Today Jack welcomes William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve.They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the “debt trap,” and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability.William White’s work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/Joseph Wang’s writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj__Academic papers referenced:"Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah"Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8"Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikqWilliam White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling:https://rb.gy/robwk2--Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:09) Looking Back At 2022(04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions(11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error"(23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models?(25:25) Algorand Ad(27:09) If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do?(40:43) The Debt Trap(46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake?(54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap(58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money(01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here(01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Zed Francis, chief investment officer at Convexitas, joins Jack to talk about interest rate risk, what really happened to the British pension system, and tail risk as a portfolio diversifier. Francis argues that December 2022 will see a wave of mandatory liquidations by the U.S. retirees forced to take mandatory distributions on their retirement accounts. These forced sales will be larger as a percentage of the typical 60/40 portfolio than they normally are, due to the drawdown in stocks and bonds that have already occurred this year. Filmed on November 8, 2022.--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsjAbout Convexitas: https://www.convexitas.com/Convexitas’ piece on Liability-Driven Investment (LDI): https://www.convexitas.com/insights/liability-driven-investment-de-risking-if/Convexitas’ piece on duration risk: https://www.convexitas.com/insights/rates-free-risk-duration-duration-everywhere/__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:33) The Financialization Of Everything(10:27) Private Markets(17:01) Duration (Interest Rate Risk) Explained(19:35) The Losses From Rising Rates Are Immense(26:26) The U.K. Pensions Crisis - Explained In Great Detail(38:41) Stocks and Volatility(41:53) "Ignore The VIX"(45:19) Tail Risk(50:47) Are Active Investment Managers Underweight Stocks?(01:00:07) The Different Phases of A Bear Market(01:07:46) The Credit Markets Are Frozen(01:10:21) A "Waterfall of Liquidations" Is Coming From Forced Selling From Retirement Accounts(01:19:45) The Value Of Portfolio Overlays(01:26:00) Basis Risk__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mike McGlone, macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins Jack to share his outlook on how commodities, bonds, and crypto will perform during this period of economic turbulence wherein some form of global recession is predicted by most mainstream economists. McGlone argues that the price of oil remains too high to allow for economic growth, and that the pending economic slowdown is destroying demand and will continue to do so.NOTE: This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 8th, 2022, a time at which the extent of crypto exchange FTX’s distress was still being discovered, and when it still looked like Binance would acquire FTX. Follow Mike McGlone on Twitter https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj___Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com___Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:15) We're Going Down"(05:28) FTX's Implosion Causing Cascades Within And Beyond Crypto(07:43) McGlone's Bearish Case For Crude Oil(11:57) Have Interest Rates Peaked?(22:00) Have We Reached Peak Oil Demand?(26:04) Is ESG Making The Oil Supply Curve Less Elastic?(29:42) Forward Curve In Oil(38:29) China Is In A Severe Recession(47:56) Why Is Liquidity So Poor In Paper Oil?(50:12) Bitcoin and Inflation(55:39 Does FTX's Fall Change The Regulatory Approach Towards Crypto?__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code.This is a deleted scene from an interview that Jack did with Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital, which originally aired on October 18, 2022. Link to the original interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRiDkbNl-6g--Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppyFollow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SeawolfcapFollow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COMFollow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceMore info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/--Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.com or jack@blockworks.co--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

In an emergency episode, Jack speaks to one of the sharpest crypto minds he knows, Matt Fiebach, research analyst on the Blockworks Research team, about the turmoil engulfing FTX, a digital asset exchange that up until very recently was considered one of the safest and most blue chip exchanges.Matt breaks down the collapse in confidence that led to FTX Token falling 80% over the course of one day, and FTX’s rumored acquisition by Binance, a digital asset behemoth led by Chengpeng Zhao (“CZ”) that, should the acquisition close, would become the undisputed king of all crypto exchange. Matt and Farley consider financial contagion risk within crypto as well as in the broader traditional finance (“tradfi”) world.__Follow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksresFollow Matt Fiebach on Twitter https://twitter.com/MattFiebachFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:54) Overview of FTX's Problems(02:49) Alameda Research's Balance Sheet(09:09) FTX As A Big Blue-Chip Player In Crypto(13:16) Possible Outcomes(16:31) Was FTX Investing Customer Assets?(20:25) Risk Of Contagion(27:48) Matt Fiebach's Background(30:42) About Blockworks Research(31:49) Closing Thoughts__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In the November FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jay Powell stated that while the pace of economic growth is slowing, indicators point to modest growth in spending and production this quarter.Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the economy is slowing much, much faster than the Federal Reserve’s models indicate. Tchir tells Jack Farley how brewing geopolitical tension between China and the U.S. will likely continue to weigh upon financial markets, and he shares his insights on energy markets in the U.S. and Europe. --Follow Peter Tchir on Twitter https://twitter.com/TFMktsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:27) "I Would Disagree With Powell" On The U.S. Economy(06:03) "Credit Bubbles Only Happen With Safe Assets"(08:17) Layoffs In Big Tech(12:17) This Will Be A Deep And Lasting Recession(14:31) The Semiconductor Industry(20:34) China(33:52) Energy(36:56)) Regulation of Fossil Fuels(40:41) When Will The Drawdown of The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Stop?(44:27) Will Europe's Energy Problems Cause A Recession?(48:26) The Strong Dollar Is Destabalizing The Global Financial System(59:30) The Increasing Political Pressure On The Federal Reserve--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co, or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/.Paul Hodges, author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share the grim tidings from the chemicals industry, whose troubles Hodges argues are indicating that consumer demand will slow rapidly around the globe. After reviewing how and why the chemicals industry is a bellwether for the global economy, Hodges tells Jack Farley how the collapse in chemical prices is a harbinger for a severe global recession. Unrelenting high energy prices, which are a key input to chemical production, are making the chemical refining business even more challenging. Hodges and Farley also discuss the future of inflation and how it is affected by central banks, geopolitics, and demographics.Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co.--Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/--Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:51) Chemicals Market Is Indicating The Recession Will Be Deep(14:03) The Mood Is Grim" In The Chemicals Business(19:21) Demographics Are Not Helping!(23:25) The Yield Curve Is Not The Be-All End-All(32:35) Chemical Prices Are Collapsing(40:04) Has Inflation Peaked?(44:44) In A Recession, Earnings Go Down(46:19) The Fed Put Is No More(52:51) A Food Crisis Is Brewing(55:46) Oil and Natural Gas(01:03:31) How Will Europe Handle This Winter?(01:11:17) There Is Considerable Downside Risk"(01:14:42) Discount To pH Report, Paul Hodges' Research Service--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference on November 2nd, 2022, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, join Jack Farley to share their thoughts from the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj___Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com___Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/--Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:42) General Thoughts on The November FOMC Meeting(04:48) New Sentence On Monetary Policy Acting With A Leg(12:57) Strong Labor Market(19:44) Why Should The Fed Not Hike By 75 Basis Points in December?(23:29) Powell's Yield Curve Is About To Invert(31:05) Is A Soft Landing Still Possible?(43:38) A Treasury Buyback Program Is NOT Coming to Rescue The Bond Market (At Least In 2022)(51:42) A Financial Accident Is Getting More And More Likely__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With the Fed set to hike interest rates yet again, Jack is lucky to speak to the ultimate Federal Reserve heavyweights: Nick Timiraos, chief economics corresopndent for The Wall Street Journal, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed. Timiraos and Wang share what they will be watching for in the Powell presser on November 2nd, 2022, and discuss how resilient consumer balance sheets are making the Fed’s job even harder. Timiraos Wang argues that Treasury buyback program would be effective in improving liquidity in U.S. government bonds, which is currently very weak, and Timiraos shares how he goes about picking a question to ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Filmed on November 1, 2022, the first day of the meeting of the November Federal Open Market Committee. Stay tuned for an upcoming interview with Joseph Wang and Jim Bianco, which will be filmed after the Powell presser on November 2nd. ______Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraosFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj______Joseph Wang’s book, “Central Banking 101”: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747Nick Timiraos’ book, “Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell And The Fed Battled A President And A Pandemic – And Prevented Economic Disaster”: https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/nick-timiraos/trillion-dollar-triage/9780316272810/Nick Timiraos’ article: “Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-to-focus-on-interest-rates-coming-path-11667295181Nick Timiraos’ article: “Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-rich-consumers-could-mean-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-11667075614Joseph’s Wang piece, “The Money Still Flows”: https://fedguy.com/the-money-still-flows/Joseph Wang’s piece on Treasury Buybacks (“Quantitative Buybacks”): https://fedguy.com/quantitative-buybacks/______Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/______Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:07) What To Look For In November FOMC Meeting(11:06) The Consumer Balance Sheet Is Strong(19:45) The Fed's Balance Sheet(28:45 )Treasury Liquidity Is Very Weak"(31:20) A Potential Treasury Buyback(31:51) Will The Fed Adjust Its Inflation Target?(46:37) Could The Fed Go From A 50 Basis Point Hike To A Halt In Hiking Rates?(49:36) Asking A Question To Jerome Powell(56:43 )Is The Drain on Banking Reserves Going To Force The Fed To Stop Reducing Its Balance Sheet?Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.______

Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, has been extremely prescient in calling for persistently high inflation. Vincent returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he thinks that inflation will remain close to the 5-7% range over the next decade, due to inflationary demographics, the reversal of globalization, regular energy crises, and declining immigration.Deluard proposes a “holy Trinity” portfolio consisting of energy companies (which benefit from inflation), banks (which benefit from rising rates), and healthcare companies (which perform during a recession and which offer secular growth exposure at much cheaper valuations to the technology sector). Filmed on October 25, 2022.__Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluardFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj__Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(08:49) How Aging Demographics Can Actually Be Inflationary(17:34) The Fed's 2% Inflation Target Is Transitory(27:22) Wealth Inequality & Financial Repression(39:29) Stocks Will Perform Poorly(46:38) Would A Fed Pivot Really Be Bullish For Stocks?(51:15) Why Won't The Recession Be Deep?(57:20) The Holy Trinity Portfolio ($XLV, $XLE, and $XLF)(01:02:51) Energy(01:11:09) Chaos In The Sovereign Bond Market(01:14:44) Brazil and Gold(01:16:40) Favorite BooksDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.___