Eurodollar University

Oil explodes at the worst time imaginable. There is no good time, of course, here in June 2025 the economy is dealing with tariffs, tariff-distortions, not to mention a noticeable amount of fragility already. Is rising oil going to spark the inflation reignition the Fed has been fearing?Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

When did the dollar stop being a dollar? Most people might answer August 15, 1971, but a more accurate answer would be around a hundred years before then. There isn't exact date, just the most consequential evolution no one has ever heard of. The good news is that evolution doesn't stop. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Centshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why are LT rates rising? Most people say it is the long overdue reckoning. After resisting inflation, the Fed, most of all insane debt levels for years, the chickens have finally come home to roost for longer-dated Treasury notes and bonds. And that would mean the market was wrong about all those factors up until now. What IS happening on the curve?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Negative downgrades to the world. Negative rates among major bonds already. Negative prices for consumers - here in the United States. The deflationary signals keep picking up. More to the point, all of this adds up to what markets like swaps have been saying for years. And that's the bad news. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWorld Bank https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospectshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Central bankers are being forced to reckon with their inflation biases which are not standing up to reality. Deflationary consequences are breaking out worldwide, either in the form of increasingly layoff-riddled labor markets or outright price deflation; sometimes both. The global race to the bottom for interest rates is spreading as acknowledgement of economic facts rather than Economics fantasy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/RBI went full-blown shock and awe. Yet another major global central bank previously fixated on "inflation" abruptly and aggressively joining the race to the bottom. For India, it wasn't  heavy rate cuts this time. Indian Officials said they want to shore up confidence; OK, so how bad is confidence if they fell "shock and awe" is necessary to shore it up?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBBC India central bank delivers sharp rate cut as growth and inflation fallhttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62vdq6g945oTimes of Indiahttps://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/bank-loans-to-nbfcs-slows-sharply/articleshow/121557368.cmshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

ST rates have dropped sharply in the past few weeks, the past few days, in particular. The 4w Treasury bill now yields less than IOR, repo, even the Fed's RRP "floor." That's not all: the 3m10s spread has reinverted again. At the same time another major central bank just hit the panic button, going with a 50-bps cut only a few months after getting started. Where is this all heading? Not in Jay's direction.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The payroll estimates for May were a total mess. The headline was weak, revisions make it totally unreliable anyway, and it only gets worse from there. A lot worse. The labor market is breaking down and it's getting uncomfortable and dangerous.

The ECB recently made headlines with its eighth rate cut, while the global economy appears shaky. Surprisingly, many are fixated on political figures like Trump and Elon, missing crucial economic shifts. The Fed may be closer to joining this trend of rate adjustments than most realize. Concerns are rising over labor market weaknesses, especially in Germany, contrasting sharply with the Fed's more cautious approach. It's a pivotal moment for central banks globally, with the risk landscape growing ever more complex.

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/For a week when the labor market and its data are in the bright, blaring spotlight, it did NOT get off to a good start. Not only ADP, also ISM. Both together showed the economy continued losing momentum and vitality in May - even with tariff delays and a stock market rebound. Both ended p with some of the worst numbers for each in years. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisADP May 2025https://adpemploymentreport.com/Bloomberg US Hiring Cools to Slowest Pace in Two Years, ADP Data Showhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/us-hiring-falls-to-slowest-pace-in-two-years-adp-data-showBloomberg US Services Activity Contracts for First Time in Nearly a Yearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/us-services-activity-contracts-for-first-time-in-nearly-a-yearCNBC Trump says ‘Too Late’ Powell must lower interest rates after weak ADP jobs reporthttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/trump-powell-adp-jobs.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU