The Year Ahead: Top Energy Themes and Trudeau’s Resignation
Jan 7, 2025
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The hosts kick off the year by examining their 2024 predictions and introducing key energy themes for 2025. They dive into the political upheaval surrounding Prime Minister Trudeau's resignation and its expected impact on the energy sector. Upcoming challenges in the gas market and the role of AI in energy efficiency also take the spotlight. Additionally, they discuss Canada’s revised Clean Electricity Regulations, extending its net-zero target to 2050, and the complexities surrounding energy security and affordability.
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Quick takeaways
The resignation of Prime Minister Trudeau may signify upcoming shifts in Canadian energy policies and governmental responses to market challenges.
In 2025, energy security and sovereignty are expected to dominate discussions as the clean energy sector faces selective investment pressures and policy scrutiny.
Deep dives
Impact of Television on Oil and Gas Perception
A new television show, *The Landman*, provides a unique perspective on the oil and gas industry, focusing on its operations in the Permian Basin. Unlike typical portrayals in shows like *Dallas*, this series offers a closer look at the everyday workings of the industry, even if it is somewhat sensationalized. The growing popularity of such programs comes amid shifting public sentiment towards oil and gas, reflecting a renewed interest in the sector after a decade of skepticism. This trend shows the potential for media to shape perceptions about the energy industry, possibly influencing public opinion and policy changes.
Predictions and Market Trends for 2025
Reflecting on predictions for 2024, about 65-70% were accurate, covering various aspects such as U.S. elections and energy policies. Discussions included the stability of oil prices amid Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, ultimately revealing oil prices remained moderate, hovering over $70. The predictions emphasized an expected increase in mergers and acquisitions within the Canadian oil and gas sector, highlighted by CNRL's acquisition of Chevron's assets. Overall, these predictions indicate broader themes of market consolidation and the need for strategic planning in the evolving energy landscape.
The Landscape of Clean Energy Investments
The clean energy sector faced significant challenges in 2024, with a notable decline in the clean energy index and several bankruptcies among major players. While sectors like wind, solar, and EVs continued to show growth, there was a sharp discrimination in market performance favoring companies that demonstrated profitability. Investors began pulling funding from underperforming sectors, such as hydrogen and biofuels, which struggled to gain traction. As a result, 2025 is anticipated to witness increased scrutiny and a more selective investment strategy within the clean energy market.
Political Uncertainties and Energy Policies in Canada
Canada's political landscape is undergoing significant changes, particularly with anticipated leadership transitions that could impact energy policies and regulations. The potential resignation of Prime Minister Trudeau raises questions about the implications for upcoming elections and the direction of energy strategies. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs from the U.S. emphasizes the need for a coherent Canadian response to mitigate economic impact, particularly on oil and gas producers. As trade negotiations expand and the energy crisis intensifies, the focus on energy sovereignty and market access becomes more crucial for future Canadian energy plans.
Peter and Jackie start the new year by reviewing their predictions from 2024: what did they get right, and what did they miss?
Next, they introduce their top energy themes to watch in 2025 and some predictions. Themes include changing governments and policy in the US and Canada – including the breaking news at the time of recording that Prime Minister Trudeau was resigning. They also predict the return of energy security and sovereignty as a growing conversation in 2025.
Finally, they discuss Canada’s Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), published in the Gazette, Part II, at the end of 2024. The final rule aims to achieve net zero electricity in Canada by 2050 versus 2035 (the target in an earlier draft).