ARC ENERGY IDEAS

Rob West, founder and CEO of Thunder Said Energy, shares his insights from Estonia on the energy transition. He criticizes the use of S-curves to forecast growth in new energy tech, arguing they oversimplify real-world dynamics. The conversation touches on the recent sell-off in clean energy stocks and the challenges they face. West explores AI’s expected doubling of electricity demand and emphasizes the critical role that solar energy plays. He also spotlights natural hydrogen's potential as the next energy gold rush and discusses the bottlenecks posed by power grids.

So long summer!  Peter and Jackie are back in the studio and are discussing the energy news from the past few months. They kick off the podcast by discussing political developments in the United States and Canada. Then, they examine the drop in clean energy stocks over the summer and the weaker market sentiment, including the rapid decline in BC's low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit price. Lastly, they discuss the low prices for natural gas in Alberta, which averaged only $C 0.60/GJ in August. Content referenced on this podcast:  McKinsey and Company “The Energy Transition: Where are we, really” (August 27, 2024) Canary Media “US Clean Energy Investment is Soaring Thanks to Climate Law” (August 16 2024) and Clean Investment Monitor: Q2 Update  BC Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) price history, scroll to the Credit Market Data Section to download. ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050 (August 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify 

This week, we are joined by Nancy Southern, Chair & Chief Executive Officer of ATCO Ltd., and Chair & Chief Executive Officer of Canadian Utilities Limited, an ATCO Company. ATCO is a publicly traded company that offers innovative and sustainable solutions to customers in various sectors, such as housing, real estate, energy, water, transportation, and agriculture. Under Nancy's leadership, ATCO is growing the EnPower division, which focuses on energy transition and includes hydrogen, CCS, water, energy storage, solar, wind, and hydro. Peter and Jackie asked Nancy: How did ATCO start and what are the business lines today? How do you continue your father's legacy and the corporate culture he established? Tell us about your Alberta hydrogen project and the potential for exporting hydrogen to Asia. Update us on ATCO’s recent final investment decision (FID) on the Atlas Carbon Storage Hub in partnership with Shell. What are your views on the federal government's proposed Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) to achieve net zero electricity by 2035? What is your perspective on Alberta's proposed changes to renewable power development, electricity markets, and transmission costs? Content referenced in this podcast: Canadian Government’s Clean Fuel Regulations Credit Market Report (June 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts Amazon Music Spotify 

Avik Dey, CEO of Capital Power, discusses clean electricity, coal phase-out, SMRs in Alberta, Texas vs. Alberta renewables, AI data center demand, canceled CCS project, investing in new natural gas generation, Quebec's renewable project plans. The podcast explores power generation transitions, energy mix challenges, nuclear energy safety, and comparisons between Texas and Alberta in renewable energy adoption.

On June 20, 2024, Bill C-59 received Royal Assent and officially became law, implementing its provisions into Canadian legislation. The Bill, along with Bill C-69, which was passed on the same day, introduced new subsidies to encourage investment in clean energy in Canada. Bill C-59 established the Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Tax Credit. Bill C-69 created the Federal Indigenous Loan Guarantee, the Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit, and the Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit. However, the positive impact of these new subsidies was overshadowed by the greenwashing regulations added late in the process for Bill C-59. The new greenwashing rules amend the Competition Act to require that claims made by companies about environmental, ecological, or climate change benefits can be verified. Because of the ambiguity of what is needed to comply with the rules, many energy companies have deleted all GHG emissions and other sustainability content from their websites, including annual sustainability reports and commitments to improve environmental performance in the future. This week on the podcast, our guest, Kaeleigh Kuzma, a Partner at Osler in the Competition, Trade, and Foreign Investment Group, explained the new greenwashing rules. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Kaeleigh: Why is greenwashing included in the Competition Act? Can you explain the provisions? What does “proper substantiation in accordance with internationally recognized methodology” mean? Why are the rules so vague, and what is the process for clarity? Do these rules only affect oil and gas and other heavy-emitting companies, or do they also apply to clean energy companies? What is the process for filing a complaint against a company to the Competition Bureau? What are the methods of enforcement? Other content referenced in this podcast:   Osler’s detailed multi-part guide on the Competition Act amendments, with a specific section on deceptive marketing practices and greenwashing, here. Text of Bill C-59, see 74.01 (1), including (b.1) and (b.2) Form to provide feedback to the Competition Bureau on the amendments to the Act Kevin  Krausert opinion “Ottawa’s anti-greenwashing bill will cripple cleantech innovation” (June 20, 2024)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify 

Former Governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz, discusses increasing domestic investment by Canadian pension funds, inflation, interest rates, productivity, free trade with the US, EV sector support, deficit budgets, and growing debt levels in Canada.

