ARC ENERGY IDEAS

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter share their insights on Canada’s 2025 federal budget, released last week and expected to pass on November 17. They also briefly introduce the topic of COP30, which started the day they recorded, and Bill Gates’ recent memo on climate.  They discuss several aspects of the budget, including the size of the deficit and debt, government plans to reduce day-to-day operating expenses, and several tax measures—notably, new Productivity Super Deduction and the updated accelerated capital cost depreciation rules for LNG, which are supportive, but still less generous than the Productivity Super Reduction. They also examine the introduction of new investment tax credits (ITCs) for clean energy. These incentives were largely anticipated, having been announced in the previous budget but never enacted. A major focus is the proposed Canada Climate Competitiveness Strategy, which aims to strengthen industrial carbon pricing while preventing carbon leakage. Jackie and Peter explore related policy commitments, including maintaining methane-reduction regulations and the Clean Electricity Regulation, along with signals of possible flexibility around the removal of the oil and gas emissions cap. However, they note that such flexibility may depend on the deployment at scale of carbon capture and storage, which remains uncertain.Content referenced in this podcast includes: Canada Budget 2025 Bill Gates Memo “Three tough truths about climate”  (October 2025) The Hub.ca article by Trevor Tombe “There’s a big gap between rhetoric and reality” (November 2025) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, our guest is Jason Chee-Aloy, Managing Director at Power Advisory LLC. The firm provides expert consulting services in the electricity sector across Canada and the United States. A new report from CanREA and Dunsky forecasts a rapid build-out of new electricity generation across the country. With this growth forecast in mind, Jason shares his insights on several major new electricity generation projects shaping Canada’s power landscape — including the planned hydropower dam expansion along the Churchill River by Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador. Jason, Jackie, and Peter also discussed the proposed Wind West project in Nova Scotia, where the province estimates its offshore wind potential could exceed 60 GW of capacity, with up to 40 GW of dependable output.  In addition, Jason provides an update on Alberta’s ongoing electricity market redesign — the Alberta Restructured Energy Market (REM) — following the release of the Final Design document from the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) in August. Content referenced in this podcast:  Canada’s Renewable Energy Outlook 2025 by CanREA and Dunsky  Wind West Plan by the Nova Scotia Government  Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) Restructure Energy Market Final Design (August 2025) Alberta Electricity System Operator “MPA Independent Assessment of the REM Design” (August 2025)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter begin with a roundup of the latest developments in Canadian energy. They start by discussing Prime Minister Carney’s remarks at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, where he suggested that Canada could export up to 50 million tonnes of LNG per year (about 6.5 Bcf/d) by 2030, with the potential to double that by 2040. They then turn to the upcoming federal budget, which is expected to include details about Canada’s Climate Competitiveness Plan. Another key topic is President Trump’s decision to suspend trade talks with Canada following controversy over Ontario’s free-trade advertisement. Next, the hosts reflect on Peter’s recent commentary in The Hub, titled “Even if Alberta gets a new pipeline, what’s next for the oilsands?” Finally, Jackie talks about her recent appearance on a CBC podcast that explored whether Canada can build pipelines while fighting climate change. She explains why she felt the show’s coverage was not balanced and shares her broader concerns about how climate and energy topics are often framed in mainstream Canadian media.Content referenced in this podcast: The Globe and Mail, “Carney’s climate vision is to deprioritize emissions targets, focus on economic advantages” (October 14, 2025) The Hub “Peter Tertzakian: Even if Alberta gets a new pipeline, what’s next for the oilsands?” (October 4, 2025) CAPP Data Centre, “The Economic Impact of Canadian Oil and Gas,” see slide 23 titled “Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Industry | 2024” Government of Canada Publications, “Public Opinion Research on the National Adaptation Strategy,” (March 2025), see page 6: “A vast majority of people living in Canada (84%) consider climate change an important issue” Angus Reid Institute, “Pipeline Push: Majority of Canadians, including BC Residents support the idea of a pipeline to the north coast” (October 9, 2025) CBC Ideas Podcast “Can we have new pipelines and curb climate change too?” October 7, 2025Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

The Honourable Jason Kenney, a former federal MP and Alberta Premier, shares his insights on Canada’s pressing pipeline politics. He discusses Alberta's push for a West Coast pipeline, the controversial Alberta Next initiative, and the possibility of reviving the Keystone XL project. Delving into the challenges of political polarization, Kenney warns that separatist sentiments could harm investor confidence. He also emphasizes the importance of Indigenous consultations and argues for a balanced approach to climate policy, advocating for realistic energy goals.

