ARC ENERGY IDEAS

Hosts dive into the pressing need for more oil and gas pipelines in Canada, discussing its critical role in the global energy market. They explore the concept of geoeconomics, revealing how nations wield economic power to shape foreign affairs and predict oil prices. The minimal impact of the recent Iran-Israel conflict on oil prices prompts a deeper analysis of market dynamics. Lastly, tensions over trade policies and tariffs, particularly toward Canada, highlight the looming uncertainties in the energy landscape.

The President of the United States signed the “Big, Beautiful Bill” into law on July 4th. The new legislation brings big changes to the future of U.S. clean energy development. It reduces many (though not all) of the Biden-era subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA). This week on the podcast, our guest is Mike Carr, Executive Director at SEMA Coalition—an organization supporting the U.S.-based solar supply chain. Mike has extensive experience in U.S. federal energy policy, including past positions at the Department of Energy and the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy. Jackie and Peter asked Mike: How would you characterize the Bill’s impact on U.S. clean energy, and what damage has it caused? At a high level, does this major policy shift lessen the appetite for investment, even in areas where subsidies remain, due to concerns about political uncertainty? For clean technology manufacturing, such as solar panels, do the newly introduced restrictions on Foreign Entities of Concern (like China) regarding content, intellectual property, and investment make it more challenging to qualify for the production tax credit (45X)? Renewable energy projects that commence construction within a year of the Bill’s passage can still be eligible for subsidies for the following four years; does this create a construction boom, and what happens afterward? Given China’s dominant position in manufacturing many types of clean energy technology, how should the U.S. compete? Is it better to leapfrog China with innovation, rather than simply following and producing the same technology?Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

Mark Maki, CEO of Trans Mountain Corporation, shares insights on the Trans Mountain pipeline's expansion completed last year, which tripled its capacity. He discusses the anticipated $1.25 billion payment to the Canadian government in 2025, the logistics of shipping oil by tanker, and how the pipeline impacts Canadian oil prices. Maki also explores the regulatory challenges and the potential sale of the pipeline, while addressing the complexities of further expansions and their significance for Canada’s energy future.

Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global and Pulitzer Prize-winning author known for his expertise in energy economics, shares insights into the troubled energy transition. He argues for a pragmatic approach, questioning the feasibility of the 'fast energy transition' scenario. Yergin discusses OPEC's strategies amid weaker demand and the implications of China's dominance in clean energy on U.S. competitiveness. Additionally, he offers advice for Canada on navigating U.S. trade pressures, emphasizing the importance of robust energy infrastructure and cooperation on critical minerals.

This week on the podcast, we discussed Jackie’s recent visit to St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, to attend the Energy NL conference. Energy NL is the province’s energy supply and service sector association, which annually hosts the province’s flagship conference on conventional and clean energy. This week, Charlene Johnson, Chief Executive Officer of Energy NL, joins the podcast to explore Newfoundland and Labrador’s energy potential and the discussions at the conference. Among the topics covered were potential nation-building projects, such as the Churchill River hydroelectric development—a joint $33 billion potential initiative by Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and Hydro-Québec that aims to add nearly 4 GW of new electricity generation capacity on the river. Another significant project discussed was Equinor’s Bay du Nord offshore oil development, which could open a new offshore basin 500 km off the coast of Newfoundland. In addition to covering the conference highlights, Jackie and Peter recapped the past week’s events, including the constructive First Ministers’ meeting in Saskatoon on June 2nd. During this meeting, Prime Minister Carney outlined the criteria for nation-building projects. Furthermore, on June 6th, the Carney government tabled new legislation, “Bill C-5: One Canadian Economy: An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act.” The goal is to pass the bill into law by Canada Day. Content referenced in this podcast: Visit Peter Tertzakian's art show at the Elevation Gallery in Canmore, “Persistence, Obsolescence and Renewal: A Visual Inquiry Into the Lifecycle of Energy Infrastructure.” Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) approach to extensive load connections (Data Centres), June 4 Avik Dey, President and CEO of Capital Power, LinkedIn post regarding AESO’s approach to data centre development, June 4 Prime Minister of Canada Office, “First Ministers’ statement on building a strong Canadian economy and advancing major projects,” June 2 “Bill C-5: One Canadian Economy: An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act,” tabled June 5 “Insiders say Mark Carney could compromise on the emissions cap,” Toronto Star, June 6 Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Josh Schertzer, CEO of Beacon AI Centers, shares exciting plans for developing AI data centers in Alberta, aiming for a potential $10 billion investment. He discusses the immense electricity demand from these centers and the concerns about rising energy prices for Albertans. Schertzer emphasizes innovative energy solutions like carbon capture and hybrid systems. He also touches on job creation, predicting up to 1,500 construction jobs and hundreds of permanent positions, positioning Alberta as a key player in the AI landscape.

The Honourable Gordon Campbell, former Premier of British Columbia and Canadian High Commissioner to the UK, joins the conversation to unpack Canada's evolving energy landscape. He discusses the urgency for policy changes that align federal and provincial agendas to boost energy development. Campbell critiques the current government's investment strategies while advocating for natural gas as a path to both economic growth and sustainability. He emphasizes the need for actionable reforms to bridge the gap between political pledges and real-world outcomes in energy and infrastructure.

Heather Exner-Pirot, a Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, dives into the complexities of Arctic infrastructure and resource development with a focus on security challenges and climate policy. She discusses the potential for new Arctic export corridors and critiques Canada’s greenwashing regulations. Heather also advocates for reforms to the Impact Assessment Act to speed up project development. Finally, she highlights the transformative potential of micro reactors in remote locations and emphasizes the importance of Indigenous equity in major projects.

After averaging around $US 75/B over the past few years, the WTI oil price fell below $US 60/B in early May. The weakness is driven by growing concerns about a potential recession resulting from US tariffs and announcements from the OPEC+ group that they will accelerate adding supply to the market, just as demand may be softening. To help us understand the recent volatility in oil prices, our guest this week is Jeremy Irwin, Global Crude Lead at Energy Aspects. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Jeremy: Is this a repeat of 2015, when OPEC decided to flood the market to weaken US shale oil producers? Is President Trump influencing the OPEC+ strategy, as he may want lower oil prices to help offset the inflationary effects of US tariffs? At current price levels, how will US oil production respond? If profit is tight at lower prices, will US oil producers prioritize paying shareholders or capital spending? How might changes to US sanctions on Venezuela, Russia, and Iran impact the oil market? When do you expect global (and China’s) oil demand to peak? In the short term, how serious is the threat of recession to oil demand? Do you expect Canadian oil export infrastructure to expand? Content referenced in this podcast:See the Energy Aspects website to learn more about their research data, tools, and consulting servicesPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Greg Lyle, founder of Innovative Research Group, dives into the implications of Mark Carney's recent election as Prime Minister. He discusses the surprising election outcomes and potential bipartisan efforts in energy policy. The conversation highlights clean energy initiatives, LNG export facilities, and the importance of carbon capture and storage projects. Additionally, Lyle addresses how amendments to the Impact Assessment Act could streamline project approvals, reflecting a critical moment in Canada's journey toward becoming an energy superpower.