ARC ENERGY IDEAS

The discussion kicks off with an analysis of the latest Canadian federal election news and candidates' performances in the leaders' debate. The clean energy sector faces a dichotomy with mature technologies thriving, while new ventures struggle for support. China’s massive investment in clean energy technology raises concerns about competitive dynamics globally and the impact of U.S. tariffs. The hosts delve into the challenges of attracting private investment and navigating political platforms amidst economic uncertainty, particularly in light of a potential recession.

To begin this week’s podcast, Peter and Jackie recap the past week's events, including President Trump's tariff U-turn and the escalating US-China tariff war.Next, the conversation turns to Canada, the upcoming federal election, and Arctic export ports. To help us understand the opportunities and challenges with Arctic ports, Chris Avery, CEO of the Arctic Gateway Group joins the show. The Arctic Gateway Group is an Indigenous and community-owned transportation company that operates the Port of Churchill—Canada’s only Arctic seaport serviced by rail—and the Hudson Bay Railway, connecting The Pas to Churchill, Manitoba.Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Chris: What is the condition of the rail line to the port now? What types of goods are currently exported from the port, and what types are expected to be exported in the future? Is it a deep-water port? How much of the year is Hudson Bay covered by ice, preventing exports? Is it feasible to break the ice? They also discussed whether the port could be suitable for LNG exports. Content referenced in this podcast:Mark Carney, Liberal platform, economic pillars for change with a plan for Arctic ports (note, the Conservative party of Canada also has an Arctic control and sovereignty plan, but it does not explicitly identify energy export ports). Energy News “Arctic Pipelines to Capture European Market” (March 26, 2025), reporting that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s initiative aimed at expanding the country’s oil infrastructure toward the ArcticLNG Industry, “Ice-breaking LNG carrier for Yamal LNG project named Vladimir Rusanov” (January 2018)Ship Technology “Mikhail Ulyanov Ice-Class Tanker” (December 2008)The BC Government announces more flexibility for the LNG net-zero 2030 policy, see March 28, 2025 letter to project proponent and updated Climate Action Secretariat’s Net Zero Plan Requirements Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter discuss the significant volatility in the financial markets due to the escalating global trade war unleashed by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2nd. Economists and banks are sounding the alarm about the increased risk of a global recession. At the same time, oil prices have fallen by about $US 10/B due to fears of a recession and news that OPEC+ is adding more supply than expected into the market. In Canada, the uncertainty is further compounded by the upcoming federal election scheduled for April 28th, 2025.Content referenced in this podcast:Financial Times, “In charts: winners and losers from Trump’s new tariffs” (April 4, 2025)BNN Bloomberg, Trump’s tariffs to send U.S. into recession: JP Morgan (April 6, 2025)Polymarket, “ US recession in 2025?”Reuters, “OPEC+ unexpectedly speeds up oil output hikes, oil drops” (April 3, 2025)338Canada, Canadian Federal Election PollingPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Brian Appelbe, a Research Fellow at Imperial College London's Centre for Inertial Fusion Studies, delves into the promising realm of fusion energy. He discusses how this groundbreaking technology aims to replicate the sun’s power for clean energy. Recent milestones, including achieving net energy gain, are highlighted. Brian also explores how private investments and technological advances are accelerating the timeline for commercial fusion. With its potential for low-cost electricity, fusion could revolutionize our approach to energy in the near future.

This week our guest is Duane Reid-Carlson, President of EDC Associates Ltd., an independent electricity-focused consulting firm based in Calgary, Canada. The firm focuses closely on Alberta power markets. EDC recently published its quarterly report and had some critical words about the government's proposed changes for Alberta’s electricity market – called the Restructured Energy Market (REM) - describing it as a “highly complex, expensive, inefficient experiment.” The same sentiment was reflected by almost all the 36 organizations that participated in the Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO)’s feedback process in early 2025. Stakeholders were nearly unanimous in their comments that the changes will make Alberta’s electricity markets more expensive and less reliable – the exact attributes the redesign promised to fix. The sharp criticism spans all industry segments – from natural gas generators and renewable energy developers to consumers and transmission companies. Participants also raised the issue of the AESO skipping the regulatory review from the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC), which provides an independent review by a regulatory body as a safeguard to prevent any unintended negative consequences from the redesign.   Peter and Jackie examine the concerns and potential long-term negative implications for Alberta’s electricity grid, generators, and consumers with Duane Reid-Carlson. Content referenced in this podcast: Stakeholder submissions to the AESO on the Restructured Energy Market (REM) design, January 2025 Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

François Poirier, President and CEO of TC Energy, sheds light on pressing themes from the CERAWeek Conference. He discusses the challenges of building energy infrastructure in North America, including permitting and the potential revival of the Keystone XL and Energy East pipelines. Poirier also examines the strategic shift towards natural gas, driven by demand from AI data centers, and emphasizes the need for collaboration among Canada, the U.S., and Mexico to enhance energy reliability and affordability.

This week, our guest is Mark Fitzgerald, President and CEO of PETRONAS Canada, which owns a 25% stake in LNG Canada. LNG Canada will be Canada’s first major LNG export terminal and is expected to start shipping Canadian natural gas to global markets from Kitimat, British Columbia, later this year. PETRONAS is one of the largest LNG operators in the world and has a key position in the Montney, Canada’s leading and world-class shale gas play.Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Mark: What is the economic impact of LNG Canada Phase 1? How does the Montney compare to other natural gas plays globally? Can Canadian LNG compete with other global suppliers to Asia? How does the carbon emissions intensity of Canadian LNG compare to other suppliers? How would you describe the risk of investing in a Canadian LNG export terminal, compared with other countries where PETRONAS invests? Investment in Canadian LNG has been less than expected compared to a decade ago; what needs to change for Canada to attract new capital for building LNG export facilities? In your view, did BC Premier David Eby's announcement to fast-track 18 projects help address any barriers to investment? Does BC still require LNG facilities to be net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and does any other country require this? Are there any updates on the potential for a final investment decision (FID) on LNG Canada Phase 2?Content referenced in this podcast:338Canada  – Canadian Federal Election PollingPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

The discussion highlights Canada's vast natural resources and the need for strategic change to attract investment. Historical perspectives reveal a long-standing potential for profit, yet recent years show a concerning capital flight from the energy sector. The geopolitical implications of LNG development are scrutinized, especially amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Challenges faced by the Canadian investment landscape are examined, with calls for streamlined regulatory processes to enhance economic growth and sovereignty, contrasting with the U.S. approach to energy independence.

This week, our guest is Dan Hoffarth, Chief Executive Officer of Citadel Drilling, a Canadian-based drilling contractor operating in the Permian Basin. Citadel Drilling provides high-performance, automated drilling rigs designed for efficiency and safety.Jackie and Peter ask Dan to fact-check the popular show "Landman” currently streaming on Paramount+. The series is set in the Permian Basin, featuring Billy Bob Thornton as Tommy Norris, a landman who also serves as the VP of Operations.The discussion also provides an update on the Permian Basin, which has surpassed all of Western Canada in oil and gas production and stands as the world's largest producing basin. The rapid production growth in the Permian Basin has cemented the United States' position as the largest producer of oil and gas globally, by a significant margin. They also discuss Donald Trump’s plan to “drill baby drill” and what that could mean for the future of US oil and gas production.Content referenced in this podcast:Jackie and Peter’s podcast from April 2019 about Jackie’s trip to the Permian BasinJackie’s blog on the Permian Basin from 2019 - Updated to include the rattlesnake picture referenced in this podcastAaron Foyer’s post on GHG emissions savings from wind turbines Enverus blog on methane flaring in the Permian Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Explore Canada's energy security weaknesses and its heavy reliance on U.S. crude oil and natural gas. The hosts discuss the economic implications of tariffs and recent Canadian governmental efforts to enhance infrastructure. They emphasize the need for interprovincial trade improvements and capital investment to bolster energy independence. Geopolitical tensions and evolving carbon policies add complexity to the energy landscape, while the urgency of addressing electricity demands to support future ambitions is highlighted.