Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Lisa Shalett & Darren Shames
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Sep 23, 2025 Explore the skepticism surrounding analysts' margin expansion forecasts for 2026. Lisa Shalett raises questions about potential barriers like tariffs and consumer behavior. Dive into foreign investors' perspectives on U.S. policy and Fed governance risks, with Darren Shames discussing scenario analysis and its ties to a key Supreme Court case. This conversation offers a critical lens on market expectations and economic realities.
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Research Debate At Morgan Stanley
- Tom Keene praises Morgan Stanley for fostering collegial debate inside research teams.
- He cites Lisa Shalett and Mike Wilson's public disagreement as a hallmark of that culture.
Margins May Be Too Optimistic
- Lisa Shalett disputes Morgan Stanley's optimistic margin outlook for 2026 and expects deliverability challenges.
- She warns tariffs and consumer pushback could force companies to absorb costs, compressing margins.
Act On Tariff-Driven Margin Risk
- Watch which firms absorb tariff costs versus pass them to consumers to assess margin risk.
- Reallocate exposure away from sectors likely to face margin compression if consumers push back on price increases.