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Sep 20, 2025 The latest discussions reveal a stark decline in US housing construction, hitting its lowest point since May 2020. Homebuilders are cutting prices like never before, yet mortgage rates have surprisingly dipped to their lowest in a year. This peculiar trend suggests that lower rates may indicate a demand for safety rather than stimulus. The podcast also highlights a surge in mortgage refinances amid weak purchase activity, pointing to economic signals that suggest trouble ahead.
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Falling Rates Can Signal Weakness
- Mortgage rates falling do not imply housing recovery because lower rates often reflect rising demand for safety and liquidity.
- Jeff Snider argues falling mortgage rates signal economic weakness, not stimulus for homebuying.
Permits Signal Builders' Pessimism
- Builders filed the fewest permits since May 2020 and permits have fallen five months straight.
- Snider sees falling permits as a forward signal that builders expect weak demand and are pessimistic about rates sparking buyers.
Jobs, Not Just Rates, Drive Housing Demand
- Single-family permits plunged despite mortgage rates easing, indicating other macro forces at play.
- Snider attributes this to job and income uncertainty keeping buyers sidelined even as rates fall.