ARC ENERGY IDEAS

Trump, Tariffs, and Trade: Impacts on Canadian Oil and Gas

Jan 14, 2025

Marcus Rocque, Vice President at the ARC Energy Research Institute, brings his expertise to the table, discussing the precarious impact of potential tariffs on Canadian oil and gas. He and the hosts analyze the complicated trade surplus with the U.S. and its implications. The conversation highlights the U.S.'s ability to find alternative energy sources and considers how tariffs could affect both American consumers and Canadian producers. Rocque also explores the necessity for Canada to enhance market access and adapt its energy policies in light of these geopolitical challenges.

40:45

Episode guests

Marcus Rocque

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Quick takeaways

The potential imposition of tariffs on Canadian oil and gas highlights the complex and interdependent nature of Canada-U.S. trade relations.

Long-term geopolitical strategies must guide Canada in navigating its energy policy and ensuring it remains an equal partner with the U.S.

Deep dives

Impact of Political Chaos on Trade Relations

The ongoing political chaos in the U.S. has significant implications for Canada-U.S. trade relations, particularly concerning tariffs on oil and gas. The discussion highlights Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's concerns about potential tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, emphasizing the need for Canada to assert its special relationship with the U.S. The political climate suggests that there are fears regarding U.S. intentions towards Canada, with some politicians hinting at annexation ideas, which adds to the uncertainty faced by the Canadian energy sector. This situation calls into question how Canada should effectively respond while navigating its own internal political complexities.

Intro

2min

Geopolitical Tensions: Canada in Focus

7min

Analyzing Canada-U.S. Trade Dynamics and Misconceptions

4min

Cross-Border Energy Trade: Canada and the U.S.

21min

Navigating Tariffs and Market Access in Canadian Oil

3min

Strategic Shifts in Energy Policy and Innovation

4min

The threat of tariffs on Canada’s trade with the United States continues to be top of mind, with Alberta’s Premier, Danielle Smith, recently returning from Mar-a-Lago after meeting with President-elect Donald Trump over the weekend.

This week on the podcast, our guest is Marcus Rocque, Vice President at the ARC Energy Research Institute. Marcus joins Jackie and Peter in discussing the potential for Canadian oil and gas tariffs and the possible market implications. They review Canada’s trade surplus with the United States, which is smaller than Donald Trump often claims, and whether the trade surplus is the only motivation for his threats to Canada. Next, they consider the amount of oil and natural gas Canada sends to the United States and the US's ability to substitute some of this consumption with alternative supply. Finally, they consider how the tariffs could impact US consumers and Canadian oil and gas producers.

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