This week, our guest is David Hobbs, Executive Chairman of Pantheon Resources PLC and Chairman of Proton Green LLC. David has an extensive background in energy research, having served as Head of Research at King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research (KAPSARC) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and as Chief Energy Strategist at IHS CERA (now part of S&P Global Commodities Insights).  The podcast is a new game-style format this week, where Jackie and David engaged in a lively debate on some of the big issues in energy, with Peter as the moderator. Some topics they discussed include: How would a second Trump presidency affect NATO's future? How do the US presidential candidates differ in terms of energy policy? When is the end of oil? How would a Pierre Poilievre-led Conservative Party of Canada alter energy policy in Canada? How are the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts impacting the oil market? How will AI impact the future of energy? What will be the next acronym after ESG? Should any change be expected as the UN Climate meetings mark the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement? Content referenced in this podcast:Remarkable digital notepad Roger Pielke Jr. from the University of Colorado  Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify

According to the IEA, heat accounts for almost half of final global energy consumption, with approximately two-thirds currently sourced from hydrocarbons. Net zero energy scenarios anticipate that heating can be predominantly electrified.  In pursuit of lower-carbon buildings, high-efficiency air-source heat pumps offer a promising decarbonization and energy reduction solution. Further, the Canadian federal government and some provinces support the transition to air-source heat pumps by subsidizing their purchases.In this episode, Jackie and Peter review the ARC Energy Research Institute’s analysis of heat pumps for northern climates like Canada. Danielle Vitoff, Director of Energy Transition, Sustainability, and Infrastructure at Guidehouse, a global consulting firm, joins the discussion. Key questions covered in this podcast include: How do air-source heat pumps operate, and what makes them so efficient? Why does the efficiency of a heat pump decline in colder temperatures? How do heat pumps' upfront capital and operating costs compare to alternatives like natural gas or fuel oil furnaces? How could broad-scale switching to electric heat pumps affect the electricity grid? Considering the cold climate, are air-source heat pumps a good fit for Canada? Content referenced in this podcast: CAPP Data Centre US residential heat pumps: the private economic potential and its emissions, health, and grid impacts (Source: US Department of Energy) Pathways for British Columbia to Achieve its GHG Reduction Goals (Source: Guidehouse, prepared for Fortis BC) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts Amazon Music Spotify  

This week, our guest is Jennifer Williams, President and CEO of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro. Hydro manages Newfoundland and Labrador’s electricity system, generating and transmitting most of the province's electricity, and exporting electricity to other parts of Canada and the United States. Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro operates several hydroelectric plants, including the Churchill Falls Generation Station in Labrador, which has a capacity of nearly 5,500 MW and is among the top ten hydro dams in the world outside of China. The utility has also recently commissioned Muskrat Falls, with a capacity of 824 MW. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Jennifer: What percentage of the electricity generated in the province is exported? Is Muskrat Falls operating at full capacity now, including the undersea transmission lines? What were some of the reasons for the high cost of Muskrat Falls?  Can you discuss Churchill Falls, the technical achievement of building the project, and the contract that set a low power price for 70 years? How much potential is there to develop additional generation in the province?  Do you anticipate green hydrogen projects operating in the region? From your perspective, why was the Atlantic Loop transmission project scaled back? Are you concerned about the draft Clean Electricity Regulations legislation, which proposes net- zero electricity by 2035?  Content referenced in this podcast:  The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) commissioned a report on the economic impact of the federal government’s proposed oil gas emissions cap on the conventional oil and gas industry  Muskrat Falls Inquiry Website Supreme Court of Canada Judgment:  Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corp. v. Hydro‑Québec  Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify  

Despite frequent pronouncements that the world should stop using coal, it still consumes vast amounts of black rocks. According to the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy, coal's global primary energy consumption was about 15% above natural gas in 2022 and only 15% lower than crude oil.  Coal consumption has yet to decline. Instead, coal use has plateaued for the better part of the last decade.  Because of its carbon intensity and large consumption, Peter and Jackie describe coal as the “herd of elephants” in the room for meeting aggressive decarbonization and climate goals under the 2015 Paris Agreement. This week, our guest is Lara Dong, Senior Director, Global Coal Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights. Lara explains why coal demand has been resilient and what to expect in the future.  Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Lara: Is coal consumption expected to stay strong? Why is China still building new coal power plants?  How does this compare to clean electricity additions in China, including wind, solar, and hydro? Is there still ongoing new investment in coal mines to add supply?  Why was 2021 a pivotal year for Chinese energy policy?  How did the 2022 energy crisis impact China’s and India’s energy policy for coal? Do you think the IEA Net Zero scenario, which assumes a 90% drop in coal consumption by 2050, is likely?  If Canada were to increase its LNG exports to Asia, would this decrease coal consumption (and greenhouse gas emissions) in the region? Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify