ARC ENERGY IDEAS

Sander Duncanson, a Partner at Osler and an expert in Canadian business law and carbon policy, dives into Canada's proposed oil and gas emissions cap. He discusses the potential for market distortions and unintended consequences of the regulation. The duo addresses concerns about Canada's more stringent policies compared to the U.S., which may lead to investment flight. Lastly, the complexities of the regulatory framework and its impact on investment and competitiveness within the sector are also explored.

On November 5th, Donald Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States. The Republicans gained a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. There were also recent provincial elections in Canada, including British Columbia, where the incumbent NDP party nearly lost power to the Conservatives. Federally, in Canada, there is potential for a spring election.This week, Shachi Kurl, President of the Angus Reid Institute, joins the podcast to talk about the recent elections and polling.Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Shachi: What does the election of Donald Trump tell you about the state of democracies? How important of an issue is immigration? To what extent do Canadians support Trump's policies and approach? What is the likelihood of US import tariffs of 10-20% being applied to Canada? What are the likely energy policies from the Trump administration? What are the priorities in British Columbia post-election, and do you expect any change with respect to natural resource development and LNG? How could the election of President Trump impact the next Canadian election?  Do you expect any leadership changes for the Liberals?  How does climate change rate as a priority for Canadian voters?Content referenced in this podcast: Angus Reid InstituteShachi Kurl, Ottawa Citizen Article, “Don’t expect a unified ‘Team Canada’ approach to Donald Trump this time” (Nov 8, 2024) Awaiting the next President: Canadians prefer Trudeau to deal with Harris, Poilievre to work with Trump (Nov 4, 2024)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie discuss what they are watching for from the upcoming 29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, better known as COP29. The conference will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11th to 22nd, 2024. Next, they delve into the IEA’s recently released World Energy Outlook 2024. This annual report is widely read and used for discussions on the future of energy. They review some key points that caught their attention, including an outlook for abundant energy supply in the latter part of the 2020s, peak fossil fuels by 2030, electricity’s growing role, and the adoption of EVs.They also consider a few new EV labels: extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) and range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs).They also introduce Peter’s recent article on the proposed cap on Canada’s oil and gas emissions.Content referenced in this podcast:UN Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air…please! (October 2024)UN “It’s Climate Crunch Time” video about three future scenarios, including game over (October 2024)IEA World Energy Outlook 2024Peter Tertzakian’ s commentary “It’s time for a carbon policy time-out (November 2024)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week, our guest is Chris Levesque, President and CEO of TerraPower. Founded by Bill Gates, TerraPower is advancing fourth-generation nuclear reactor technology in the United States, using a Natrium reactor and molten salt. The company recently made the 2024 Fortune "Change the World" list.Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Chris Levesque: What is a fourth-generation nuclear reactor, and how does it differ from the operating reactors in North America regarding safety, cost, and waste? Is the United States ahead of other countries in developing these fourth-generation nuclear reactors? What are the strategic benefits for the United States in developing this technology? How is this technology compatible with wind and solar electricity generation? What is the timeline for the regulatory and permitting process for the first facility? When do you expect to start up your first power plant in Wyoming? Does the uranium need to be enriched, and how will the waste be stored? Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

