ARC ENERGY IDEAS

A memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Alberta and the Canadian federal government was signed on November 27, 2025. It declared a shared goal of making Canada a global energy superpower by building one or more privately financed oil pipelines, co-owned with Indigenous Peoples, to ship at least 1 million barrels per day of low-emission Alberta bitumen, prioritizing routes to Asian markets, and submitting an application to the Major Projects Office by July 1.   Building the pipeline requires building the large-scale oil sands Pathways carbon capture and storage (CCS) project. Alberta and the federal government will also engage with the Government of British Columbia on the pipeline initiative. Among other commitments, the MOU pledges to suspend the Canadian Electricity Regulations (CER) as they apply to Alberta and to scrap the proposed nationwide oil and gas emissions cap for producers. Further details are expected to be finalized by April 1. To unpack this tectonic shift in Alberta–Ottawa relations—along with the first wave of media coverage and the deal’s potential benefits for Canada —Peter and Jackie are joined by guest Deborah Yedlin, President and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. Content referenced in this podcast:Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (November 27, 2025) Angus Reid Institute Polling on Support and Opposition for Alberta-BC Pipeline (November 27, 2025) CBC At Issues Panel on Carney’s Alberta Pipeline Partnership (November 28, 2025)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, we dig into a new report on renewable growth in Canada, “Canada’s Renewable Energy Market Outlook 2025”, a joint study by Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors and the Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA). To unpack the findings and the broader state of renewables in Canada, we’re joined by Leonard Kula (Vice President of Policy – Eastern Canada and Utility Affairs, CanREA), Ahmed Hanafy (Partner, Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors), and Vittoria Bellissimo (President and CEO, CanREA). Peter and Jackie asked our guests: What are your expectations for growth in Canadian electricity demand through 2035 and 2050? How does demand from AI data centers contribute? As intermittent renewable generation rises, do you see technical limits, such as reliability, that put a ceiling on growth?  Do project developers source the wind turbines and solar modules from China, and should Canada push for more domestic content? Do renewables face issues with “not in my backyard” (NIMBYism)? Can renewables contribute meaningfully to meeting the fast-growing demand from data centers, which need near-perfect levels of reliability? Do you expect renewable energy growth in Alberta, given the market changes that have weakened the investment case?  Content referenced in this podcast includes:Bell: Go time! Danielle Smith and Mark Carney agree to a pipeline deal - Calgary Herald (November 22, 2025)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter break down the Canadian government’s latest release of nation-building projects. The second tranche includes a major LNG export development, Ksi Lisims LNG, along with a new electricity transmission line in Northwest B.C., three mining projects, and plans for a Northwest Critical Conservation Corridor. They then turn to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2025, which reintroduces the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) after a five-year hiatus. The CPS examines how global energy demand evolves under existing policies and shows oil and gas consumption continuing to grow through 2050. The report also highlights the energy requirements of rapidly expanding AI data centers. Jackie and Peter debate how this surge in load will be met—and which energy sources are most likely to power it. Content referenced in this podcast includes:Prime Minister Carney announces second tranche of nation-building projects referred to the Major Projects Office (November 13, 2025) IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 (November 12, 2025) Open Circuit Podcast (November 7, 2025) The Stargate Project (January 2025) How Meta’s Data Centers Drive Economic Growth Across the US (November 7, 2025) US electric vehicle sales slow as Trump champions petrol (November 13, 2025) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter share their insights on Canada’s 2025 federal budget, released last week and expected to pass on November 17. They also briefly introduce the topic of COP30, which started the day they recorded, and Bill Gates’ recent memo on climate.  They discuss several aspects of the budget, including the size of the deficit and debt, government plans to reduce day-to-day operating expenses, and several tax measures—notably, new Productivity Super Deduction and the updated accelerated capital cost depreciation rules for LNG, which are supportive, but still less generous than the Productivity Super Reduction. They also examine the introduction of new investment tax credits (ITCs) for clean energy. These incentives were largely anticipated, having been announced in the previous budget but never enacted. A major focus is the proposed Canada Climate Competitiveness Strategy, which aims to strengthen industrial carbon pricing while preventing carbon leakage. Jackie and Peter explore related policy commitments, including maintaining methane-reduction regulations and the Clean Electricity Regulation, along with signals of possible flexibility around the removal of the oil and gas emissions cap. However, they note that such flexibility may depend on the deployment at scale of carbon capture and storage, which remains uncertain.Content referenced in this podcast includes: Canada Budget 2025 Bill Gates Memo “Three tough truths about climate”  (October 2025) The Hub.ca article by Trevor Tombe “There’s a big gap between rhetoric and reality” (November 2025) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, our guest is Jason Chee-Aloy, Managing Director at Power Advisory LLC. The firm provides expert consulting services in the electricity sector across Canada and the United States. A new report from CanREA and Dunsky forecasts a rapid build-out of new electricity generation across the country. With this growth forecast in mind, Jason shares his insights on several major new electricity generation projects shaping Canada’s power landscape — including the planned hydropower dam expansion along the Churchill River by Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador. Jason, Jackie, and Peter also discussed the proposed Wind West project in Nova Scotia, where the province estimates its offshore wind potential could exceed 60 GW of capacity, with up to 40 GW of dependable output.  In addition, Jason provides an update on Alberta’s ongoing electricity market redesign — the Alberta Restructured Energy Market (REM) — following the release of the Final Design document from the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) in August. Content referenced in this podcast:  Canada’s Renewable Energy Outlook 2025 by CanREA and Dunsky  Wind West Plan by the Nova Scotia Government  Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) Restructure Energy Market Final Design (August 2025) Alberta Electricity System Operator “MPA Independent Assessment of the REM Design” (August 2025)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter begin with a roundup of the latest developments in Canadian energy. They start by discussing Prime Minister Carney’s remarks at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, where he suggested that Canada could export up to 50 million tonnes of LNG per year (about 6.5 Bcf/d) by 2030, with the potential to double that by 2040. They then turn to the upcoming federal budget, which is expected to include details about Canada’s Climate Competitiveness Plan. Another key topic is President Trump’s decision to suspend trade talks with Canada following controversy over Ontario’s free-trade advertisement. Next, the hosts reflect on Peter’s recent commentary in The Hub, titled “Even if Alberta gets a new pipeline, what’s next for the oilsands?” Finally, Jackie talks about her recent appearance on a CBC podcast that explored whether Canada can build pipelines while fighting climate change. She explains why she felt the show’s coverage was not balanced and shares her broader concerns about how climate and energy topics are often framed in mainstream Canadian media.Content referenced in this podcast: The Globe and Mail, “Carney’s climate vision is to deprioritize emissions targets, focus on economic advantages” (October 14, 2025) The Hub “Peter Tertzakian: Even if Alberta gets a new pipeline, what’s next for the oilsands?” (October 4, 2025) CAPP Data Centre, “The Economic Impact of Canadian Oil and Gas,” see slide 23 titled “Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Industry | 2024” Government of Canada Publications, “Public Opinion Research on the National Adaptation Strategy,” (March 2025), see page 6: “A vast majority of people living in Canada (84%) consider climate change an important issue” Angus Reid Institute, “Pipeline Push: Majority of Canadians, including BC Residents support the idea of a pipeline to the north coast” (October 9, 2025) CBC Ideas Podcast “Can we have new pipelines and curb climate change too?” October 7, 2025Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