Joining the discussion is Photinie Koutsavlis, Vice President of Economic Affairs and Climate Change at the Mining Association of Canada, who brings deep insights into the mining industry's landscape. She highlights the economic significance of mining, the barriers to investment, and evolving infrastructure needs. Koutsavlis delves into Canada’s role in critical minerals and compares U.S. and Canadian industrial responses. With intriguing takes on permitting timelines and China's influence on global pricing, this conversation unveils the complexities of Canada's mining sector.

This week, the hosts dive into Canada's energy ambitions and its struggle against becoming a 'market hostage.' Peter emphasizes the need for Canada to elevate its energy strategy, considering geopolitical shifts and economic coercion. They discuss the importance of diversifying export markets and the potential demand in Asia for Canadian oil and gas. The four tiers of national energy ambition—market hostage, competitor, negotiator, and aggressor—are explored in depth, along with the vital role of aligning government and Indigenous interests in achieving these goals.

Brian Schmidt, Founder and CEO of Tamarack Valley Energy, shares insights from Alberta's oil industry. He discusses the unique characteristics of the Clearwater play, advanced drilling technologies, and the significant role of Indigenous partnerships in operations. Brian highlights regulatory challenges and the impact of pipeline capacity on investment decisions. He reveals how investor focus on ESG has evolved and how recent government messaging is changing sentiments towards energy investment. The conversation dives into the future of capital allocation and needed policy reforms for sustained growth.

David Nikolejsin, a strategic advisor at McCarthy Tétrault with vast experience in B.C.'s environmental assessments, shares valuable insights on advancing major projects. He discusses the federal Major Projects Office and emphasizes the need for clear roles between federal and provincial entities. Nikolejsin also explores the evolution of Indigenous rights in B.C. and stresses the importance of collaborative agreements. He argues for a focus on actionable results over bureaucratic processes while acknowledging the challenge of reconciling LNG growth with climate goals.

This week, our guest is Eric Nuttall, Partner and Senior Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners. Eric manages the Ninepoint Energy Fund (NNRG) and the Ninepoint Energy Income Fund (NRGI).  Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Eric: How would you compare investing in Canadian oil and gas producers versus U.S. companies?  Do you still believe Canada is undervalued relative to the U.S., as you did when we spoke a few years ago? With OPEC announcing on September 7, 2025, that it will add even more supply to the market, why are oil prices remaining so resilient, and what is Saudi Arabia’s strategy? What are your expectations for North American natural gas prices, particularly in Canada, which has experienced exceptionally weak pricing this year? Canada has seen a wave of consolidation in the oil patch—how do you view corporate consolidation in this context? You have long advocated for oil and gas producers to buy back shares, but if Canada succeeds in building new export pipelines for oil and gas, would you support companies growing production to create value rather than relying solely on buybacks? How can new export pipelines be built if investors continue to prefer buybacks over growth? Finally, do you believe Canadian oil and gas companies still trade at a “green discount” due to climate policies that burden the sector?Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

After a summer break, Peter and Jackie are back with their weekly podcast. This week, they catch up on the events and news headlines from the summer, including: Geoeconomics – recap examples where countries use economic tools to influence foreign affairs – as well as more moves towards state capitalism by the United States, where the government exercises more control over institutions and companies. Canadian oil patch M&A news. Updates regarding the federal government’s Bill C-5 and its plans for advancing nation-building projects. Tariff negotiation tactics, including news that Canada is removing countervailing tariffs on the United States.  The United States is exerting more influence over the International Energy Agency (IEA), with the organization planning to reintroduce the Current Policies Scenario in the next World Energy Outlook to be released in the fall of 2025. Content referenced in this podcast: CTV, “Hodgeson ‘hopeful’ first batch of major projects announcements to start in the fall” (August 20, 2025) Calgary Herald, “Varcoe: Carney has opened the door to Canadian LNG exports — one closed by Trudeau government, says Liberal natural resources minister” (August 27, 2025) The Vassy Kapelos Show, “I know there are buyers: Federal Energy Minister bullish on LNG as a nation-building project” (August 12, 2025) Oilprice.com, “Republicans Move to Cut U.S. Funding for the IEA” (July 24, 2025) E&ENEWS by Politico, “Trump team pushes for ouster of top IEA official” (August 7, 2025) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify