Bloomberg Surveillance

Tom Keene dives into insightful market outlooks with Lisa Shalett, stressing the importance of realistic expectations for 2026 and the potential for double-digit earnings growth. Erin McLaughlin shares her diverse background, highlighting the impact of trade decisions on onshoring timelines. The discussion also touches on recent surprises in earnings and margins, signaling optimistic trends for the upcoming year. Expect a blend of expert analysis and intriguing market strategies!

Neil Shearing, the Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics, shares his concerns about the markets overestimating potential Fed rate cuts, citing resilient U.S. growth and inflation risks. He discusses how China's deflation and overinvestment could influence global prices. Meanwhile, Heidi Crebo-Rediker, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, analyzes the ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations, highlighting the challenges posed by hollow Russian promises and the need for stronger support for Ukraine's financing and reconstruction.

Binky Chadha, Chief Global Strategist at Deutsche Bank, shares his insights on the equity market and offers a bold S&P 500 target of 8,000, backed by a demand-supply framework and expected $1.4 trillion in buybacks. He warns that Q4 earnings will be crucial for validating this outlook. Sonal Desai argues against further Fed rate cuts, suggesting they could fuel inflation as demand rises. Angelo Zino addresses the evolving AI landscape, highlighting challenges in enterprise monetization despite rapid consumer adoption.

Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, discusses the looming risks of tariffs impacting $2.5 trillion in revenue and the potential for unfunded fiscal proposals. Dana D'Auria, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Envestnet Solutions, analyzes the recent market sell-off, framing it as a normal correction amid AI valuation concerns. Thomas Hoenig, former President of the Kansas City Fed, emphasizes the critical need for a consensus-driven Fed chair and questions the impact of Fed policies on longer-term yields amidst political pressures.

Explore a fascinating rebound in U.S. manufacturing as Nancy Lazar discusses how tax cuts and policies are boosting blue-collar jobs. Tom Keene sheds light on the critical role of job formation in the economy. Meanwhile, Michael Green's viral analysis on poverty lines reveals stark regional cost differences, emphasizing how existing metrics often underrepresent the struggles in high-cost areas. Tune in for insights that connect economic trends with real-world impacts!

This podcast features Nancy Lazar, Chief Global Economist at Piper Sandler, who breaks down the surprising resilience in corporate profits despite weak labor data. She discusses how consumer spending is rebounding and predicts stronger hiring as capital expenditures rise. Joining her is Michael Green, Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, who critiques the official poverty line's shortcomings and highlights the economic pressures of modern living costs. He also warns about the risks of benefit cliffs and their impact on households.

Jim Zelter, President of Apollo Global Management, shares insights on the strong M&A market and the resilience of the U.S. economy. Lindsey Piegza, Chief Economist at Stifel, discusses inflation risks and the Fed's upcoming decisions. Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex, highlights how optimism for rate cuts is benefiting small and mid-cap stocks. Matt Shay from the National Retail Federation analyzes holiday sales trends, inventory strategies, and consumer spending dynamics as retailers adapt to market challenges.

Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock, shares insights on AI-driven investments, warning of energy constraints while discussing market implications. Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, highlights the financial strain on lower-income consumers due to student debt and shifting spending patterns. Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, analyzes potential year-end rallies, retail trader behavior, and the landscape for fixed income returns, offering a detailed look at current market conditions.

Guests include Alastair Pinder, Global Equity Strategist at HSBC, discussing how AI adoption may shape equities and credit in 2026. Ian Harnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Absolute Strategy Research, warns of potential AI bubbles and macro risks. Amanda Lynam, from BlackRock, provides insights on the credit market, predicting peak defaults but urging selectivity. U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy analyzes consumer spending trends from Black Friday and discusses health care affordability proposals. Tune in for a mix of market insights and fiscal policy!

Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, discusses cautious optimism for 2026, urging diverse portfolios as consumer resilience continues. Henrietta Treyz, Co-founder of Veda Partners, analyzes President Trump's potential Fed pick and the pressing economic policies expected from Congress. Meanwhile, Brian Levitt, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco, highlights attractive opportunities in private credit and non-US markets, as well as how Fed expectations are influencing Bitcoin's volatility.