Eurodollar University The Company With Better Data Than the Government Just Sent a Dire Warning
Dec 3, 2025
Procter & Gamble has issued a stark warning about declining U.S. sales, reflecting a troubling trend for consumer products. Recent consumer sentiment surveys reveal record-low expectations, indicating widespread economic concern. The analysis delves into a K-shaped recovery, where some thrive while others struggle. Holiday shopping data shows consumers are paying more but receiving less, leading to potential inventory issues. This weakening consumer behavior could impact Federal Reserve policies and future spending patterns.
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P&G Signals Real Consumer Weakness
- Procter & Gamble reported U.S. sales fell significantly in October and likely continued into November, signaling real weakness in everyday consumer purchases.
- Jeff Snider argues P&G's broad product mix gives it better real-time insight into consumer activity than aggregate government statistics.
Surveys Match Falling Spending
- Consumer sentiment surveys from the Conference Board and University of Michigan showed sharp declines and record-low assessments of current conditions in November.
- Snider links those weak surveys to real spending pullbacks and rising expectations of unemployment.
K-Shape Explains Uneven Recovery
- The economy is K-shaped: top-end spending remains while a growing share of people fall into the weaker lower part of the K.
- Snider emphasizes that recovery hasn't returned enough jobs, leaving millions stuck below pre-crisis levels.