Jack welcomes Sam Martin and Dan Smith, analysts on the Blockworks Research team and hosts of the upcoming podcast 0xResearch, which airs on November 2nd, 2022. Sam and Dan educate Jack about the latest developments in Ethereum, Cosmos, Bitcoin, Convex Finance, and Polygon, and Jack shares his own views about how a Fed “pivot” might impact asset prices.Filmed on October 26, 2022.Follow Sam Martin on Twitter https://twitter.com/swmartin19Follow Dan Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/smyyguyFollow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksresFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsjSign up for the Research daily newsletter here: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily-debrief-by-blockworks-research/--Timestamps;(00:00) Intro(00:25) Macro and Crypto(03:10) Navigating A Crypto Bear Market(10:48) Ethereum Supply Curve(28:18) About The 0xResearch Podcast(30:14) Zero Knowledge Roll-ups(36:37) Ethereum & Cosmos(44:55) Bitcoin(52:30) Jack Answers Macro Questions

Daniel Neilson, economist and author of “Minksy” and the Soon Parted newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the European Central Bank’s efforts to control inflation by raising interest rates to the highest level in over a decade. Neilson also shares his views on how the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar is creating financial instability around the world, and why the Federal Reserve might need to extend support to other central banks.Neilson's article, "Dear Dollar," can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/p/dear-dollarFollow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilsonFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj_Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. _Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In October 2021, Lyn Alden, renowned macroeconomic thinker and investor, joined Forward Guidance for its first episode to argue that the sovereign bond market was vulnerable to inflationary pressures.1 year later, with investors having dumped many trillions worth of government bonds, Alden returns to share her thinking on the long-term debt cycle, the energy markets, and what she sees as growing pressures for central banks to reliquify their beleaguered bond markets.Filmed on October 20th, 2022.Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContactFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://fgpodcast.link/algorand--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(19:54) What Will Cause The Fed To Pivot?(26:21) The Treasury Market Is Not In Full Panic Mode Yet(33:45) Recession Risk(35:24) Asset Allocation(38:26) The Dollar and Emerging Markets(45:45) Energy(53:49) When Will The Dollar Stop Rising?(01:01:54) The Long-Term Debt Cycle--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data are quickly deteriorating. Booth notes that while the credit quality of mortgages remain high, the mortgage origination market itself falling sharply and, because of a “biblical” quantity of single-family houses about to hit the market, Booth expects housing prices to continue to fall. Booth argues that the car loan market is in even worse condition, as car note defaults mount, the car values plummet and the jubilee-like monetary conditions of 2020 and 2021 wither away. Booth’s description of the car loan market reminds Farley of his reading of the subprime housing meltdown in 2007. Booth and Farley also discuss Bernanke’s Nobel Prize and the means and timing of a Powell pivot.__Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj__Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:21) The Housing Recession(09:39) The Brewing Auto Loan Wreck(19:06) Is The Auto Loan Crisis Systemic?(23:14) Sponsor ad Bitrex(24:42) The "Winter" In Investment Banking(26:38) The Fed Is Not Coming To The Rescue(31:31) The Recession Started In January 2022"(43:26) Will The Fed Bail Out The Treasury Market?(48:37) The Bernanke Doctrine Is Failing(51:10) Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize: "The Prize Was Premature"(53:57) Is Jay Powell Making The Right Move?(58:38) Closing Thoughts On The Midterms In The U.S.--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Richard Field, director of The Institute For Financial Transparency, joins Jack Farley to argue that the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and is making another one now. Field tells Jack he thinks that former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke ought not to have bailed out the major investment banks, but rather should have let banks to realize the full extent of their losses and let the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shut down insolvent institutions and re-open them as entirely new banks. Field also tells Farley why he thinks the Fed’s current tightening of monetary policy is a mistake.