Eurodollar University

Since the July payroll report came out, something seems to have snapped out there in the offshore eurodollar world. Two key sources are signaling a turn toward substantial tightening. Here we go over what those signals are, how to read them in context, and what they mean going forward. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see what you've been missing - and it's A LOT - then join us at Eurodollar University. Our memberships have got you covered where it comes to mastering monetary mechanics. You won't find this anywhere else. https://www.eurodollar.university/memberships---------------------------------------------------------------------------FRBNY Triparty Repohttps://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/data-hubhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/sniderYesterday's 10-year note auction produced something we've never seen before, and it totally upended everyone's expectations if not more. With the macro climate being what it is, the 10s sale was a "victim" of the increasingly prominent curve reshaping we're seeing everywhere. And "everywhere" absolutely includes the long bond, the 30-year maturity the mainstream has its sights on. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Big Banks Nearly Get Shut Out of Treasury 10-Year Auctionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-10/big-banks-nearly-get-shut-out-of-treasury-10-year-auctionBloomberg Trump Isn’t the Only Reason the Price of Money Is Risinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-11/podcast-trump-isn-t-the-only-reason-the-price-of-money-is-risinghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQSubscribe @21Shares on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@21sharesFollow @21Shares on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/21shares_/Follow @21Shares on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/21shares-us/Follow @21Shares on X: https://x.com/21Shares_USIt wasn't actually the record downgrade to payrolls that stood out the most. Far more important, the QCEW confirms there is a very good chance a recession began LAST YEAR. Not just the forgot how to grow kind, a full-blown one even mainstream Economists and the NBER will be recognizing. The evidence continues to show we all went from forgot how to hire to remember how to fire. The Fed's fifty next week is all but set.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the economy ‘is weakening’https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-economy.htmlBloomberg US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimatehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/us-payrolls-estimated-to-be-911-000-lower-in-year-through-marchStanley Fischer The Great Recession: Moving Aheadhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20140811a.htmChristopher Waller Let’s Get On with Ithttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20250828a.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUDisclaimerThis video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

A record downward revision to payrolls adds to the evidence the US labor market is in dire shape while also heading in the wrong direction. In this video, we go over not just those details but also look ahead at the possible financial consequences should conditions continue to deteriorate in the way they appear to be. What else might be triggered by job losses in the real economy? More than a few possibilities. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Gold prices are soaring, but it's not due to inflation. Instead, the copper-to-gold ratio has plummeted to record lows, signaling rising uncertainty in the economic landscape. The podcast dives into how stagnant copper prices coupled with gold's ascent reflect changing market expectations. Additionally, insights from the latest FRBNY survey reveal troubling job finding expectations, adding depth to the discussion on potential economic deterioration. This analysis offers a fresh perspective on the financial climate and its implications.

For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQThere was one key stat from this week which helps explain the increasingly desperate state of the US labor market, offering background behind the "unexpectedly" weak payroll numbers from Friday. August's estimate was its lowest since...May 2009. Given the connection to employment, it all fits together with so many other signals including record low copper-to-gold. Yep, record low. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQ-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ISM Services August 2025https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/august/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUDisclaimerThis video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Payrolls were ugly, a big miss for August on top of revisions to June which pushed the monthly change negative. If that wasn't enough, a rising unemployment rate after a crash in full-time employment. Plus, a plunge in Canadian payrolls punctuate the turning point for North American jobs. Rates were down sharply, no surprise. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Themehttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/Eurodollar University's Deep Dive Analysishttps://eurodollar.university---------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's not what everyone says, watch what they do. Big companies and big banks (JPM, too) are making heavy preparations for sharply lower interest rates. The former, in particular, have basically revived the long-dormant commercial paper market in a clear sign. At the same time, US and global banks are remaking their balance sheets in critical and unambiguous ways. Even some Fed officials are now seeing it, too. R is back to being an ultra-low STAR.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Themehttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg America Inc. Swaps Decades for Days in Rush to Commercial Paperhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/30-years-try-30-days-america-inc-flocks-to-commercial-paperCNN Be prepared for 7% interest rates, warns Jamie Dimonhttps://www.cnn.com/2023/10/02/investing/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-7-percent-interest-rate-recessionFRBNY John Williams All the Stars We Cannot Seehttps://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil250825Bloomberg Won Advances After BOK Governor Defends Currency Interventionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-28/won-gains-after-bok-rhee-s-comments-on-forex-intervention-goalshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Dollar Tree says after seeing a major influx of especially middle-income Americans in its stores, it won't be able to raise prices. The latest jobs data leaves absolutely no doubt why that is. According to the turnover stats, the US labor market LOST jobs in June and July.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WSJ Dollar Tree Shares Fall as Tariffs Dampen Near-Term Outlookhttps://www.wsj.com/business/retail/dollar-tree-boosts-outlook-as-sales-jump-c48b7461WSJ Dollar General Draws Shoppers Across Income Levels, Raises Outlookhttps://www.wsj.com/business/retail/dollar-general-boosts-outlook-after-earnings-rise-95e4bff8https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After trading conspicuously sideways for the past four months, gold has finally broken out of its range. However, at the same time the US dollar exchange value is threatening to do the same - by moving HIGHER. It's a bad combination: rising gold, higher dollar, and falling interest rates. If any doubts remain about what's really happening, the copper-to-gold ratio leaves everyone no doubt.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Themehttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Why Investors Can’t Seem to Get Enough of Goldhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/gold-price-record-why-bullion-is-safe-haven-amid-tariffs-inflationhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU