Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 19th, 2025
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Sep 19, 2025 
James Bullard, former St. Louis Fed President and current Dean of Purdue Business School, dives into the Federal Reserve's rate outlook and labor market dynamics, discussing his insights from a recent White House meeting. Jeannette Lowe, Director of Policy Research at Strategas, unpacks the political implications of trade policies and U.S. tariffs, exploring the intersection of economy and governance. Together, they provide a nuanced perspective on navigating inflation versus employment, highlighting crucial developments in the economic landscape.
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White House Meeting And Fed Views
- James Bullard described his White House meeting as a broad, transparent conversation without detailed disclosures.
- He said the Fed decision looked like a sequence of three moves through year-end driven by payroll revisions.
Payroll Revisions Tilted Fed Dovish
- Bullard highlighted that downward revisions to non-farm payrolls made the Fed more dovish and pulled October into play.
- Markets priced significant cuts by year-end, giving the Fed optionality if data reverses.
Neutral Rate Likely Lower Than Markets Think
- Bullard argued neutral rates remain fairly low, perhaps around 3.25%, making current policy still above neutral.
- That implies the Fed has room to cut while still exerting downward pressure on inflation.