Eurodollar University This Is the First Time in 50 YEARS We’ve Seen This Happen…
Dec 4, 2025
The recent labor market is experiencing a significant downturn, with a shocking drop in private payrolls and the six-month average turning negative for the first time. This situation is closely tied to a struggling housing market, where home prices have dropped consistently over recent months. Meanwhile, new homes are now selling at discounts compared to existing ones, a rare occurrence in the last 50 years. The cycle of job losses is leading to weaker housing demand, creating a feedback loop that raises questions about future Federal Reserve policies.
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Labor Weakness Is Real And Sustained
- Multiple months of job losses and a negative six-month ADP average confirm weakening labor conditions rather than one-offs.
- Jeff Snider connects sustained payroll declines directly to rising housing market stress and falling demand.
Fed Shift From Growth To Flat Labor
- The Fed's internal divide shifted from 'solid labor' to admitting the market is no longer growing, undermining hawkish views.
- Jeff Snider highlights Beige Book and Fed remarks as confirming a transition toward layoffs and hiring freezes.
Home Prices At Post-Bust Lows
- Government home-price indices show renewed declines and the annual rate is the weakest since February 2012.
- Snider argues this long-run deterioration ties directly to confirmed labor weakness and falling buyer demand.