Forward Guidance

Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of ExAnte Data and MarketReader, joins Jack Farley to give his data-driven look at bank lending, de-dollarization, and global growth. Nordvig notes that bank lending contraction has not yet appeared in the data but that the situation deserves to be monitored. He explains why the world continues to rely on the U.S. dollar and exposes several statistical misunderstandings of data on Chinese and U.S. sovereign bond flows. Nevertheless, he is bearish on the U.S. dollar (even in a recession, perhaps), and he explains why in great detail. He says to be on watch if the U.S. Dollar continues to decline in value during a stock market fall (historically, the U.S. Dollar rallies during a sell-off in stocks). Lastly, Nordvig shares findings from his exciting new venture, MarketReader, which aims to use artificial intelligence to help generate insights for investors. ____Follow Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://twitter.com/jnordvigFollow Exante on Twitter https://twitter.com/ExanteDataFollow MarketReader on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarketReaderIncFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:27) Tracking Capital Flows(01:43) Where Is The Money Going?(19:53) The Dollar And The Euro(25:30) Blockworks Research(26:29) Is The "De-Dollarization Narrative" Backed Up By The Data?(38:04) Is China Actually Dumping U.S. Treasurys?(41:14) Central Banks' Swap-Adjusted FX Reserves Do Not Show Significant De-Dollarization(46:18) Bearish Near-Term Case For The Dollar(57:14) Permissionless(58:15) About MarketReader's Emerging Artificial Intelligence Capabilities(01:11:52) Closing thoughts On The Dollar & Stock Market Correlation____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the Chinese economic growth model, which Pettis argues faces severe challenges. __Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidanceto access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor.__Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_usFollow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://twitter.com/michaelxpettisFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:40) China's Economic Growth Model(18:32) The Explosion of Debt in China(26:01) Van Eck ad(26:51) Domestic Consumption In China(35:04) How The Chinese Banking System Actually Works(39:04) Beijing's Controlled Demolition Of The Chinese Real Estate Bubble(43:20) Trade Imbalances Have Facilitated Massive Debt Creation in The U.S. And China(49:01) Why China's Use Of The Dollar Will Likely Continue(01:00:46) The Chinese Stock Market Does Not Track The Chinese Economy(01:02:45) Is The People's Bank Of China Adding Liquidity?(01:04:55) Chinese Growth in 2023 Could Actually Be Strong Relative To The U.S.(01:08:28) Closing Thoughts On Long-Term Chinese Economic Growth: Why The Pessimists Aren't Pessimistic Enough

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her thoughts on May 3rd’s Federal Reserve’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as well as the ongoing issues at several regional U.S. banks. Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careersUse code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.(00:00) Intro(11:02) When Will The Fed Pivot (Cut Rates)?(15:40) Powell Wants To Get Rid Of The Fed Put(25:20) Calling Inflation "Transitory" Was "A Path To Hell"(29:11) "Powell Will Stand His Ground"(34:30) Permissionless(35:34) The Balance Sheet(40:17) Powell Won't Save The Banks(47:41) Blockworks Research(48:41) The Debt Ceiling(54:08) "This Is Going To Be A Really Ugly Recession"(58:03) Door To A June Hike Is Ajar(59:11) The Bernanke Doctrine(01:01:26) Danielle's Views On Private Credit Are Evolving

Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and author of “Trillion Dollar Triage” joins Jack Farley to share his analysis of yesterday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed at 10am ET on May 4, 2023.---Timiraos' article on May 3 Fed meeting: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-raises-rates-signals-potential-pause-eb264784Timiraos’ article on 2006 hiking cycle: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-a-fed-debate-17-years-ago-reveals-about-its-rate-deliberations-now-4835936Timiraos’ book, “Trillion Dollar Triage”: https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817---Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraosFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_---Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Forward Guidance to break down the Federal Reserve’s meeting on May 3rd, during which Fed Chair Powell noted that “conditions in the banking sector have improved.” Shortly thereafter, shares of PacWest Bank ($PACW) plummeted.Bianco and Farley also explore whether this is the Fed’s last hike in interest rates, and how the consequences of the looming debt ceiling will impact the banking system and markets.Note: this interview started to filmed at 3:30pm ET on May 3rd, almost immediately after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference, but BEFORE the crash in $PACW (over 50%), which occurred shortly after 4:30pm ET. Bianco and Farley’s discussion of PacWest occurred before PacWest announced it was pursuing a strategic sale.__Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidanceto access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor.__Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_usFollow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks___Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Josh Young Chief Investment Officer & Founder of Bison Interests joins the show for a deep dive into the oil and gas industry. After a record year in 2022 for oil & gas, with energy being the best performing sector, 2023 has sent investors on "a wild ride" with crude oil retracing gains from its high of around $120 to around $75.Josh walks through the relative performances of the oil majors, and the small/mid size cap companies he specializes in. As many oil & gas companies have restructured their balance sheets and paid down overhanging debt, is the stage set for an outperformance of the oil & gas companies that incurred tougher times throughout the previous decade. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!—Follow Josh: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw—Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careersUse code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/—Referenced In The Show:The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy: https://www.amazon.com/Bottomless-Well-Twilight-Virtue-Energy-ebook/dp/B009TCWKLC —Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:21) A wild Ride In The Oil Market(05:34) Oil Companies Profitability vs A Decade Ago(15:22) Are O&G Companies Investing In R&D, Or Share Buybacks?(18:57) Natural Gas(23:58) Are Rising Production Costs Impacting O&G Companies?(28:50) Permissionless(29:53) Searching For Low Decline Producers In The Oil Market(33:28) Baytex Energy (BTE)(40:45) Josh's Oil Price Outlook(56:19) Blockworks Research(57:19) Investing In O&G Companies In The U.S & Canada vs Rest of World(01:08:03) Overrated O&G Companies In The Small & Mid Cap Industry—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today First Republic, America’s 14th largest bank, was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) who sold the vast majority of the stranded assets to banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM). Jack welcomes two veteran bankers, Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, for an in-depth look at why First Republic and how the banking system can move on from today’s takeover.____Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalenFollow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreakFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careersUse code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:48) The "False Narrative" About First Republic(04:44) "The Bondholders Will Get Toasted First"(07:06) "We Just Need More Time"(09:54) "The Fed's Got To Cut"(11:52) Credit Availablity Has Already Come Down(15:03) Why Did The Fed Buy Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)?(19:35) Commercial Real Estate (CRE)(23:30) Mortgage REITs & Interest Rate Risk(37:36) "The Loss To The FDIC Will Grow”(40:55) Permissionless(41:58) Is The Fed Really To Blame For Bank Failures? (Jack Pushes Back)(52:58) The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)(55:38) Blockworks Research(56:37) Moral Hazard Argument About Deposit Insurance(01:05:51) Tease At Future Interviews On Forward Guidance____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Dr. Perry Mehrling, Professor of International Political Economy at the Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the health of the global dollar system. Sharing ideas from his latest book, “Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System,” Dr. Mehrling shares insights on the extension of the dollar to the global south and globalization of shadow banking. Mehrling and Farley explore whether rumors of the dollar’s death are greatly exaggerated, and how the end of a zero-interest-rate-fueled credit cycle could be a “little rocky.” __“Money and Empire”: https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/economics/macroeconomics-and-monetary-economics/money-and-empire-charles-p-kindleberger-and-dollar-system?format=HB“Money and Empire” on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Money-Empire-Kindleberger-Economic-Thinking/dp/1009158570__Follow Perry Mehrling on Twitter https://twitter.com/PMehrlingFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks___“The New Lombard Street”: https://www.amazon.com/New-Lombard-Street-Became-Dealer/dp/0691143986/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=i42Qi&content-id=amzn1.sym.ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_p=ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_r=144-5485129-5375822&pd_rd_wg=KL4l1&pd_rd_r=5ee218b8-1e89-4991-8a8d-ac9e7c073e06&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dskPerry Mehrling, Zoltan Pozsar, Daniel Neilson, and James Sweeney, “Bagehot was a Shadow Banker: Shadow Banking, Central Banking, and the Future of Global Finance” https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2232016__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:02) What Is The Global Dollar System?(02:32) The Dollar Is International, Not Domestic(06:43) The Inherent Instability Of Thought(08:49) "The Fed Learned Its Lesson From 2008"(11:45) Key Features Of A Global Reserve Currency(20:36) The Fall Of The Sterling Standard After World War 1(24:02) Sterling Was The Standard, Not Gold(26:25) "The Crime Of 1971" Was Nixon's DePegging The Dollar From Gold, According to Kindleberger(27:44) Why Was There Inflation In The 1970s (Instead of Deflation)?(30:50) Next Few Years Will Be "A Little Rocky"(36:03) The Globalization Of Shadow Banking(39:06) Blockworks Research(40:05) Money Market Funds (MMFs), Comparison Between Now And Great Financial Crisis(43:44) "The Dollar System Seems To Be Holding Together"(46:45) The Four Prices Of Money(56:02) Permissionless(57:04) Kindleberger's Critique Of The Triffin Dilemma(01:06:48) The Myth Of Bretton Woods(01:12:32) What's Missing In Contemporary Understanding Of Kindleberger's School Of Thought__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he’s no longer bearish on natural gas, why he thinks the May Fed meeting could be a catalyst for gold, and why hedge fund managers who are still short officer REITs (real estate investment trusts) will get their faces he’s no longer bearish on natural gas. He discusses several essays from his latest book, “Those Bastards: 69 Essays On Life, Creativity, & Meaning.” Filmed on April 17, 2023.____Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnapFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(04:01) Shorting Commercial Real Estate Is A Crowded Trade(08:36) Outlook On Stocks(12:24) Healthcare Sector(14:53) Permissionless(15:56) "Gold Is Super Interesting"(19:26) Gold Mining Stocks(22:29) May Fed Meeting Could Be "Next Big Catalyst" For Gold(24:54) Is It Time To Get Bullish On Bonds?(27:25) "The Labor Market Will Weaken A Bit"(28:38) Jared's New Book(30:03) What Is Luck?(36:55) Blockworks Research(37:55) Is Finance Depraved?

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Nathan Tankus Author at Notes on the Crises joins the show for a deep dive into the shadow banking system, recent financial crises and the current state of the banking system post SVB's collapse. Questioning conventional monetary theory, Nathan outlines his thesis authored in a recent paper released in January 2022 "The New Monetary Theory". Nathan also shares his thoughts on the current FDIC limit of $250,000 and how an increase in this limit could help prevent future bank panics. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Subscribe To Notes on the Crises: https://www.crisesnotes.com/Follow Nathan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NathanTankusFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Referenced In The Show: THE NIGHT THEY REREAD POZSAR (IN HIS ABSENCE): https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-night-they-reread-pozsar-in-his-absence/The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One: How Corporate Executives and Politicians Looted the S&L Industry: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Best-Way-Rob-Bank-Own/dp/0292754183 THE NEW MONETARY POLICY: https://files.modernmoney.network/M3F000001.pdf?ref=crisesnotes.comThe Federal Government Always Money-Finances Its Spending: A Restatement: https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-federal-government-always-money/—Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(03:20) What Is Shadow Money?(14:51) The Collapse of SVB(22:42) The Bank Term Funding Program(29:29) The March Banking Panic Was NOT A Systemic Crisis(31:23) The Savings & Loans Crisis(37:37) Bank Crisis... But The Fed Hiked Rates?(45:17) The New Monetary Policy(01:04:03) Modern Monetary Theory(01:13:03) Re-Thinking Government Borrowing--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.