Former Governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz, discusses increasing domestic investment by Canadian pension funds, inflation, interest rates, productivity, free trade with the US, EV sector support, deficit budgets, and growing debt levels in Canada.

This week, our guest is David Hobbs, Executive Chairman of Pantheon Resources PLC and Chairman of Proton Green LLC. David has an extensive background in energy research, having served as Head of Research at King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research (KAPSARC) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and as Chief Energy Strategist at IHS CERA (now part of S&P Global Commodities Insights).  The podcast is a new game-style format this week, where Jackie and David engaged in a lively debate on some of the big issues in energy, with Peter as the moderator. Some topics they discussed include: How would a second Trump presidency affect NATO's future? How do the US presidential candidates differ in terms of energy policy? When is the end of oil? How would a Pierre Poilievre-led Conservative Party of Canada alter energy policy in Canada? How are the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts impacting the oil market? How will AI impact the future of energy? What will be the next acronym after ESG? Should any change be expected as the UN Climate meetings mark the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement? Content referenced in this podcast:Remarkable digital notepad Roger Pielke Jr. from the University of Colorado  Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify

According to the IEA, heat accounts for almost half of final global energy consumption, with approximately two-thirds currently sourced from hydrocarbons. Net zero energy scenarios anticipate that heating can be predominantly electrified.  In pursuit of lower-carbon buildings, high-efficiency air-source heat pumps offer a promising decarbonization and energy reduction solution. Further, the Canadian federal government and some provinces support the transition to air-source heat pumps by subsidizing their purchases.In this episode, Jackie and Peter review the ARC Energy Research Institute’s analysis of heat pumps for northern climates like Canada. Danielle Vitoff, Director of Energy Transition, Sustainability, and Infrastructure at Guidehouse, a global consulting firm, joins the discussion. Key questions covered in this podcast include: How do air-source heat pumps operate, and what makes them so efficient? Why does the efficiency of a heat pump decline in colder temperatures? How do heat pumps' upfront capital and operating costs compare to alternatives like natural gas or fuel oil furnaces? How could broad-scale switching to electric heat pumps affect the electricity grid? Considering the cold climate, are air-source heat pumps a good fit for Canada? Content referenced in this podcast: CAPP Data Centre US residential heat pumps: the private economic potential and its emissions, health, and grid impacts (Source: US Department of Energy) Pathways for British Columbia to Achieve its GHG Reduction Goals (Source: Guidehouse, prepared for Fortis BC) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts Amazon Music Spotify  

This week, our guest is Jennifer Williams, President and CEO of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro. Hydro manages Newfoundland and Labrador’s electricity system, generating and transmitting most of the province's electricity, and exporting electricity to other parts of Canada and the United States. Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro operates several hydroelectric plants, including the Churchill Falls Generation Station in Labrador, which has a capacity of nearly 5,500 MW and is among the top ten hydro dams in the world outside of China. The utility has also recently commissioned Muskrat Falls, with a capacity of 824 MW. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Jennifer: What percentage of the electricity generated in the province is exported? Is Muskrat Falls operating at full capacity now, including the undersea transmission lines? What were some of the reasons for the high cost of Muskrat Falls?  Can you discuss Churchill Falls, the technical achievement of building the project, and the contract that set a low power price for 70 years? How much potential is there to develop additional generation in the province?  Do you anticipate green hydrogen projects operating in the region? From your perspective, why was the Atlantic Loop transmission project scaled back? Are you concerned about the draft Clean Electricity Regulations legislation, which proposes net- zero electricity by 2035?  Content referenced in this podcast:  The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) commissioned a report on the economic impact of the federal government’s proposed oil gas emissions cap on the conventional oil and gas industry  Muskrat Falls Inquiry Website Supreme Court of Canada Judgment:  Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corp. v. Hydro‑Québec  Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify  

Despite frequent pronouncements that the world should stop using coal, it still consumes vast amounts of black rocks. According to the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy, coal's global primary energy consumption was about 15% above natural gas in 2022 and only 15% lower than crude oil.  Coal consumption has yet to decline. Instead, coal use has plateaued for the better part of the last decade.  Because of its carbon intensity and large consumption, Peter and Jackie describe coal as the “herd of elephants” in the room for meeting aggressive decarbonization and climate goals under the 2015 Paris Agreement. This week, our guest is Lara Dong, Senior Director, Global Coal Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights. Lara explains why coal demand has been resilient and what to expect in the future.  Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Lara: Is coal consumption expected to stay strong? Why is China still building new coal power plants?  How does this compare to clean electricity additions in China, including wind, solar, and hydro? Is there still ongoing new investment in coal mines to add supply?  Why was 2021 a pivotal year for Chinese energy policy?  How did the 2022 energy crisis impact China’s and India’s energy policy for coal? Do you think the IEA Net Zero scenario, which assumes a 90% drop in coal consumption by 2050, is likely?  If Canada were to increase its LNG exports to Asia, would this decrease coal consumption (and greenhouse gas emissions) in the region? Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify

This week, our guest is Dawn Farrell, President and CEO of Trans Mountain Corporation. On May 1, 2024, the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) started commercial operations. Over a decade in the making, this milestone is a huge accomplishment. Originally built in 1953, the expansion project triples the pipeline's capacity from 300,000 to 890,000 B/d.   This significant expansion of Canada's only oil pipeline to the West Coast comes at an important time since Canadian production was expected to hit the limits of the existing pipeline system later this year. The expansion will allow Canadian crude oil to access new markets in California and Asia, and it is expected to lift oil prices by increasing the number of buyers for Canadian oil. The TMEP is not without controversy, given its high cost (currently estimated at $C 34 billion compared with $C 7.4 billion in 2017), opposition to the pipeline in some areas of British Columbia, and the Federal government's purchase of the project in 2018.Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Dawn: Tell us about the pipeline operations currently, has Alberta crude oil reached the dock in Burnaby, British Columbia? What are the logistics, operations, and safety precautions for moving the Aframax tankers from the Burnaby Terminal to the open ocean? What is the importance of this pipeline to Canada? What are some of the factors that contributed to the high costs? What is the process and timing for the current regulatory hearing that could change the tolls? Content referenced in this podcast: Trevor Tombe: The Trans Mountain pipeline was worth every penny of its $34 billion price tag (April 30, 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify 

This week our guest is Doug Hooper, Director of Policy and Regulations at Advanced Biofuels Canada. Advanced Biofuels Canada is an industry association that promotes the production and use of biofuels and renewable synthetic fuels. One of the topics covered in the podcast is Canada’s Clean Fuels Regulation (CFR). The policy is nearing its first anniversary after coming into effect on July 1, 2023 (Canada Day). The rule requires Canadian refiners and fuel importers to reduce the carbon intensity of the gasoline and diesel sold by about 2% annually between 2023 and 2030.  By 2030, under the rule, Canada's average gasoline and diesel fuel will be 15% less carbon intensive.  Biofuels will be a major compliance source for the new rule; emissions reductions are also expected in upstream oil and gas (for domestically consumed oil) and alternative transportation fuels, such as hydrogen and electricity.The conversation considered Canadian competitiveness with the United States for liquid biofuel production. Doug explained how the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 put a chill on investing in biofuel production facilities in Canada. The recent Canadian Federal Budget 2024 introduced some new measures to help close the gap, but will this be enough? Research referenced in this podcast:  The annual report from Navius Research called “Biofuels in Canada 2023”  Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/   Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts Amazon Music Spotify  

Jackie and Peter provide an update on ESG this week on the podcast.  Has the anti-ESG movement started to change companies' reporting and actions?   To answer this question, they reviewed some articles and research that point to the recent loss of momentum and profile for the ESG movement.  There have also been examples of companies exiting sustainability-focused organizations. While sustainability may have peaked in these regards, it is not going away. Companies continue to report on their sustainability performance and set goals for improvement. Mitigating and monitoring the risk associated with ESG-related issues is also important. Content Referenced in this Podcast: Nat Bullard's website and 200-page annual slide deck Catalyst w/ Shayle Kann podcast with Nat Bullard: 2024 trends, part 2: ESG, carbon certifications, curtailment, and AI (February 2024) The Wall Street Journal: Diversity goals are disappearing from companies’ annual reports (April 2024) GreenBiz: Microsoft, P&G, Unilever, and Walmart among 239 companies to miss net-zero deadline (March 2024) Globe and Mail: Emissions standards group roiled by controversy after opening door to offsets (April 2024) Financial Times: Two pension funds quit Mark Carney’s green alliance (September 2022) Bank of America reneged on a commitment to stop financing new coal mines and coal power plants (February 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/   Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify  

The 2024 Canadian Federal Budget was released on April 16th. This year’s budget is focused on affordability, housing, and spending on social programs such as pharmaceutical care, daycare, and dentist care.  Peter and Jackie discuss the budget, including the size of the deficit and the planned increase in capital gains taxes. They also cover energy-related updates from the budget, such as changes to investment tax credit programs (ITCs), adjustments to the green home subsidy, and the announcement of an Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program. They also mention that the Canada Growth Fund, which has pledged $7 billion to carbon markets, now aims to provide more off-the-shelf support for decarbonization projects while continuing to support bespoke opportunities. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) also plans to collaborate with provinces to improve carbon markets. The budget includes commitments to develop guidelines for investing in green and decarbonization projects (called a taxonomy); it also encourages Canadian pension funds to invest more in Canada, with a working group set up to explore this further.  Content referenced in this episode: Canada Budget 2024   RBC Report on if Canada's AAA credit rating is at riskTrevor Tombe: Why Raising Capital Gains Taxes Make Sense - Yes, Really (April 17, 2024, The Hub) Senior Business Leaders Support Proposal Asking Pension Funds to Invest More in Canada (March 6, 2024, Globe and Mail) Canada Energy Transition Taxonomy Roadmap (September 2022) by the Sustainable Finance Action Council (SFAC). Note that SFAC has submitted this roadmap, and it is not the official position of the Government of Canada.   Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/   Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts Amazon Music Spotify  

The threat of a wider Middle East war is increasing. Over the past weekend, Iran attacked Israel with missiles and drones in retaliation for Israel’s suspected strike on Iran's embassy in Syria. This week, our guest, Raoul LeBlanc, Vice President, Energy, S&P Global Commodity Insights, explains why oil prices have increased over the past few months, including the impact of the growing conflict in the Middle East, OPEC+, and US shale oil growth. Jackie and Peter also asked Raoul about recent research by Prof. Robert Howarth from Cornell University. The paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, concludes that US LNG could be comparable to, or even worse than, coal from a GHG emissions perspective when methane leaking is considered. A BNN article reported that Howarth’s paper influenced President Biden’s pause on LNG approvals.  Finally, Raoul explains the drivers for US oil and gas producers' recent mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and if this trend could come to Canada. Content referenced in this podcast:  How One Scientist Influenced Biden’s Pause on LNG Approvals (BNN Bloomberg, Feb 29, 2024) The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Exported from the United States by Robert W. Howarth, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University (version is not final and it is currently in a peer review process; original version submitted October 2023, revised version submitted March 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/   Check us out on social media:  X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify