Eurodollar University

Fedex is a global bellwether for good reason. What the company said about the economic environment at the start of Q3 was...nothing. But in choosing not to forecast anything, the company said a lot especially given the evidence that has come piling up. We haven't seen consumer spending and incomes like this in America since 2020. That's not a typo. Flat Beveridge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis*******To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps******https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Big moves in yields, especially at the front. While twos are making a move on their own, it's the very front at the first-in-line bills that draws our attention. Steepening has been given a boost by some ugly recent data from right where it counts - incomes and spending.Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre*****If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/************To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps******https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

AI shouldn't provoke fear and anxiety, it should raise expectations for regular 4-day workweek with 3-day weekends. Artificial Intelligence represents a potential major leap in labor productivity. The end result isn't a desolate hellscape which leaves everyone unemployed, it's instead something economics (small "e") is very familiar with. webinar link https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swapsEurodollar University's Make it Make Cents*******To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:https://event.webinarjam.com/register/29/4yzg6cx2******https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:https://event.webinarjam.com/register/29/4yzg6cx2It never was entirely tariff distortions. Everyone had tried to dismiss Q1 as an anomaly. Later revisions have instead shown there is indeed a shift happening among US consumers. Even Winnebago agrees and RVs are the canary for the canary in the macro coalmine. Beveridge is getting closer. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US GDP Revised Lower as Consumers Slash Services Spendinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/us-gdp-revised-lower-as-consumers-slash-recreation-spendingWinnebago https://winnebago.gcs-web.com/static-files/e0acc2ce-9a34-456d-8f68-a8235351493aWSJ Winnebago Cuts Guidance as Soft Demand Hurts RV Retail Saleshttps://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/winnebago-cuts-revenue-profit-outlook-after-declines-0b3a9053https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The housing market keeps spitting out alarming signs of a growing bust. Sales are down huge, prices are actually falling - and that's the government's estimates. Most of all, this is directly connected to the economy and especially jobs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis******If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/******Bloomberg Bond Traders Boost Bets US 10-Year Yield Will Dive Toward 4%https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-24/bond-traders-boost-bets-that-us-10-year-yield-to-dive-toward-4Bloomberg US New-Home Sales Drop by Most Since 2022 on Poor Affordabilityhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-25/us-new-home-sales-drop-to-seven-month-low-on-poor-affordabilityConference Board https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidenceReuters https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-confidence-deteriorates-june-2025-06-24/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Swiss francs are soaring again. This isn't a "sell America" trade (which doesn't exist), or the crashing dollar (also doesn't exist). The monetary system remains on edge and now we know why. The shocking full story of what really happened in April and how close we were to the shadow's edge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Florida has long been the housing canary in the national real estate coalmine. The situation in the Sunshine State is anything but sunny with prices even outright declining in six key areas. That's just where the downturn is most pronounced right now. The excuses for an increasingly ugly housing market have worn out as the real story is finally being revealed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIf you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Kenny's Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/@KenMcElroyVideo w/Jeffhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDQunoS96X4FRB Vice Chair Michelle Bowman Unintended Policy Shifts and Unexpected Consequenceshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bowman20250623a.htmNAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 0.8% Increase in Mayhttps://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-0-8-increase-in-mayNewsweek Most Florida Housing Markets Are in Troublehttps://www.newsweek.com/most-florida-housing-markets-trouble-2086554Bloomberg US Spring Homebuying Season Has Its Weakest Start in Five Yearshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-14/us-spring-homebuying-season-has-its-weakest-start-in-five-yearsBloomberg US Home Resales Stay Sluggish on Affordability Constraintshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-23/us-home-resales-stay-sluggish-on-affordability-constraintsNAR May 2024https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-chief-economist-lawrence-yun-predicts-falling-long-term-interest-rates-rising-existing-homehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Fed is going cut...in July. Period. Book it. Conditions have drastically changed and the officials shift is now underway. Rates are going down everywhere, including in DC.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreCNBC Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as Julyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/20/fed-governor-waller-says-central-bank-could-cut-rates-as-early-as-july.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A lot of people, maybe even a majority, find the idea of a two-decade long depression too far-fetched to take seriously. Something like that could never, ever happen. Could it? The problem is most everyone's idea of what a depression is needs to be corrected - another huge piece left missing by Economics. What is a depression? Way too familiar. Eurodollar University's Make It Make CentsNBER Cycle Dateshttps://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractionsNYT Sept 19, 1873https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1873/09/19/issue.htmlDavid A. Wells The Economic Disturbances Since 1873https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Popular_Science_Monthly/Volume_31/July_1887/The_Economic_Disturbances_Since_1873_IHenry George Causes of Business Depressionhttps://bibliotek1.dk/english/by-henry-george/articles-and-speeches/causes-of-business-depressionJM Keynes A Tract on Monetary Reformhttps://ia902905.us.archive.org/35/items/tractonmonetaryr0000keyn/tractonmonetaryr0000keyn.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/It's back. No one wanted it, but it's here. Switzerland is first to revisit this dreaded milestone. Others aren't far behind, including now Sweden. The Swedes are facing exactly the sort of rough circumstances that made the Swiss National Bank take this drastic step. And if you think the Fed's dots have separate the FOMC from all this, look no further than one year ago. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSNB Press Release Policy Decisionhttps://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20250619_2CNBC International SNB Martin Schlegelhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY2-lrxsJfMRiksbank Press Release Policy Decisionhttps://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-and-published/notices-and-press-releases/press-releases/2025/policy-rate-is-cut-to-2-per-cent/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU