Not a good day in India to start the week. The rupee’s currency crisis is accelerating. The central bank is burning through reserves at an unsustainable pace. India stocks were crushed, with the main SENSEX index down over a thousand points. Delhi also significantly dialed back its growth estimates while reports came out it is going to massively restate its November imports. Why is all this happening? It's not because of Jay Powell or Donald Trump. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisHindustan Times Stock market today: Sensex and Nifty tanks, rupee hits all-time lowhttps://www.hindustantimes.com/business/stock-market-crash-sensex-tanks-nearly-700-points-on-open-nifty-down-over-200-101736737599073.htmlBloomberg Deepening India Slowdown Sinks Hope for New Era of 8% Growthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/india-s-deepening-slowdown-dashes-hopes-for-new-era-of-8-growthBloomberg India’s Central Bank Said to Ease Rupee Drought With FX Swapshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/india-s-central-bank-said-to-ease-rupee-drought-with-fx-swapsBusiness Standard 'If they tax us, we tax them': Trump threatens reciprocal tariffs on Indiahttps://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/trump-threatens-reciprocal-tariffs-india-trade-conflict-124121800321_1.htmlBloomberg It May Rain Downgrades This Earnings Season in Indiahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/india-market-buzz-big-money-in-small-companies-looks-tough-nowBloomberg India Fixing Record Trade Gap After Overstating Gold Importshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/india-fixing-record-trade-deficit-after-overstating-gold-importshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Economics expert Steve Van Metre discusses the recent surge in payroll numbers, smashing expectations for two consecutive months. He explores whether this indicates a rebounding economy or if it’s merely a political effect. The conversation dives into declining earnings and low confidence among businesses, particularly in manufacturing. Van Metre also analyzes trends among younger workers and discrepancies in labor data, raising questions about what these changes mean for future economic conditions and the Federal Reserve's response.

The yuan is teetering on the edge of crisis, revealing the deep economic struggles in China. Efforts by the People's Bank of China to stabilize the currency have fallen flat, exposing a deflationary spiral. The transformation of China’s banking system adds another layer of complexity. Recent governmental measures seem inadequate, leading to a grim outlook not only for China but also for the global market. As mainstream awareness grows, the true roots of this crisis are becoming impossible to ignore.

Credit card balances crashed in November, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. That's a major warning but not about spending. With such a negative signal instead relating to jobs and the labor market, why the hell are LT rates...rising? The answer to the question can be found in Canada and Germany. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

And now for some layoffs to go with the ongoing alarming drop in hiring. More strong evidence the labor market in the US is on the edge of the Beveridge cliff. It may not actually be a cliff in the literal sense, yet all the data points to the economy being at that point...if not already past it.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

European banks are taking a defensive stance, focusing on safer government bonds instead of lending, raising concerns about financial stability. The euro's decline is linked to inflation and rising consumer prices, echoing past economic crises. Long-term interest rates are surging, especially in Germany, compounded by political and labor market challenges in France and Switzerland. As banks opt for safety, the broader implications for economic growth and global supply chains become increasingly critical.

Canada's Prime Minister resigned, as expected, just as Canada announces more troubling economic data. The whole saga of PM Trudeau's downfall is actually perfectly illustrated by the loonie; and it applies to a lot more than Canada. It's a warning to both existing governments as well as the successors who take over for them after voters have had enough. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFox Canada’s Trudeau announces resignation following party pressure amid criticisms of Trump, budget handlinghttps://www.foxnews.com/world/canadas-trudeau-announces-resignation-following-party-pressure-amid-criticisms-trump-budget-handlingBloomberg Canada’s Economy Shrank in November for First Time This Yearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-23/canada-s-economy-shrank-in-november-for-first-time-this-yearBloomberg One in Four UK Firms Cut Jobs After Reeves Budget, PMI Showshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-06/one-in-four-uk-firms-cut-jobs-after-reeves-tax-rise-pmi-showsBloomberg Number of UK Retailers in Distress Surge 25% in Fourth Quarterhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-27/number-of-uk-retailers-in-distress-surge-25-in-fourth-quarterUK Independent Tax and pay hikes to see UK firms pay £2,300 more per low-wage worker in 2025https://www.the-independent.com/news/uk/home-news/tax-ni-pay-wages-businesses-b2672875.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Something big happened in late November, impacting markets all around the world. Responsible for the crash in currencies, the collapse in some interest rates, maybe even some modest upset over in the stock market. We have a number of clues to go off, a few suspects to analyze. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Trump vows an additional 10% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexicohttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/26/trump-vows-an-additional-10percent-tariff-on-china-25percent-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico.htmlTruth Social https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215408213585https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU