate now rests above the year over year inflation number. The number one question market participants are now asking themselves is will the Fed continue to hike, or is the hiking cycle about to reverse? Luckily, we have the perfect guest to help answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionlessResearch, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Robert Steven Kaplan, former President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, joins Forward Guidance to share his views on the U.S. economy, banking system, and the Fed itself. Filmed on June 12, 2023, two days before the end of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Robert Kaplan’s website: https://www.robertstevenkaplan.com/--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:22) Pause Likely at June Fed Meeting, According To Market Pricing(01:16) Why Kaplan Voted Against Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy (September 2020 Dissent re: Forward Guidance & Flexible Average Inflation Targeting)(05:02) Fed Has Slammed On The Brakes(06:40) Did Fed Action Exacerbate Banking Stress?(15:13) How Fed Thinks About Inverted Yield Curves(16:53) Global Economic Recovery, April 2020 to Present(24:02) Did The Fed "Monetize" The U.S. Debt?(25:10) Future Economic Outlook(29:25) In-Depth Thoughts On Banking Turmoil(39:36) Deposit Outflows Will Depend on The Credit Cycle(41:32) Interal Politics At The Federal Reserve(50:56) Fed Cuts Are Off The Table For Now(53:08) How Closely Does Fed React To Stock Market (vs. Credit Market)?(55:08) Inflation, Oil, and Energy Policy(59:34) Venture Philanthropy & Venture Capital(01:02:41) Closing Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Eric Crittenden Chief Investment Officer at Standpoint Asset Management joins the show for a deep dive into the world of systematic macro investing.Eric walks through the current market outlook as many investors battle with recessionary concerns, but an equity market that continues climbing higher. Using a macro trend strategy and focusing on term structure, trend & liquidity, Eric explains how a systematic approach can help generate returns, as he was able to outperform the index since the launch of Standpoint in 2020. Finally, Eric shares his outlook for a variety of assets that his macro trend strategy is signalling both bullish & bearish signs for, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Standpoint Asset Management https://twitter.com/StandpointFundsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Finding Opportunities Using A Macro Trend Strategy(04:21) Why Eric Has Been Long Japan, U.S & Europe In 2023(08:54) Generating Returns Using A Quantitative Strategy(15:27) How Market Structure Has Changed Since The 1980's(18:06) Shorting Oil In 2023(20:45) Permissionless(21:22) Market Hedging(27:53) Market Liquidity(29:49) Launching Standpoint In 2020(33:18) Artificial Intelligence(39:49) Blockworks Research(40:49) Harvesting Risk Premium(49:51) Eric's Principles For Successful Trading(55:19) What Will AI's Role Be In Financial Markets?(59:39) The Psychology Of Macro Trend(01:03:39) Gold--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today, Jack speaks with two veteran bankers about bank lending, a key engine of the real economy, and where it is headed. John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, join Forward Guidance to share how the rapid surge in interest rates has drastically changed the math for community and regional banks. Now that deposits are no longer free, banks must charge far higher rates on their loans (auto, mortgage, commercial, commercial real estate, etc.) in order to earn a commensurate return. Toohig notes that some that banks have NOT yet sufficiently raised their loan yields, to account for this surge in cost of funds. There are two potential reasons for this: first, loan officers are making loans that may not make economic sense because they are incentivized to do so and/or it is to a key client relationship; and second, because many in the banking industry expect that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates which will put a ceiling on funding costs. However, bank regulators (such as the FDIC) may be in the process of forcing some banks to realized losses. Filmed on June 8, 2023.____Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoansToohig’s latest edition of “Let’s Talk Loans” on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-talk-loans-vol-54-john-toohig/?trackingId=aQYzOQTGTamI1nI%2FRdRp4A%3D%3DFollow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreakFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(13:45) Liquidity In Seconday Loan Market(27:25) Permissionless(28:03) Commercial Real Estate(35:22) There's Something Far Scarier Than Higher Borrowing Costs(41:41) The Giant Flaw In The "Banks Don't Need Deposits Because They Create Deposits" Argument
44:38 Money Is Being Destroyed Right Now, That Means Less Lending"(51:49) Blockworks Research(52:49) Bankers Are Paying WAY More Attention To The Fed And Rates (And Nick Timiraos) Than They Were Pre-2020(57:29) Bank Regulators Are Encouraging Some Banks To Realize Losses(01:01:15) "Social Media Risk" For Banks(01:07:13) Why Don't The Banks Just Make Loans At Higher Rates?(01:10:34 Cracks Are Already Starting To Appear In Subprime Credit(01:14:37) Why Hasn't Credit Contraction Been Faster, Given These Headwinds?____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack is joined by an anonymous trader known only by their Twitter handle @Citrini7, who has the absolute “hottest hand” when it comes to picking Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks. Citrini is very optimistic about the boost that the adoption of AI will provide to semiconductor companies, data service providers, and optical fiber companies, and he describes in depth some of the stocks from his AI basket he thinks are most poised to benefit, which in aggregate are up ~50% this year.Quoting George Soros’ saying that, “when I see a bubble, I rush in to buy it,” Citrini thinks AI might prove to be a bubble, but that if it is a bubble, it is in the early stages. Filmed on June 2, 2023.Follow Citrini7 on Twitter https://twitter.com/Citrini7Citrini Substack https://citrini.substack.com/Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Timestamps:00:00 Intro03:51 Is Artificial Intelligence (AI) Already A Bubble?28:21 The Lipstick Effect32:50 How Can These Rich Valuations Be Justified?41:57 Permissionless42:34 The Losers of The Rise of Artificial Intelligence50:43 Blockworks Research

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sued both Binance and Coinbase, and Casey Wagner, senior policy reporter at Blockworks, is here to break it all down.Recent Reporting by Casey Wagner on Blockworks:“Coinbase Put in House Hot Seat Hours After SEC Lawsuit Released”: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-in-house-hot-seat“Regulation by Enforcement Is Unsustainable, CFTC Chair Tells Congress”: https://blockworks.co/news/regulation-by-enforcement-unsustainable“Coinbase Stock Tanks 16% Following SEC Lawsuit”: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-stock-tanks-16-following-sec-lawsuit“SEC Labels 10 Tokens Securities in Binance Lawsuit”: https://blockworks.co/news/sec-10-tokens-securities____Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerrFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.