On June 25th, 2024, Cedar LNG announced a positive final investment decision (FID) for a floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facility with a nameplate capacity of 3.3 million tonnes per annum (~0.4 Bcf/d) located in the traditional territory of the Haisla Nation, near Kitimat, British Columbia, on Canada’s west coast. Commercial operation is expected by 2028, and the project will use the existing Coastal GasLink pipeline (also serving LNG Canada) to deliver natural gas from the production fields in British Columbia and Alberta. The project has an estimated cost of US$4 billion and will be majority-owned by the Haisla Nation. Their partner is Pembina Pipeline Corporation.This week, our guests are Crystal Smith, Chief Councillor of the Haisla Nation, and Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer of Pembina Pipeline Corporation. They explain the project, the community support, the financing, the environmental review process, and, importantly, what this project means for the Haisla Nation’s economic future.Other content referenced in this podcast:Cedar LNG Announces Positive Final Investment Decision (June 25, 2024), scroll down to play the videoSee all videos about the project, including hearing from members of the Haisla Nation: Media Kit - Cedar LNGNational Bank paper making a case for a global GHG reduction from growing Canadian LNG Exports: “Canada Has a Vital Role in Deleveraging the Global Environmental Balance Sheet,” February 2024Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie reflect on the six years since the podcast started. With over 250 episodes and counting, they have commented on a range of topics and events shaping the energy industry in Canada and beyond.In this episode, Peter and Jackie reflect on the podcasts and events that have stayed with them over the past six years and the topics that keep arising, including divestment and energy security. They also discuss their philosophy of interviewing guests.Special thanks to the loyal ARC Energy Ideas podcast listeners and to Beau Shiminsky at Ear Candy, our sound engineer since day one.Content referenced in this podcast:Energyphile stories on Apple (Audio only)Energyphile stories on the website (written and audio) Ear Candy StudioPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week, our guest is Andrew Miller, the Chief Operating Officer of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, which was established in 2014. The firm provides market prices, supply chain data, forecasting, and strategic advisory for energy transition technologies, including focused coverage on battery supply chains. Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Andrew: How did the market for battery minerals flip so quickly from being undersupplied to oversupplied? How much lithium-ion battery demand comes from grid-scale storage versus EVs? Are you optimistic that the policies and subsidies introduced by the US and Canada will eventually create an EV supply chain comparable to China? Were you surprised by how fast battery chemistries changed when mineral prices were high? Are lithium-ion batteries below the $100/kWh level yet? With improved mineral availability, are automakers continuing to pursue vertical integration? Is it possible that deep-sea battery minerals could add more supply than expected?Other content referenced on the podcast:Benchmark Mineral Intelligence website: https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week, Peter and Jackie discuss recent news headlines. Here is what they explored:Canadian Federal Politics. Last week was not the time for an election as the NDP and the Bloc Québécois did not support the Conservative Party of Canada’s motion for a carbon tax election. But when will the election be held, and what does a faster election mean for advancing new energy legislation and regulations? Climate Week NYC is an annual event that focuses on addressing climate change. Peter and Jackie discuss the news that caught their attention while watching headlines from the week, including a nuclear energy renaissance. There is also a growing recognition that greenhouse gas emission reduction goals are not being achieved and that oil demand continues to grow.Canadian Electricity Markets. Ottawa opened a consultation to consider adding a surtax on Chinese modules, semiconductors, batteries, and battery parts imported into Canada, similar to the 100% surtax on EVs introduced in the summer.Electricity demand in Canada is growing. As a result, several provinces, including Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec, have recently made calls to build new electricity generation plants. Alberta, however, is in the middle of an electricity market redesign that is, for now, making new investment in the province uncertain.Oil Markets. While WTI oil price stayed in the $US75-85/B range for most of 2024, it fell to $US65/B on September 10th and recovered to $US68/B at the podcast recording time. Jackie and Peter discuss factors contributing to the weakness in oil prices.Other content referenced in this podcast:World Nuclear News: Constellation to restart Three Mile Island unit, powering Microsoft (September 2024)DCD: Oracle to build nuclear SMR-powered gigawatt data center (September 2024)Canada consults on measures to protect Canadian workers in critical manufacturing sectors from unfair Chinese trade practices (September 2024)Alberta AESO stakeholder feedback on potential strategic reserves Financial Times:  Saudi Arabia ready to abandon $100 crude target to take back market share (September 2024)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

The discussion highlights the stagnation of electric vehicle sales in North America compared to the surge in China. Experts evaluate the critical issues like inadequate charging infrastructure, high depreciation rates, and the cost of fast charging. The conversation also touches on consumer preferences, favoring larger vehicles over smaller models. Insights from an industry veteran shed light on what’s needed to boost EV adoption and make them more competitive in the market.

This week, our guest is the Honourable Christy Clark, the 35th Premier of British Columbia and Canada’s longest-serving female Premier. Christy Clark is currently a Senior Advisor for Bennett Jones LLP.Politics is top of mind for energy decision-makers with the upcoming US election, Canadian federal by-elections, the possibility of an early federal election in Canada, and a provincial election next month in Christy Clark’s home province of British Columbia.Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Christy Clark:Are you surprised that the NDP has been slipping in the polls in BC? Explain the BC United Party (former BC Liberal Party) recently folding into the Conservative Party of BC. Is there potential for the provincial Conservative Party to win in BC next month? Is climate change still an important issue for BC voters? You worked to get BC’s LNG industry started, with over 15 potential projects expected at one point; what is your view on the industry now? Is more electrical generation capacity needed to meet future demand, besides the Site C hydro dam? Now that it has started, how do people feel about the Trans Mountain expansion oil pipeline? With the federal NDP ripping up their agreement to cooperate with the Liberals, do you expect the federal election will occur sooner than October 2025? What are the chances that Justin Trudeau will withdraw from the federal Liberal leadership before the election? Do you have any federal political aspirations?Content referenced in this podcast:Current polling of BC provincial election at 388canada.com Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify