ARC ENERGY IDEAS

This week, our guest is Dawn Farrell, President and CEO of Trans Mountain Corporation. On May 1, 2024, the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) started commercial operations. Over a decade in the making, this milestone is a huge accomplishment. Originally built in 1953, the expansion project triples the pipeline's capacity from 300,000 to 890,000 B/d.   This significant expansion of Canada's only oil pipeline to the West Coast comes at an important time since Canadian production was expected to hit the limits of the existing pipeline system later this year. The expansion will allow Canadian crude oil to access new markets in California and Asia, and it is expected to lift oil prices by increasing the number of buyers for Canadian oil. The TMEP is not without controversy, given its high cost (currently estimated at $C 34 billion compared with $C 7.4 billion in 2017), opposition to the pipeline in some areas of British Columbia, and the Federal government's purchase of the project in 2018.Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Dawn: Tell us about the pipeline operations currently, has Alberta crude oil reached the dock in Burnaby, British Columbia? What are the logistics, operations, and safety precautions for moving the Aframax tankers from the Burnaby Terminal to the open ocean? What is the importance of this pipeline to Canada? What are some of the factors that contributed to the high costs? What is the process and timing for the current regulatory hearing that could change the tolls? Content referenced in this podcast: Trevor Tombe: The Trans Mountain pipeline was worth every penny of its $34 billion price tag (April 30, 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify 

This week our guest is Doug Hooper, Director of Policy and Regulations at Advanced Biofuels Canada. Advanced Biofuels Canada is an industry association that promotes the production and use of biofuels and renewable synthetic fuels. One of the topics covered in the podcast is Canada’s Clean Fuels Regulation (CFR). The policy is nearing its first anniversary after coming into effect on July 1, 2023 (Canada Day). The rule requires Canadian refiners and fuel importers to reduce the carbon intensity of the gasoline and diesel sold by about 2% annually between 2023 and 2030.  By 2030, under the rule, Canada's average gasoline and diesel fuel will be 15% less carbon intensive.  Biofuels will be a major compliance source for the new rule; emissions reductions are also expected in upstream oil and gas (for domestically consumed oil) and alternative transportation fuels, such as hydrogen and electricity.The conversation considered Canadian competitiveness with the United States for liquid biofuel production. Doug explained how the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 put a chill on investing in biofuel production facilities in Canada. The recent Canadian Federal Budget 2024 introduced some new measures to help close the gap, but will this be enough? Research referenced in this podcast:  The annual report from Navius Research called “Biofuels in Canada 2023”  Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/   Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts Amazon Music Spotify  

Jackie and Peter provide an update on ESG this week on the podcast.  Has the anti-ESG movement started to change companies' reporting and actions?   To answer this question, they reviewed some articles and research that point to the recent loss of momentum and profile for the ESG movement.  There have also been examples of companies exiting sustainability-focused organizations. While sustainability may have peaked in these regards, it is not going away. Companies continue to report on their sustainability performance and set goals for improvement. Mitigating and monitoring the risk associated with ESG-related issues is also important. Content Referenced in this Podcast: Nat Bullard's website and 200-page annual slide deck Catalyst w/ Shayle Kann podcast with Nat Bullard: 2024 trends, part 2: ESG, carbon certifications, curtailment, and AI (February 2024) The Wall Street Journal: Diversity goals are disappearing from companies’ annual reports (April 2024) GreenBiz: Microsoft, P&G, Unilever, and Walmart among 239 companies to miss net-zero deadline (March 2024) Globe and Mail: Emissions standards group roiled by controversy after opening door to offsets (April 2024) Financial Times: Two pension funds quit Mark Carney’s green alliance (September 2022) Bank of America reneged on a commitment to stop financing new coal mines and coal power plants (February 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/   Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify  

The 2024 Canadian Federal Budget was released on April 16th. This year’s budget is focused on affordability, housing, and spending on social programs such as pharmaceutical care, daycare, and dentist care.  Peter and Jackie discuss the budget, including the size of the deficit and the planned increase in capital gains taxes. They also cover energy-related updates from the budget, such as changes to investment tax credit programs (ITCs), adjustments to the green home subsidy, and the announcement of an Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program. They also mention that the Canada Growth Fund, which has pledged $7 billion to carbon markets, now aims to provide more off-the-shelf support for decarbonization projects while continuing to support bespoke opportunities. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) also plans to collaborate with provinces to improve carbon markets. The budget includes commitments to develop guidelines for investing in green and decarbonization projects (called a taxonomy); it also encourages Canadian pension funds to invest more in Canada, with a working group set up to explore this further.  Content referenced in this episode: Canada Budget 2024   RBC Report on if Canada's AAA credit rating is at riskTrevor Tombe: Why Raising Capital Gains Taxes Make Sense - Yes, Really (April 17, 2024, The Hub) Senior Business Leaders Support Proposal Asking Pension Funds to Invest More in Canada (March 6, 2024, Globe and Mail) Canada Energy Transition Taxonomy Roadmap (September 2022) by the Sustainable Finance Action Council (SFAC). Note that SFAC has submitted this roadmap, and it is not the official position of the Government of Canada.   Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/   Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts Amazon Music Spotify  

The threat of a wider Middle East war is increasing. Over the past weekend, Iran attacked Israel with missiles and drones in retaliation for Israel’s suspected strike on Iran's embassy in Syria. This week, our guest, Raoul LeBlanc, Vice President, Energy, S&P Global Commodity Insights, explains why oil prices have increased over the past few months, including the impact of the growing conflict in the Middle East, OPEC+, and US shale oil growth. Jackie and Peter also asked Raoul about recent research by Prof. Robert Howarth from Cornell University. The paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, concludes that US LNG could be comparable to, or even worse than, coal from a GHG emissions perspective when methane leaking is considered. A BNN article reported that Howarth’s paper influenced President Biden’s pause on LNG approvals.  Finally, Raoul explains the drivers for US oil and gas producers' recent mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and if this trend could come to Canada. Content referenced in this podcast:  How One Scientist Influenced Biden’s Pause on LNG Approvals (BNN Bloomberg, Feb 29, 2024) The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Exported from the United States by Robert W. Howarth, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University (version is not final and it is currently in a peer review process; original version submitted October 2023, revised version submitted March 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/   Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify   

This week on the podcast, our guest is Rebecca Lindland, Senior Director of Industry Data and Insights at Cars Commerce. Cars Commerce has a platform to simplify the next generation of automotive retail, including Cars.com, AccuTrade, Dealer Inspire, and coming soon, Cars Commerce Media Network. Rebecca is a highly respected expert in the automotive industry. She shares her views on the rise of plug-in hybrids, the recent headwinds for pure electric cars, and new auto technology. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rebecca: How is the auto industry doing now, and is it generally profitable?  Explain the difference between pure-electric, plug-in hybrid, and traditional hybrids. Why are sales of hybrid vehicles increasing in the US?  Do the new US EPA auto rules for increasing electric technology include hybrids? Is the higher price of plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles a barrier to sales? Why are Tesla’s sales slowing? Explain BYD's success in 2023 and if they could come to North America.  Do you think solid-state batteries, if they become available, will increase EV adoption rates? Are self-driving electric cars just delayed, or are they no longer likely?  Other content referenced in this podcast: NYT article from January 2024:  “Hybrid Cars Enjoy a Renaissance and All Electric Sales Slow”  Artist of Rebecca’s office car art: Lyn Hiner StudioPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts Amazon Music Spotify     

This week our podcast guest is Rachel Walsh, Environmental Commodities Strategist at BMO Capital Markets.  Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rachel: Is the hefty Canadian emitter carbon tax starting to impact competitiveness? Is the carbon levy causing industrial emitters to invest in reducing their emissions? Canada and Alberta have introduced incentives to reduce the capital cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. Are these incentives enough to kick-start the industry? Are the contracts-for-difference that guarantee a carbon price for industrial emitters over a decade or more required for investment in large decarbonization projects? The Canada Growth Fund has set aside about $7 billion for contracts-for-difference; how much carbon do you think that will mitigate? The voluntary markets have struggled with credibility issues; do you expect this will improve and prices will increase? Could strong voluntary markets reduce the risk of investing in Canadian compliance markets since they offer an alternative way to monetize the carbon credits?Content referenced on this podcast:Clean Prosperity CanadaICE has introduced two futures markets for Alberta Carbon Credits: Alberta Emission Offset and Alberta Emission Performance Credits Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Recently, Alberta announced significant changes to its power market: short-term changes to stop economic withholding and a long-term redesign of Alberta’s deregulated electricity market into a restructured energy market (REM).  This week, our guest, Blake Shaffer, Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary, helps us understand these changes.Here are some questions Jackie and Peter asked Blake: Why does Alberta need a market redesign? Was the near-brownout during a frigid weekend in January a sign that the current system is not working? What is “economic withholding” and how does it contribute to higher prices? The REM is expected to have a “day-ahead market,” how does that work? The REM could also have a wide pricing range, from negative prices to ones that exceed the current maximum of $999/MWh. What is the benefit of a wide price range? Do the proposed changes hurt renewable power projects? The REM is also considering changes to transmission; how significant could these changes be?  Will the REM changes negatively impact entities that contracted power under the existing rules?  What are your views on the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) legislation, that aims to make Canada’s electricity sector net zero by 2035? Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsGoogle PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Peter is back from a one-week whirlwind trip to the UK where he was a guest on a government-hosted tour titled “Energy Commentators Mission.” During his visit, he met people working on the UK energy transition, including with offshore wind, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and refining. Tune in to this week’s podcast to hear about Peter’s trip and takeaways, including interviews with some of the people he met in his travels.  We hear from: Andrew Rodden, Energy Transition Zone Ltd.  Pilar Amieva, X-Academy Allan MacAskill, Flotation Energy plc Jeff Richardson, Fugro Kieran Morton, Port of Aberdeen Thomas Nicoll, SSEN Transmission Emily Taylor, Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) Jonathan Turner, British Consul General, Calgary, Canada Tiffany Langford, Senior Climate Policy Advisor, British High Commission based in Calgary Marla Orenstein, Canada West Foundation Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Amazon Music Spotify  

Exploring Canada's lack of capital spending on clean energy transition, challenges in defining 'green' finance, and the impact of upcoming elections on clean energy investments. John Stackhouse from RBC discusses sustainable finance and decarbonization projects, highlighting the barriers to private spending on Canadian clean energy projects.