Eurodollar University

This discussion dives into alarming trends in the monetary system, highlighting record lows in interest rate swap spreads that signal potential deflation. There's a deep exploration of negative swap spreads reflecting market fragility and the implications of recent volatility. The surprising decline in Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings reveals economic instability fueled by falling gasoline prices. Overall, there’s a focus on the precarious state of the financial landscape and systemic vulnerabilities that could lead to future turmoil.

Why are Treasury yields rising unexpectedly during a liquidity crisis? The podcast delves into the chaos in the Treasury market, highlighting forced sell-offs and the mechanics of dollar shortages. It critiques prevailing narratives around financial turbulence and stresses the emerging risks in wholesale markets, particularly the repo market. Alarming signs of a global dollar shortage are explored, including the depreciation of the Chinese yuan and its implications for the financial system. Understanding these intricacies reveals the potential for a full-blown crisis.

Leading CEOs warn of a looming recession, echoing concerns that America might already be in one. Critical bond market signals align with these fears, showing signs of distress. Consumer credit data adds to the uncertainty, indicating potential liquidations ahead. Predictions shift as economists adjust GDP growth forecasts and elevate recession probabilities, analyzing the Federal Reserve's influence on market dynamics. The airline industry, in particular, appears vulnerable amidst these economic strains.

Asia recently faced a wave of financial turmoil, marked by severe margin calls and distressed sales. The discussion highlights Japan's critical role in these developments. An unexpected selloff in Treasuries has stirred confusion among mainstream analysts, signaling deeper economic issues. The podcast also delves into the interconnectedness of global markets, illustrating how instability in Asia can ripple through economies worldwide.

Steve Van Metre, a savvy financial analyst known for decoding economic trends, delves into the alarming rise in unemployment and its overshadowing of March payroll estimates. He discusses how machine algorithms are accelerating market liquidations, triggering notable declines in oil prices. The conversation also examines the precarious balance of economic stimulus and recession risks, emphasizing the necessity of strategic fiscal policy. Finally, Van Metre critiques the misleading interpretations of labor market statistics amidst growing concerns about an economic downturn.

George Gammon, a savvy real estate investor and macroeconomic trend expert, dives into the alarming drop in global interest rates. He discusses the regulatory costs impacting housing prices and how changes in lending could drastically alter home values. The conversation also tackles economic turbulence, media influence on consumer sentiment, and banks' cautious strategies. Plus, Gammon highlights the upcoming Rebel Capitalist conference, emphasizing the need for insightful discussions among fellow thinkers. Tune in for intriguing insights!

Downgrade fever is here. It's coming in from private sources as well as central banks, in the US as well as outside of it. The global economy's loss of momentum has become too much to ignore any longer. While that just means everyone will blame tariffs, all those are doing is waking everyone up to what's been happening for some time already.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisAtlanta Fed GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowBloomberg Fed’s Goolsbee Warns of Tariff-Induced Pullback in Spendinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/fed-s-goolsbee-warns-of-tariff-induced-pullback-in-spendingCNBC #RecessionIndicator: Young Americans are losing confidence in the economy — and it shows onlinehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/27/young-americans-are-losing-confidence-in-economy-and-it-shows-online.htmlCNBC First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC surveyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.htmlBloomberg Pimco Favors Stable Returns From Bonds as Recession Risk Buildshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/pimco-favors-stable-returns-from-bonds-as-recession-risk-buildsOECD March 2025https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025_89af4857-en.htmlOECD December 2024https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2024/12/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2024-issue-2_67bb8fac.htmlOECD November 2010https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2010/12/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2010-issue-2_g1ghbb4a/eco_outlook-v2010-2-en.pdfBloomberg France’s 2025 Economic Growth Forecast to Be Cut, Minister Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/france-s-2025-economic-growth-forecast-to-be-cut-minister-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The selloff in the riskiest corners of the credit market has been significant over the past month, yet there are worries it is nowhere near enough. Some have called it the financial system's gray swan, the most glaring inconsistency nearly everyone is simply ignoring or trying to paper over. As the economy deteriorates - with more evidence today - the risk to the system only gets bigger and louder. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Recession Fear Raises ‘Gray Swan’ Risk for Bond Investorshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/us-recession-worries-raise-gray-swan-risk-for-bond-investorshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The podcast dives into the fallout from the AI bubble bursting, highlighting how this collapse is shaking investor confidence and fueling recession fears. It examines the ripple effects on consumer spending and credit markets, warning of a potential economic downturn. The discussion links these recent developments to historical GDP trends, underscoring the significance of this moment in economic history. With downgrades to growth forecasts being a key topic, the implications of this bubble's end echo throughout the economy.

With recession fears still growing, the government just reported strange results for a key set of economic data. And it's contradicted by a range of other reports, starting with more retailer warnings like the one from Lululemon about store traffic. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Lululemon Plunges With Outlook Hurt by US Consumer Worrieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-27/lululemon-s-us-struggles-weigh-on-sales-outlook-for-coming-yearhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU