Eurodollar University New Chinese Data Reveals The Unthinkable
Nov 17, 2025
China is experiencing an unprecedented investment crash, with alarming stats on household lending confirming a major shift. The podcast digs into how post-COVID overproduction led to declining prices and why stimulus measures have failed. It explores Beijing's new anti-involution policy that has forced cuts in investment and spending. As retail sales and industrial output slow, the People's Bank of China signals an end to the stimulus era. This situation in China serves as a cautionary tale for the global economy.
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Investment Shift Is A Real Crash
- China's recent drop in fixed asset investment is not a mild slump but a sharp crash concentrated since May-June 2025.
- The accumulated FAI rate plunged from ~4% in May to -1.7% by October, signaling severe downturn momentum.
Private Investment Collapsed Faster
- Private fixed asset investment fell far harder, moving from about zero in May to -4.5% accumulated by October.
- Monthly YoY changes hit roughly -15% in October, revealing severe recent contraction.
The Change Began In Summer 2025
- The downturn started around June-July and wasn't limited to property; retail sales and industrial figures fell in step.
- Multiple indicators converged on the same timing, showing a broad summer shift in China's economy.