--Follow Richard Field on Twitter https://twitter.com/tyillcFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj___--Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off:  https://fgpodcast.link/algorand--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) “Algorand Promotion”(00:20) Chapter: Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize(04:34) Was Bailing Out The Banks In 2008 A Mistake?(14:16) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out?(28:02) “Algorand Promotion”(29:47) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out?(30:39) Were Zero Rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) A Mistake?(37:03) "Insolvent Banks Can Still Lend," Says Richard Field(52:02) "We're Headed For Deflation"(54:37) If Hiking Rates Doesn't Curb Inflation, Why Do It?(57:01) Just How Weak Is The Housing Market?(01:18:05) Are The Major U.S. Banks Insolvent?(01:27:56) "The Financial System Now Is More Opaque Than Pre-2008"(01:37:34) Outro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack welcomes two investors who have navigated the turbulent markets over the past two years very well: Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman of Praetorian Capital and Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM). Kuppy explains why the Fed’s job is tough and will only get tougher if the price of oil surges once again. Porter and Kuppy tell Jack why they are very bullish on oil, coal, and uranium as an energy crisis threatens to tip the world into recession, and they discuss some individual companies that each of them thinks can benefit from this strange macro environment.Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code.--Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppyFollow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SeawolfcapFollow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COMFollow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceMore info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) “KEDM promotion”(00:51) Intro(01:07) Overall Macro Thesis(11:22) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve?(16:06) The Bull Case For Oil(22:57) The Sovereign Bond Bubble Is Bursting(30:28) "The Dollar's Strength Will Be Proven Wrong"(35:06) Shorting Stocks In This Macro Environment(40:16) Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Oil(55:51) Outlooks on Risk Assets and Earnings Season(1:02:41) A Market Crash(1:04:37) Special Info About Kuppy's Event Driven Monitor (KEDM)(1:11:19) “KEDM promotion”(1:12:16) Outro--Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.comDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

It’s banking season. With the big U.S. banks set to report their third quarter earnings, Jack speaks to veteran banker Chris Whalen about what investors should be looking for. Whalen, author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, argues that while some lines of business, such as investment banking and mortgage origination, have slowed rapidly, the core business of banking (taking in deposits and making loans) is stronger than its been since before 2020, because interest rates are significantly higher and banks can now make money on their loans.That being said, problems abound. Many small banks, Whalen argues, would be rendered insolvent if forced to sell their mortgage-backed securities (MBS), because the surge in interest rates has caused their market value to plunge. To hear Whalen’s unabridged thoughts on JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bank, Wells Fargo, Charles Schwab, Bank of America, and more, you’ll have to listen to the whole interview! Filmed on Friday, October 14.--Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://rb.gy/enkm0eFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) “Bittrex Ad”(00:10) Intro(00:57) Overall Outlook on U.S. Banks(03:27) "The Party In Investment Banking Is Over"(07:03) Loans Are Going Up, Deposits Are Going Down (The Opposite of Post-GFC Trend)(09:17) Jamie Dimon's Recession Warning(12:35) Where Will The Credit Losses Be?(16:49) Cost Of Funds As A Threat To Banking Business(21:23) Quantitative Tightening (QT)(23:18) “Bittrex Ad”(23:49) Winter For Investment Banking(27:48) The Biggest Risks(30:40) Interest Rate Risks As A Systemic Threat(35:53) Huge Losses In Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)(38:39) Can Banks Hide The Losses?(47:49) Bank of The Ozarks and Bank of America(55:00) How Can Banks Do Well In A Recession?(58:09) FinTech(59:30) Credit Suisse ($CS)(01:01:51) Outro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Filmed on October 11, 2022.When George Noble, creator of the $NOPE ETF and veteran hedge fund manager, appeared on Forward Guidance in May, he said that equities represented “return free risk” and that the bear market was just getting started. Now that equities are down over 10% since his last appearance, Noble returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack that he is extremely bearish, and in fact that he would be shocked if the S&P 500 weren’t under 3000 within 3 months (as of time of recording on October 11, 2022, the S&P 500 stood at 3850).__George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Timestamps:(00:00) intro(03:30) U.K. Gilt Crisis(16:20) The Labor Market(20:16) Energy and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance)(22:52) The Bull Market In Narratives Is Over(27:20) Just How Bearish Are You, George?'(30:51) The Bull Case(34:07) The Bond Market Is Wrong(39:02) Will A Recession Cause The Fed To Come To The Rescue?(47:03) Cash Is King(50:33) Bad News Is Bad News(58:51) When Will The Market Bottom?(01:09:28) Frogs In The Pot--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack Farley welcomes two financial heavyweights who, in Jack’s view, have predicted and understood this year’s sell-off in bonds more accurately and clearly than anyone else in finance: Harley Bassman, founder of the MOVE Index and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve.Bassman and Wang agree that it is likely that short-term interest rates are close to peaking, but that long-term bonds remain vulnerable to the triple threats of convexity, illiquidity, and duration.Wang argues that the illiquidity in the U.K. gilt market might be a harbinger for the other sovereign bond markets around the world (including the U.S. Treasury market), and Bassman shares several parts of fixed-income that he personally finds attractive, such as AA 22-year callable municipal debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Filmed on October 6th, 2022.--Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex--Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://rb.gy/q0eztpFollow Harley Bassman on Twitter https://rb.gy/8a1rs4Follow Simplify on Twitter https://rb.gy/pavfziFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Bassman is the creator of the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF ($PFIX), which, on a total return basis as of October 6th, 2022, is up 80% year-to-date and is up 35% since inception in September 2021. Wang’s writings can be found at https://rb.gy/oocxuz and Bassman’s latest commentary as “The Convexity Maven” can be found here: https://rb.gy/xbibuj.--Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://rb.gy/uxefzoGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) Introduction(01:00) Is The Sell-Off In Sovereign Bonds Finally Over?(11:57) Risks in The Stock Market(13:53) When Will Powell Pivot?(18:45) The Housing Market Is Already Broken(20:37) What Will Be The First To Break?(28:08) “Bittrex Ad”(28:42) What Will Be The First To Break?(28:45) How To Hedge Against A Bond Market Sell-Off(34:39) Bullish on High-Rated Long-Term Municipal Bonds(40:31) The Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Market(48:12) If Something Breaks, What Will The Fed Do?(52:33) Questions From The Audience(55:29) Recession Risk and Inverted Yield Curves(59:05) Joseph Wang's Take On What Happened In The U.K. Gilt Market(1:02:38) Will Commercial Banks Lose Money?(1:04:21) Reverse Repo Facility(1:05:07) Titanic: Has The Fed Hit An Iceberg?(1:08:17) How High Will The Fed Hike To?(1:09:31) Outro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset SummitGreg Steinmetz, investor and financial writer, joins Jack to share insights from his new book, American Rascal: How Jay Gould Built Wall Street’s Biggest Fortune. Steinmetz maps the financial skullduggery of Jay Gould, an infamous “robber baron” and investor whose market manipulations left an indelible mark on finance. Steinmetz tells Jack about Gould’s unscrupulous schemes in railroad stocks and gold, which destabilized the financial system and made him one of the most hated man in America. Invoking modern-day analogies such as Elon Musk and meme stocks, Steinmetz evaluates the legacy of America’s most daring and ruthless financier, and offers his view on what modern-day investors can learn from Gould’s life.--Follow Greg Steinmetz on TwitterFollow Jack Farley on Twitter Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter Follow Blockworks on TwitterGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily NewsletterMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter--(00:00) Introduction(00:16) Chapter: Why Jay Gould?(04:05) Gould's Greatest Misdeeds(07:10) Chapter: Cornering The Gold Market(14:18) Fragility of The Banking System During "Free Banking" Era(16:56) Gould's "Deposit Trick"(20:02) Tricks in the Gilded Age vs. Tricks in 2022(24:50) Jay Gould and the Media(27:29) Why Was Gould So Hated?(29:13) "Don't Fight the Fed"(33:48) The Railroad Business in the 19th Century(37:03) Investor Psychology(41:38) Lessons Learned From Jay Gould(45:01) Why Are There So Many Structurally Unprofitable Companies?(46:48) Gould and Valuation(49:59) Final Lessons From Gould's Legacy(52:46) Outro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.