The Honourable Jason Kenney, a former federal MP and Alberta Premier, shares his insights on Canada’s pressing pipeline politics. He discusses Alberta's push for a West Coast pipeline, the controversial Alberta Next initiative, and the possibility of reviving the Keystone XL project. Delving into the challenges of political polarization, Kenney warns that separatist sentiments could harm investor confidence. He also emphasizes the importance of Indigenous consultations and argues for a balanced approach to climate policy, advocating for realistic energy goals.

Joining the discussion is Photinie Koutsavlis, Vice President of Economic Affairs and Climate Change at the Mining Association of Canada, who brings deep insights into the mining industry's landscape. She highlights the economic significance of mining, the barriers to investment, and evolving infrastructure needs. Koutsavlis delves into Canada’s role in critical minerals and compares U.S. and Canadian industrial responses. With intriguing takes on permitting timelines and China's influence on global pricing, this conversation unveils the complexities of Canada's mining sector.

This week, the hosts dive into Canada's energy ambitions and its struggle against becoming a 'market hostage.' Peter emphasizes the need for Canada to elevate its energy strategy, considering geopolitical shifts and economic coercion. They discuss the importance of diversifying export markets and the potential demand in Asia for Canadian oil and gas. The four tiers of national energy ambition—market hostage, competitor, negotiator, and aggressor—are explored in depth, along with the vital role of aligning government and Indigenous interests in achieving these goals.

Brian Schmidt, Founder and CEO of Tamarack Valley Energy, shares insights from Alberta's oil industry. He discusses the unique characteristics of the Clearwater play, advanced drilling technologies, and the significant role of Indigenous partnerships in operations. Brian highlights regulatory challenges and the impact of pipeline capacity on investment decisions. He reveals how investor focus on ESG has evolved and how recent government messaging is changing sentiments towards energy investment. The conversation dives into the future of capital allocation and needed policy reforms for sustained growth.