Eurodollar University

Concerns are rising over the shadow banking system and its capability to mask financial vulnerabilities. The discussion dives into how shadow banks operate, particularly their funding models and the riskier borrowers they target. Recent liquidity issues exposed these banks during a crucial stretch in early 2023. Insights from S&P Global reveal increasing defaults and loose covenants, hinting at deeper credit problems. The implications for the overall monetary system could be significant, with the potential for systemic risk lurking beneath the surface.

Market predictions indicate the Fed may cut rates further, revealing a disconnect between their policies and underlying economic signals. Negative swap spreads suggest expectations for significantly lower short-term rates, while Goldman Sachs highlights the current yield curve mirroring past zero-rate environments. Jeff argues that the market's consensus for ultra-low rates stems from economic weakness rather than inflation. Lastly, he provides insights into the potential impacts on the 10-year yield, predicting it could settle around 2–2.5% amid strong market conviction.

A sad report as Argentina's badly-needed chainsaw is running into a bigger one - the eurodollar. President Milie was forced to admit the market is in panic-mode as the peso plunges in a way that's all-too-familiar for eurodollar watchers. Push comes to shove, the latter simply has the biggest chainsaw and it is using the thing that the world needs to be watching carefully. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Argentina Assets Slide as Milei Summons Cabinet After Defeathttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-08/argentina-bonds-slump-on-milei-s-defeat-in-buenos-aires-voteBloomberg Milei Defies Forecasts So Far as Argentina’s Peso Strengthenshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/milei-defies-forecasts-so-far-as-argentina-s-peso-strengthens-usd-arsAP Argentina President Milei suffers crushing defeat in Buenos Aires provincial electionhttps://apnews.com/article/argentina-election-javier-milei-cristina-fernandez-peronism-fecba6d106eb2c0f2440e9fca298e470Cato Deregulation in Argentina: Milei Takes “Deep Chainsaw” to Bureaucracy and Red Tapehttps://www.cato.org/free-society/spring-2025/deregulation-argentina-milei-takes-deep-chainsaw-bureaucracy-red-tapehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Foreigners continue their epic buying binge in USTs and US$ assets, totally defying the narrative everyone around the world is ditching America. Despite the intent of so many to make this political, there is nothing political about this, purely economics (small "e"). We keep more evidence and data showing what those really are, and foreigners know it only too well. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre**************************************Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly ThemeIn a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on.If you don’t have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University’s comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. To sample or sign up straight away, go to:  eurodollaruniversity.substack.com**************************************Bloomberg Foreign Holdings of Treasuries Climb to Record Levelhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/foreign-holdings-of-treasuries-reach-record-even-as-china-sellshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For the first time ever, the Bank of Japan is selling stocks out of its vast portfolio. The announcement shocked the markets though mostly the media. Is this what it seems to be, or does the Japanese government have a trick up its sleeve? A crystal clear answer can be found among Japan's households as this is one of the best examples ever of modern "monetary" policy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------BoJ Statementhttps://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2025/k250919a.pdfBloomberg BOJ Unveils ETF Sales Plan, Keeps Door Open for October Hikehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/boj-keeps-rates-steady-as-ishiba-s-departure-adds-to-uncertaintyBloomberg Long Bonds Are a Buy as Contagion Fears Ease, TS Lombard Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/long-bonds-are-a-buy-as-contagion-fears-ease-ts-lombard-saysMoneyWise Rice prices have skyrocketed in Japan — and farmers warn that ‘everyone who eats’ that disaster could be nearhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/rice-prices-skyrocketed-japan-farmers-172500461.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The latest discussions reveal a stark decline in US housing construction, hitting its lowest point since May 2020. Homebuilders are cutting prices like never before, yet mortgage rates have surprisingly dipped to their lowest in a year. This peculiar trend suggests that lower rates may indicate a demand for safety rather than stimulus. The podcast also highlights a surge in mortgage refinances amid weak purchase activity, pointing to economic signals that suggest trouble ahead.

What a massive mess. No clear direction. Dots all over he place. And that's just the start. We've got Canada, too. Replay of FOMC decision livestream as Pringles win again.

China's yield curve is being reshaped in a way that has created confusion across the spectrum. Even policymakers at the PBOC are talking about the need to do something. However, market behavior is consistent with what we're seeing around the rest of the world and how it all relates to China finding a way out of its mess and hitting upon a real recovery. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see what you've been missing - and it's A LOT - then join us at Eurodollar University. Our memberships have got you covered where it comes to mastering monetary mechanics. You won't find this anywhere else. https://www.eurodollar.university/memberships---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg China Bond Slump Fuels Speculation PBOC Will Resume Debt Buyinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-14/china-bond-slump-fuels-speculation-pboc-will-resume-debt-buyingReuters Chinese money flows into bonds even as central bank warns of riskshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinese-money-flows-into-bonds-even-central-bank-warns-risks-2024-06-27/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For the first time ever, French bond spreads are higher than those seen in Italy (both compared to Germany). This isn't just about "fiscal consolidation" worries and France's government budget, the real issue behind everything is economic differentials. Those need to be turned around and soon else France risks being the new, well, Italy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------NYT French Government Collapses, Again, Deepening Paralysishttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/world/europe/france-vote-government-collapse.htmlCNBC France’s Macron names loyalist Lecornu as new prime ministerhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/france-macron-names-lecornu-new-prime-minister.htmlCNBC France’s borrowing costs rise after Fitch downgrade — and there could be more bad news aheadhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/frances-borrowing-costs-rise-after-fitch-downgrade-.htmlBloomberg French Borrowing Costs Top Italy’s in Historic Market Shifthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/french-borrowing-costs-top-italy-s-in-historic-market-shifthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The oil business is heading for a big bust, putting Texas in the crosshairs. While that's obviously not good for the economy as a whole, energy does tend to be a leading indicators and when the jobs starting being lost in the space in a big way it's a big red flag. Consumers know it, given what was also just reported from them, too. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre---------------------------------------------------------------------------In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on.If you don’t have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University’s comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/---------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU