New Data Suggests Oil Will Hit A Price You Won't Believe

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Aug 14, 2025

Oil prices are seeing a dramatic drop due to a massive supply glut, prompting a shift in OPEC's production strategy. A fascinating link is drawn between falling oil demand and the actual strength of the economy. Meanwhile, there's growing anticipation for significant Federal Reserve rate cuts as economic forecasts turn gloomy. The discussion also highlights the gold market as a potential hedge against instability. Overall, the narrative challenges common perceptions about inflation, suggesting a more disinflationary environment ahead.

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INSIGHT

Oil And Rates Tell One Story

Global oil prices have plunged because demand is weakening even as OPEC restores production.
Jeff Snider argues both oil and rates reflect the same economic weakness signal.

INSIGHT

IEA Sees A Growing Supply Glut

The IEA sees a growing supply glut driven by OPEC adding supply while demand disappoints.
Snider links that glut to weaker global growth and lower future interest rates.

INSIGHT

OPEC Reversed Course As Demand Failed

OPEC initially cut output expecting a recovery but has reversed course as demand failed to materialize.
Snider says restoring barrels exposes oil prices to continued downside amid weak demand.

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Oil tumbled today nearing its multi-year low as a massive supply glut hangs over the marketplace. But it's not supply where the glut is coming from. Meanwhile, rates also tumble as everyone - even the media - is getting ready for a September fifty out of the FOMC. In fact, these and the rest of the evidence are all the same thing, different sides of the same crude coin.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Global Oil Markets Face Record Supply Glut Next Year, IEA Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-13/global-oil-markets-face-record-supply-glut-next-year-iea-says

IEA August 2025
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2025

Bloomberg Bets on Outsize Fed Cut Gain Steam as CPI Data Backs Doves
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-12/bets-on-outsize-fed-cut-gain-steam-as-inflation-data-backs-doves

Bloomberg CPI Report Boosts Market Bets on Larger September Fed Rate Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-13/bets-on-outsize-fed-cut-gain-steam-as-cpi-data-backs-doves

Bloomberg Bessent Urges Fed to Lower Rates by 150 Basis Points or More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-13/bessent-says-rates-should-likely-be-150-175-basis-points-lower

https://www.eurodollar.university
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