Eurodollar University

While everyone else is glued to Nvidia, the results from Home Depot and Target will have far more to say about the markets and a lot more. Plus others like TJ Maxx, Bitcoin and the surprising Fed minutes that has a lot to say about the status of December's rate cut.Bloomberg Wary Stock Bulls Eye Walmart, Target for Clues to Consumer Healthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-17/wary-stock-bulls-eye-walmart-target-for-clues-to-consumer-health?srnd=phx-economics-v2Economic Times TGT stock falls today as Target cuts guidance and predicts weak holiday saleshttps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/tgt-stock-falls-today-as-target-cuts-guidance-and-predicts-weak-holiday-sales/articleshow/125437666.cms?from=mdrRead more at:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/tgt-stock-falls-today-as-target-cuts-guidance-and-predicts-weak-holiday-sales/articleshow/125437666.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppstYahooFinance Target cuts earnings guidance, warns about high prices, and predicts a weak holiday seasonhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/target-cuts-earnings-guidance-warns-about-high-prices-and-predicts-a-weak-holiday-season-113001475.htmlCNBC TJ Maxx and Marshalls owner hikes outlook as CEO says holiday season is off to a ‘strong start’https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/tjx-companies-tjx-earnings-q3-2026.htmlFOMC Minuteshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20251029.pdf

Concerns about the economy's stability are rising, with industry giants warning of 'garbage lending' reminiscent of 2006. Hedge fund redemptions signal increasing market stress, and unconventional lending practices are under scrutiny. The repo market is tightening, raising fears of liquidity crises. As risk appetite diminishes, even top firms beg the Fed for more reserves. Additionally, low interest rates could persist due to the accumulation of risks. A perfect storm is brewing, and Wall Street is on alert.

Europe's labor market faces a precarious flat Beveridge moment, with Switzerland's GDP contracting, raising alarms about global economic health. German economists challenge the rosy narratives, predicting a bleak outlook due to structural woes and demographic shifts. Employment growth remains alarmingly weak, masked by misleading marginal GDP improvements. As Swiss unemployment rises and inflation stagnates, market signals hint at potential negative interest rates, contradicting central bank optimism. The ripple effects are felt globally, with similar trends emerging in major economies.

China is experiencing an unprecedented investment crash, with alarming stats on household lending confirming a major shift. The podcast digs into how post-COVID overproduction led to declining prices and why stimulus measures have failed. It explores Beijing's new anti-involution policy that has forced cuts in investment and spending. As retail sales and industrial output slow, the People's Bank of China signals an end to the stimulus era. This situation in China serves as a cautionary tale for the global economy.

Steve Van Metre, a macro markets and credit cycle expert, joins the conversation as he analyzes the recent turmoil in the financial markets. He discusses repo strains and how rising rates signal deeper liquidity issues. Bitcoin's decline and WTI's brief contango offer insights into market health and risk-taking. Steve emphasizes that the Fed's actions are more about sentiment than direct economic impact. With rising delinquencies and investor redemptions, he warns of an inevitable credit cycle downturn that could shake up the landscape.

Verizon is reportedly looking to cut 15% of its workforce, pointing to a dramatic shift in the labor market. The discussion dives into the dynamics of the Beveridge curve, showcasing how declining demand is fuelling rising unemployment rates. Recent data reveals surging layoffs and fragile consumer sentiment, suggesting a looming economic urgency. The implications stretch to the credit market, hinting at greater risks ahead. With tightening liquidity and potential Fed asset purchases on the horizon, there's much at stake for the economy.

The collapse of another private credit firm has raised alarms about widespread mistrust in shadow banking. Major players like BlackRock face staggering write-downs, revealing the precarious state of private loans. Rising defaults and opaque financing tactics are amplifying concerns. The podcast dives into alarming trends, such as record subprime auto loan delinquencies. With deteriorating trust, there's a risk of contagion, potentially shaking the entire financial landscape. A closer look at these issues offers crucial insights into the current economic climate.

Wendy's plans to close hundreds of locations due to weak consumer demand, raising concerns about the fast food industry. McDonald's also admits to falling guest counts, highlighting a shift towards affordability. A contrast emerges between U.S. and Chinese responses to reduced demand. Job losses in late October signal further economic strain, while small business optimism hits a six-month low. Trends in consumer credit show a significant pullback. Ultimately, the podcast explores the troubling divergence between stock performance and economic reality.

The discussion dives into the federal government's proposal for a tariff dividend amid worsening economic conditions. It explores how this plan targets low-income Americans, reflecting growing public discontent. The impact of highlighting stock market gains alienates struggling workers and may even push younger generations toward socialism. Surveys indicate rising fears of unemployment and a potential recession, while the tariff dividend is seen as an admission of labor-market deterioration. Ultimately, this symbolic gesture does little to address the root economic issues.

Steve Van Metre, a market and credit analyst, joins to unpack the alarming collapse of CarMax and its implications for the credit system. They discuss how plunging consumer confidence and crumbling job security signal broader distress in the auto sector. As lenders tighten subprime auto risk, they highlight the ripple effects reaching prime borrowers. Furthermore, the tightening liquidity in supply chains and the increasing fears of layoffs present a critical outlook on the economy, revealing potential for a wider credit crisis.