Eurodollar University

Steve Van Metre, a savvy financial analyst known for decoding economic trends, delves into the alarming rise in unemployment and its overshadowing of March payroll estimates. He discusses how machine algorithms are accelerating market liquidations, triggering notable declines in oil prices. The conversation also examines the precarious balance of economic stimulus and recession risks, emphasizing the necessity of strategic fiscal policy. Finally, Van Metre critiques the misleading interpretations of labor market statistics amidst growing concerns about an economic downturn.

George Gammon, a savvy real estate investor and macroeconomic trend expert, dives into the alarming drop in global interest rates. He discusses the regulatory costs impacting housing prices and how changes in lending could drastically alter home values. The conversation also tackles economic turbulence, media influence on consumer sentiment, and banks' cautious strategies. Plus, Gammon highlights the upcoming Rebel Capitalist conference, emphasizing the need for insightful discussions among fellow thinkers. Tune in for intriguing insights!

Downgrade fever is here. It's coming in from private sources as well as central banks, in the US as well as outside of it. The global economy's loss of momentum has become too much to ignore any longer. While that just means everyone will blame tariffs, all those are doing is waking everyone up to what's been happening for some time already.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisAtlanta Fed GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowBloomberg Fed’s Goolsbee Warns of Tariff-Induced Pullback in Spendinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/fed-s-goolsbee-warns-of-tariff-induced-pullback-in-spendingCNBC #RecessionIndicator: Young Americans are losing confidence in the economy — and it shows onlinehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/27/young-americans-are-losing-confidence-in-economy-and-it-shows-online.htmlCNBC First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC surveyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.htmlBloomberg Pimco Favors Stable Returns From Bonds as Recession Risk Buildshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/pimco-favors-stable-returns-from-bonds-as-recession-risk-buildsOECD March 2025https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025_89af4857-en.htmlOECD December 2024https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2024/12/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2024-issue-2_67bb8fac.htmlOECD November 2010https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2010/12/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2010-issue-2_g1ghbb4a/eco_outlook-v2010-2-en.pdfBloomberg France’s 2025 Economic Growth Forecast to Be Cut, Minister Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/france-s-2025-economic-growth-forecast-to-be-cut-minister-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The selloff in the riskiest corners of the credit market has been significant over the past month, yet there are worries it is nowhere near enough. Some have called it the financial system's gray swan, the most glaring inconsistency nearly everyone is simply ignoring or trying to paper over. As the economy deteriorates - with more evidence today - the risk to the system only gets bigger and louder. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Recession Fear Raises ‘Gray Swan’ Risk for Bond Investorshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/us-recession-worries-raise-gray-swan-risk-for-bond-investorshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The podcast dives into the fallout from the AI bubble bursting, highlighting how this collapse is shaking investor confidence and fueling recession fears. It examines the ripple effects on consumer spending and credit markets, warning of a potential economic downturn. The discussion links these recent developments to historical GDP trends, underscoring the significance of this moment in economic history. With downgrades to growth forecasts being a key topic, the implications of this bubble's end echo throughout the economy.

With recession fears still growing, the government just reported strange results for a key set of economic data. And it's contradicted by a range of other reports, starting with more retailer warnings like the one from Lululemon about store traffic. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Lululemon Plunges With Outlook Hurt by US Consumer Worrieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-27/lululemon-s-us-struggles-weigh-on-sales-outlook-for-coming-yearhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why are senior researchers and former officials urging the Fed to create a hedge fund bailout? At first, this seems to be about the Treasury market and concerns tied to March 2020. It doesn't take too long, however, to see what's really going on here. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBrookings Treasury market dysfunction and the role of the central bankhttps://www.brookings.edu/articles/treasury-market-dysfunction-and-the-role-of-the-central-bank/Bloomberg Fed Urged to Explore Hedge Fund Bailout Tool for Basis Tradehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-27/fed-urged-to-mull-a-hedge-fund-bailout-facility-for-basis-tradesOFR Hedge Funds and the Treasury Cash-Futures Disconnect https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/files/OFRwp-21-01-hedge-funds-and-the-treasury-cash-futures-disconnect.pdfFOMC Meeting Minutes March 15, 2020https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20200315.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Historic bond buying by European banks kept up again in February. The two-month binge is only surpassed by April and May 2020.  At the same time, no lending to speak of, banks being totally defensive despite rate cuts. The implications are enormous given the background for 2025. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisYou can watch the replay of our last webinar going over the various scenarios for the global economy: https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer for its subscriptions and memberships:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerECB The euro area bank lending survey - Fourth quarter of 2024https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/bank_lending_survey/html/ecb.blssurvey2024q4~e1ddae0f19.en.htmlECB Past Macroeconomic Projectionshttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/devel/ecana/html/table.en.htmlECB Using corporate earnings calls to forecast euro area labour demandhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2025/html/ecb.ebbox202502_04~3283f1bc62.en.htmlBloomberg ECB’s Escriva Says Downside Risks Are Outweighing Upside Riskshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-24/ecb-s-escriva-says-downside-risks-are-outweighing-upside-risksBloomberg ECB Rate Cuts Are Neither Finished Nor Automatic, Villeroy Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-25/ecb-rate-cuts-are-neither-finished-nor-automatic-villeroy-saysBloomberg Stournaras Says Everything Points to April ECB Cut: Econostreamhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-21/stournaras-says-everything-points-to-april-ecb-cut-econostreamBloomberg Lagarde Says Uncertainty Means ECB Can’t Commit on Rateshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-20/lagarde-says-rising-uncertainty-means-ecb-can-t-commit-on-rateshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer for its subscriptions and memberships:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerWhy on earth would anyone say we need a serious financial and economic crisis? Simple: it might be the only way to avoid a lot worse. We've had two so far in the last almost twenty years that got us nowhere; worse than nowhere. If nothing else, maybe third time's a charm.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBen Bernanke's pathetic response to some real Congressional questioning in July 2012:https://www.c-span.org/program/house-committee/us-economic-outlook-and-monetary-policy/282124https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerConsumer confidence collapsed in March, at the same time data on services industries showed much the same. This dramatic loss of momentum is coming up seemingly everywhere, to the point it has Wall Street taking the R-word more seriously than at any time since 2020. Not for nothing, that's what some of these datapoints are looking like. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisConference Board Consmer Confidence March 2025https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidencePhilly Fed March 2025 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Surveyhttps://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/nbos-2025-03New York Fed Business Leaders Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/business_leaders/bls_overview.htmlChicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC)https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfsec/current-dataRichmond Fed Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activityhttps://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/surveys/service_sectorCNBC DoubleLine’s Gundlach sees more risk coming along with greater chance of recessionhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/doublelines-gundlach-sees-more-risk-coming-and-greater-chance-of-recession-.html?qsearchterm=gundlachCNBC The probability of a recession is approaching 50%, Deutsche markets survey findshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/the-probability-of-a-recession-is-approaching-50percent-deutsche-markets-survey-finds.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU