Bloomberg Surveillance

Kelsey Berro, a fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan, discusses a softening labor market and the potential implications for the Fed's December decisions. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP, highlights how rising unemployment complicates Fed policy and the importance of low-income consumer spending. Angelo Zino, a senior equity analyst at CFRA, provides insights on NVIDIA’s earnings, suggesting they alleviate some AI bubble concerns, but financing and geopolitical factors remain critical. Together, they explore the future outlook for tech and labor markets.

Jeffrey Cleveland, Chief Economist at Payden & Rygel, analyzes the September jobs report, discussing wage growth and the implications for Fed policy amid rising unemployment risks. David Malpass, former President of the World Bank, addresses income inequality and proposes policy reforms to boost growth. Marta Norton, Chief Investment Strategist at Empower, shares insights on AI-driven market trends and the importance of fixed income. Together, they provide a deep dive into economic dynamics and investment strategies.

Listeners dive into how AI investments could be hiding cracks in consumer and labor markets, a topic explored by Win Thin. Mandeep Singh highlights the transformative impact of AI on productivity software, evolving tools into workflow agents. The discussion also touches on the competitive landscape, specifically the implications of Gemini 3 potentially challenging NVIDIA's dominance. With a mix of insightful analysis and lighthearted banter, the conversation reveals the intricacies of AI in today's market.

Alicia Levine, Head of Investment Strategy at BNY Wealth, predicts a market rally as recent pullbacks clear the way for growth, emphasizing tech shifts and earnings outlooks. Julian Emanuel, Chief Equity Strategist at Evercore ISI, discusses his bullish S&P 7750 target, citing macro conditions and data normalization. Libby Cantrill from PIMCO expresses skepticism about tariff dividend checks while exploring policies aimed at affordability and housing supply. Together, they unpack the current investment landscape and its implications for future markets.

Win Thin, Chief Economist at Bank of Nassau, offers insights on labor market trends and the potential for Fed easing, suggesting it could boost equities. Scott Diamond, Co-Head of Goldman Sachs' Municipal Bond Team, discusses the heavy issuance in the muni market, explaining strategies for accessing these bonds and predicting sustained issuance into 2026. Together, they dive into the macroeconomic landscape, including the impact of AI on capital expenditure and the evolving dynamics of the municipal bond market.

Tony Crescenzi, a fixed-income portfolio manager at PIMCO, shares insightful views on the current bond market, emphasizing the appeal of AA- yields in the 5-7% range. He delves into the historical significance of price stability for markets and discusses how it plays a crucial role in future forecasts. The conversation also touches on concerns surrounding weaker consumer earnings, providing a well-rounded perspective on economic trends. This thoughtful exchange offers a fresh lens on fixed-income investing strategies.

Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, analyzes the resilience of the U.S. consumer amidst rising credit stress and discusses the optimistic projections for AI's impact on earnings. Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, forecasts payroll dynamics and explores the delicate balance between growth and inflation concerns. Kay Herr, CIO at J.P. Morgan, offers insights on long-dated corporate debt and Fed policy expectations. Lastly, Rep. French Hill talks about tariff dividend checks and congressional priorities on housing affordability.

Stuart Kaiser, Head of US Equity Trading Strategy at Citi, dives into the implications of retail pullback and rising volatility, linking it to investors' concerns about Fed policies. He highlights potential event risks tied to key earnings reports, particularly from NVIDIA and Walmart. Randy Schwimmer, Vice Chair at Churchill Asset Management, discusses the growing interest in private credit as retail investors gain access to alternatives, and shares insights on how institutional interest is reshaping fundraising landscapes and deal pipelines.

Henrietta Treyz, a strategic advisor at Veda Partners and expert on U.S. political and economic dynamics, delves into the implications of a government shutdown on presidential priorities. She highlights how such events redirect focus internationally while predicting a renewed emphasis on economic matters as new data emerges. Additionally, Treyz discusses the unexpected longevity and productivity of older server technology, suggesting that these systems are still driving value, reshaping trends in tech investments.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, predicts mixed economic data post-shutdown and warns about inflation risks. Sarah Hunt, Chief Market Strategist at Alpine Saxon Woods, explores how Nvidia's earnings could influence market trends and the tech sector's health amidst consumer struggles. Terry Haines, Founder of Pangaea Policy, discusses the U.S. strategy for leveraging trade negotiations with China and India, particularly regarding Russia sanctions. Stephen Parker from J.P. Morgan offers insight on the AI-driven investment landscape and portfolio strategies for inflationary pressures.