Eurodollar University

The ECB recently made headlines with its eighth rate cut, while the global economy appears shaky. Surprisingly, many are fixated on political figures like Trump and Elon, missing crucial economic shifts. The Fed may be closer to joining this trend of rate adjustments than most realize. Concerns are rising over labor market weaknesses, especially in Germany, contrasting sharply with the Fed's more cautious approach. It's a pivotal moment for central banks globally, with the risk landscape growing ever more complex.

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/For a week when the labor market and its data are in the bright, blaring spotlight, it did NOT get off to a good start. Not only ADP, also ISM. Both together showed the economy continued losing momentum and vitality in May - even with tariff delays and a stock market rebound. Both ended p with some of the worst numbers for each in years. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisADP May 2025https://adpemploymentreport.com/Bloomberg US Hiring Cools to Slowest Pace in Two Years, ADP Data Showhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/us-hiring-falls-to-slowest-pace-in-two-years-adp-data-showBloomberg US Services Activity Contracts for First Time in Nearly a Yearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/us-services-activity-contracts-for-first-time-in-nearly-a-yearCNBC Trump says ‘Too Late’ Powell must lower interest rates after weak ADP jobs reporthttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/trump-powell-adp-jobs.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Dive into the unsettling economic signals emerging globally. Discover why Swiss inflation has turned negative and how tariffs impact growth in Australia. The discussion highlights troubling indicators like the sharp drop in factory orders and construction spending in the U.S. It paints a picture of a complex economic landscape where multiple small issues contribute to a larger deflationary trend. As banks adopt a defensive stance, the stakes are high in the world of economic policy and forecasting.

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Several more countries around the world are reporting contractions in GDP even before getting to trade wars and any tariff impacts. The latest cluster around Scandinavia and have European banks overall behaving in very curious ways. So much so, the typically hands-off ECB is writing letters to them and threatening on-site visits to get some answers before the economy really takes its turn. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Sweden’s Surprise Economic Contraction Boosts Rate Cut Oddshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/swedish-economy-unexpectedly-shrinks-weighed-down-by-investmentBloomberg ECB Steps Up Scrutiny of Banks’ Exposure to Private Marketshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/ecb-intensifies-scrutiny-of-banks-exposure-to-private-marketshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Texas Just Sent a Warning Shot to the Rest of the U.S. EconomyConsumer spending in Texas has collapsed, and the data from the Dallas Fed is worse than anyone expected. Retail sales activity fell off a cliff in May, hitting levels not seen since April 2020. Inventories are piling up, work hours are being slashed, and employers are cutting back.Is this just a Texas problem… or is it the first sign of a nationwide consumer retrenchment?In this video, we break down the shocking data, why it matters, and how it could ripple across the entire U.S. economy in the months ahead.If the U.S. consumer breaks, it’s game over.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Everyone's favorite topic, yet there is little factually correct information floating around the internet or social media. You can't understand the dollar's position until you realize it's actually the eurodollar you're really talking about. And that means reserve currency, and hardly anyone knows what that truly means or involves. Until now. Eurodollar University's Make It Make CentsFOMC Minutes December 1963https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomchistmin19631217.pdfFOMC Transcript Feb 1998https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19980204meeting.pdfBIS 1964 34th Annual Reporthttps://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/archive/ar1964_en.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/South Korea had been on the side of the Fed, sticking with interest rates opting to see about trade war "uncertainty" before doing anything. That lasted all of four weeks. The list of central banks able to sit by and watch CPI has thinned down to just the one Mr. Powell runs. And the update to Q1 GDP in the US holds the key as to why.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Bank of Korea Flags More Rate Cuts to Come as Tariffs Hit Growthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-29/bok-cuts-rate-to-cushion-economy-from-tariffs-political-turmoilCNBC Bank of Korea lowers interest rates for the fourth time, flags more cuts aheadhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/29/south-korea-central-bank-cuts-interest-rates-.htmlChosunBiz Bank of Korea lowers interest rate to 2.50%, signals possibility of further cutshttps://biz.chosun.com/en/en-policy/2025/05/29/E5KPW2LQYFGPRF5EM5G3RUM4XQ/Bloomberg Banxico Sees Growth of 0.1% This Year, Rules Out Recessionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-29/bank-lending-to-private-credit-funds-swells-145-in-five-yearshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Germany. France. New Zealand. Singapore. ECB. Rising unemployment. Falling employment. Lowering interest rates. Technical recession. Historically low territory up next. There is almost no one left in the official world in the same thinking as the Fed as the world more clearly and completely tilts against "inflation."Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWSJ Germany’s Jobless Numbers Tick Higherhttps://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/germanys-jobless-numbers-tick-higher-27a99b18Le Monde France's great consumption slumphttps://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2024/10/10/france-s-great-consumption-slump_6728864_19.htmlBloomberg ECB Faces Greater Risk Inflation Will Undershoot 2%, Simkus Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-26/ecb-faces-greater-risk-inflation-will-undershoot-2-simkus-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Reserve Bank of Australia had resisted cutting rates, being the last major central bank to do so. This week, RBA not only cut again officials confirmed discussing a fifty. Plus the Swedes, who were supposed to have been done, are back at it again. Race to the bottom heats up again.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreBloomberg RBA Ready to Respond If Needed to Trade Shock, Hauser Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-22/rba-s-hauser-sees-us-china-trade-dispute-aiding-australian-firmsS&P Global Eurozone PMIs May 2025https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f4672a7ff89744e096c5e9497d2e5362https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The discussion dives into why people expect interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy, revealing a shocking truth about the Fed's long-held narratives. It critiques the idea that lower rates guarantee growth, spotlighting historical failures. The talk further unpacks misconceptions about the Fed's actual control over rates, showing how real market behaviors challenge this belief. The cyclical nature of interest rates during economic booms and busts is explored, highlighting the hidden economic issues that low rates often obscure.