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ARC ENERGY IDEAS
Why I Hate S-Curves: An Interview with Rob West from Thunder Said Energy
Sep 10, 2024
Rob West, founder and CEO of Thunder Said Energy, shares his insights from Estonia on the energy transition. He criticizes the use of S-curves to forecast growth in new energy tech, arguing they oversimplify real-world dynamics. The conversation touches on the recent sell-off in clean energy stocks and the challenges they face. West explores AI’s expected doubling of electricity demand and emphasizes the critical role that solar energy plays. He also spotlights natural hydrogen's potential as the next energy gold rush and discusses the bottlenecks posed by power grids.
42:26
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Quick takeaways
- Rob West critiques the reliance on S-curves for forecasting energy technology growth, advocating for realistic analysis of market potentials.
- The anticipated surge in electricity demand due to AI highlights the urgent need for substantial investments in renewable and natural gas power generation.
Deep dives
Challenges in Clean Tech Financing
The rising complexity of financing clean technology is underscored as many clean tech companies face increased operational risks and funding challenges. As stock prices for clean tech firms have fallen significantly, the cost of capital has risen, making it difficult for these companies to secure additional funding beyond initial governmental support. Notably, well-known investors like Amazon and Bill Gates have seen some of their backed ventures declare bankruptcy due to this financial strain. The discussion emphasizes that without a substantial increase in private investment capital, the energy transition may encounter significant hurdles in the coming years.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode