ARC ENERGY IDEAS

Oil pipeline politics are once again in high gear in Canada. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is advancing plans for a 1 MMB/d pipeline to the West Coast of British Columbia, while B.C. Premier David Eby remains firmly opposed. At the same time, during a recent trip to Washington, Mark Carney and Donald Trump reportedly discussed the potential revival of the Keystone XL pipeline, which, if completed, would carry Canadian crude south to the United States. To help us unpack the complexities of Canada’s pipeline politics, our guest this week is the Honourable Jason Kenney — former federal MP and cabinet minister (first elected in 1997 and re-elected five times), former Premier of Alberta, and now a Special Advisor at Bennett Jones. Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Jason Kenney: How did you manage to bring together Alberta’s fractured conservative movement, and do you think that unity could unravel given today’s polarized political climate? What are your thoughts on the “Alberta Next” initiative? What’s your assessment of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first six months in office and his efforts, such as Bill C-5, to accelerate infrastructure development? Under the Canadian constitution, can B.C. block an oil pipeline through the province? Why were you disappointed by the federal Energy and Natural Resources Minister, Tim Hodgson’s, comments about B.C.’s attempts to block the oil pipeline? Content referenced in this podcast: Angus Reid Institute, “Pipeline Push: Majority of Canadians, including BC Residents support the idea of a pipeline to the north coast” (October 9, 2025) Jason Kenney’s X account Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

Canada must raise its level of ambition to compete in today’s rapidly shifting geoeconomic and geopolitical landscape. So far on the podcast, we’ve focused on how diversifying oil and gas exports can strengthen Canada’s power and influence. This week, we turn our attention to another strategic sector — mining. Our guest this week is Photinie Koutsavlis, Vice President of Economic Affairs and Climate Change at the Mining Association of Canada. She joins us to discuss the current state of Canada’s mining industry. Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Photinie Koutsavlis:  How large is Canada’s mining sector, and what are its main products? Since the January 2020 announcement of the Canada–U.S. Joint Action Plan on Critical Minerals, what progress has been made on the ground? Has investment and production grown — and if not, what are the main barriers? Content referenced in this podcast: The Hub.ca, “Peter Tertzakian: Even if Alberta gets a new pipeline, what is next for the oil sands?” (October 4, 2025)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

This week, Jackie and Peter discuss Peter’s recent writing, including his article in The Hub titled “Increasing Canada’s Energy Ambition is an Economic and Geopolitical Imperative” as well as two other pieces, “Geoeconomics and State Capitalism” and “The Cost of Being a Market Hostage.” Peter argues that Canada must raise its level of ambition to compete in today’s geoeconomic and geopolitical environment—one where markets are shaped less by free trade and more by state power, economic coercion, and the strategic use of industries to advance geopolitical objectives. In this new order, the effects of tariffs, sanctions, control of trade routes, and dominance over critical resources are felt daily on the global stage. Yet Canada is not showing up as a true contender. The country remains passive, heavily dependent on the United States for oil and gas exports, at significant cost to the economy. Peter outlines four levels of ambition that Canada could pursue. At the lowest level, the nation remains a “market hostage,” reflecting its current state in oil and gas. A modest step up would be the role of “competitor,” in which new tidewater export capacity expands Canada’s reach. Moving further, Canada could become a “negotiator,” able to leverage energy exports as a bargaining chip in international relations. At the highest level, Canada could aspire to be an “aggressor,” a country that wields genuine market power in vital resources—similar to the way China has achieved influence through state control of strategic industries. Content referenced in this podcast:The Hub.ca, “Increasing Canada’s energy ambition is an economic and geopolitical imperative” (September 9, 2025) Studio.Energy, “Geoeconomics and State Capitalism” and “The Cost of Being a Market Hostage” (September 8, 2025) CTV News, “Here’s what the parliamentary budget officer is warning of ahead of the budget” (September 28, 2025) CBC News, “Canada's GDP rebounds in July after contracting for 3 months” (September 26, 2025) WSJ “Trump Takes Aim at Chip Makers With New Plan to Throttle Imports” (September 26, 2025) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

Brian Schmidt, Founder and CEO of Tamarack Valley Energy, shares insights from Alberta's oil industry. He discusses the unique characteristics of the Clearwater play, advanced drilling technologies, and the significant role of Indigenous partnerships in operations. Brian highlights regulatory challenges and the impact of pipeline capacity on investment decisions. He reveals how investor focus on ESG has evolved and how recent government messaging is changing sentiments towards energy investment. The conversation dives into the future of capital allocation and needed policy reforms for sustained growth.

David Nikolejsin, a strategic advisor at McCarthy Tétrault with vast experience in B.C.'s environmental assessments, shares valuable insights on advancing major projects. He discusses the federal Major Projects Office and emphasizes the need for clear roles between federal and provincial entities. Nikolejsin also explores the evolution of Indigenous rights in B.C. and stresses the importance of collaborative agreements. He argues for a focus on actionable results over bureaucratic processes while acknowledging the challenge of reconciling LNG growth with climate goals.

This week, our guest is Eric Nuttall, Partner and Senior Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners. Eric manages the Ninepoint Energy Fund (NNRG) and the Ninepoint Energy Income Fund (NRGI).  Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Eric: How would you compare investing in Canadian oil and gas producers versus U.S. companies?  Do you still believe Canada is undervalued relative to the U.S., as you did when we spoke a few years ago? With OPEC announcing on September 7, 2025, that it will add even more supply to the market, why are oil prices remaining so resilient, and what is Saudi Arabia’s strategy? What are your expectations for North American natural gas prices, particularly in Canada, which has experienced exceptionally weak pricing this year? Canada has seen a wave of consolidation in the oil patch—how do you view corporate consolidation in this context? You have long advocated for oil and gas producers to buy back shares, but if Canada succeeds in building new export pipelines for oil and gas, would you support companies growing production to create value rather than relying solely on buybacks? How can new export pipelines be built if investors continue to prefer buybacks over growth? Finally, do you believe Canadian oil and gas companies still trade at a “green discount” due to climate policies that burden the sector?Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

After a summer break, Peter and Jackie are back with their weekly podcast. This week, they catch up on the events and news headlines from the summer, including: Geoeconomics – recap examples where countries use economic tools to influence foreign affairs – as well as more moves towards state capitalism by the United States, where the government exercises more control over institutions and companies. Canadian oil patch M&A news. Updates regarding the federal government’s Bill C-5 and its plans for advancing nation-building projects. Tariff negotiation tactics, including news that Canada is removing countervailing tariffs on the United States.  The United States is exerting more influence over the International Energy Agency (IEA), with the organization planning to reintroduce the Current Policies Scenario in the next World Energy Outlook to be released in the fall of 2025. Content referenced in this podcast: CTV, “Hodgeson ‘hopeful’ first batch of major projects announcements to start in the fall” (August 20, 2025) Calgary Herald, “Varcoe: Carney has opened the door to Canadian LNG exports — one closed by Trudeau government, says Liberal natural resources minister” (August 27, 2025) The Vassy Kapelos Show, “I know there are buyers: Federal Energy Minister bullish on LNG as a nation-building project” (August 12, 2025) Oilprice.com, “Republicans Move to Cut U.S. Funding for the IEA” (July 24, 2025) E&ENEWS by Politico, “Trump team pushes for ouster of top IEA official” (August 7, 2025) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

Hosts dive into the pressing need for more oil and gas pipelines in Canada, discussing its critical role in the global energy market. They explore the concept of geoeconomics, revealing how nations wield economic power to shape foreign affairs and predict oil prices. The minimal impact of the recent Iran-Israel conflict on oil prices prompts a deeper analysis of market dynamics. Lastly, tensions over trade policies and tariffs, particularly toward Canada, highlight the looming uncertainties in the energy landscape.

The President of the United States signed the “Big, Beautiful Bill” into law on July 4th. The new legislation brings big changes to the future of U.S. clean energy development. It reduces many (though not all) of the Biden-era subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA). This week on the podcast, our guest is Mike Carr, Executive Director at SEMA Coalition—an organization supporting the U.S.-based solar supply chain. Mike has extensive experience in U.S. federal energy policy, including past positions at the Department of Energy and the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy. Jackie and Peter asked Mike: How would you characterize the Bill’s impact on U.S. clean energy, and what damage has it caused? At a high level, does this major policy shift lessen the appetite for investment, even in areas where subsidies remain, due to concerns about political uncertainty? For clean technology manufacturing, such as solar panels, do the newly introduced restrictions on Foreign Entities of Concern (like China) regarding content, intellectual property, and investment make it more challenging to qualify for the production tax credit (45X)? Renewable energy projects that commence construction within a year of the Bill’s passage can still be eligible for subsidies for the following four years; does this create a construction boom, and what happens afterward? Given China’s dominant position in manufacturing many types of clean energy technology, how should the U.S. compete? Is it better to leapfrog China with innovation, rather than simply following and producing the same technology?Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

Mark Maki, CEO of Trans Mountain Corporation, shares insights on the Trans Mountain pipeline's expansion completed last year, which tripled its capacity. He discusses the anticipated $1.25 billion payment to the Canadian government in 2025, the logistics of shipping oil by tanker, and how the pipeline impacts Canadian oil prices. Maki also explores the regulatory challenges and the potential sale of the pipeline, while addressing the complexities of further expansions and their significance for Canada’s energy future.