Eurodollar University HOLY SH*T!! Did you see what just happened in Europe
Nov 18, 2025
Europe's labor market faces a precarious flat Beveridge moment, with Switzerland's GDP contracting, raising alarms about global economic health. German economists challenge the rosy narratives, predicting a bleak outlook due to structural woes and demographic shifts. Employment growth remains alarmingly weak, masked by misleading marginal GDP improvements. As Swiss unemployment rises and inflation stagnates, market signals hint at potential negative interest rates, contradicting central bank optimism. The ripple effects are felt globally, with similar trends emerging in major economies.
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Positive Numbers Can Mask Decline
- Europe shows barely positive GDP and employment that mask deeper weakness and falling behind trendlines.
- Jeff Snider argues these small positives are not enough to close the employment gap and signal a move toward a flat Beveridge curve.
Judge Growth By Closing The Gap
- Do not confuse small positive GDP prints with genuine recovery; assess whether growth closes underlying gaps.
- Snider recommends judging numbers by their ability to erase the 'forgot how to grow' gap, not by positivity alone.
Employment Below 1% Signals Danger
- European employment growth slowed to just 0.5% year-over-year and is below historical thresholds that preceded recessions.
- Snider links this to a heightened risk of full negative turns in jobs and GDP across synchronized global economies.