There are moments in life where it seems as though everything is riding on one important decision. If only we had a crystal ball to see the future, we could make those decisions with greater confidence. Fortune-telling aside, there are actually methods to improve our predictions—and our decisions.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at what makes some people “superforecasters.” In 2010, the United States government had been looking for Al Qaeda leader and perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks, Osama bin Laden, for nearly a decade. Years of intelligence gathering all over the world had come up short. It seemed every new tip was a dead end. But one small group of CIA analysts uncovered a tantalizing clue that led them to a compound in Pakistan. Soon, the president of the United States would be faced with a difficult choice: to approve the top-secret mission or not.We will hear this story from two perspectives. Peter Bergen is a national security commentator and author of the book The Rise and Fall of Osama bin Laden. He interviewed Osama bin Laden in 1997.Former CIA director Leon Panetta led the United States government’s hunt for bin Laden and describes the night his mission came to a dramatic conclusion.Next, Katy speaks with Barbara Mellers about research that shows how so-called superforecasters make more accurate predictions despite facing uncertainty and conflicting information. You can read more in the paper titled "Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions."Barabara Mellers is the I. George Heyman University Professor of both marketing at the Wharton School and of psychology at the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania. Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0623-3UG1)

If you ran a survey at a science fiction convention to find out which movies were most popular with the general public, chances are good that the results would lean heavily towards sci-fi films. This skewing of data is plain to see in this context, but in many others it’s less obvious and potentially more pernicious.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at a bias that can distort information that we gather from the world around us.First, W. Joseph Campbell tells the story of the infamous Literary Digest election poll of 1936. The publication had correctly predicted several presidential elections in the 1920s and '30s and was considered the most reputable pollster of its day. They sent millions of surveys to people across the United States in advance of the 1936 election. But this time, their predictions couldn’t have been further from the results.W. Joseph Campbell is a professor of communications at American University and author of Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections.Next, Katy speaks with Emily Oster about research that shows how a bias in the way information is collected and presented can affect many decisions, especially ones related to health and parenting. You can read more in her latest book, The Family Firm: A Data-Driven Guide to Better Decision Making in the Early School Years.Emily Oster is the JJE Goldman Sachs University Professor of Economics at Brown University.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0523-38JC) 

On this special bonus episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we highlight Ripple Effect, a new podcast from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Hosted by Dan Loney, Ripple Effect showcases research by Wharton faculty and shares what their insights mean for you.As part of a series on women and work, this episode of Ripple Effect features Choiceology host and Wharton professor Katy Milkman. After years of conducting research on gender bias in the workplace, Katy has reached a singular conclusion: Systemic change is necessary to create long-lasting progress towards diversity, equity, and inclusion. She shares some insights from her most significant studies on diversity training and hiring bias.You can listen to more episodes of Ripple Effect at whr.tn/rippleeffect or wherever you get your podcasts.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0523-3GFY)

We all make decisions involving risk. Decisions like trying out for your school’s chess team, speaking up when you don’t agree with your boss, or going down a double-black-diamond run at the end of a long day of skiing. So how do we determine which risks are worth taking and which ones are too … risky?In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at gender differences around confidence and uncertainty, and how we can all better calibrate our bravado.Surfing waves as tall as apartment buildings takes a lot of strength and skill and preparation. It also involves risk—mistakes can lead to broken bones, concussions, or worse. But as Bianca Valenti explains, those risks can be managed, and there are big rewards in those big waves.Bianca Valenti is a world-champion surfer, speaker, activist, and entrepreneur. Watch her award-winning ride for the Mavericks Awards.Next, Katy speaks with Katherine Coffman about research that explores how gender stereotypes shape beliefs about taking risks.You can read more in the working paper she co-authored, called "A (Dynamic) Investigation of Stereotypes, Belief-Updating, and Behavior."Katherine Coffman is the Piramal Associate Professor of Business Administration in the Negotiations, Organizations & Markets unit at the Harvard Business School.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0423-3619)

Finding a new favorite celebrity feels a little bit like falling in love. Perhaps you find their smile endearing, or you relate to their sense of humor. Maybe you see things in your everyday routine that remind you of them. You feel like you know them so well. But whether it’s a star athlete or a Hollywood type, the reality is they likely have no idea who you are. In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we explore how we can develop deep connections with complete strangers — and how that in turn makes us feel more known. BTS is the biggest boy band in the world but their popularity is not only thanks to their musical talents and highly choreographed performances. BTS has, like many other K-pop groups in South Korea, perfected the art of cultivating relationships with their fans. But when idols fail to meet fan expectations, there can be drastic consequences. Hannah Sung explains what drew her to BTS and sheds light on the power of their fandom, known as ARMY. Hannah Sung is a journalist and co-founder of the Media Girlfriends podcast company.Crystal Tai tells the story of another K-pop idol, Lee Sungmin, who went from being one of Super Junior’s most popular members to being boycotted for the last decade, due to what is known in the industry as a “dating scandal.” Crystal Tai is a senior managing editor at Jing Daily and author of the book Honjok.Next, Katy speaks with Anuj Shah about research that shows even small tidbits of information about a stranger can cause people to mistakenly think that stranger knows them, and how a neighborhood policing initiative tested this hypothesis with surprising results.You can read more in a paper he co-authored called Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity.Anuj Shah is an associate professor of behavioral science at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.Choiceology is an original podcast fromCharles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(00423-3ZRB)

Mullets. Skinny jeans. Crocs. Many of us can recall trends that we've jumped on, only to see those trends become passé soon after. But the fear of missing out can snowball into heavier consequences.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at how speculation and rapidly growing trends, however niche, can cloud people's judgment. A tight knit group of friends in Chicago start buying stuffed animals from a little-known toymaker, called Ty Warner, for their kids. The friends' enthusiasm for the toys is contagious, and soon the demand for these cute stuffed animals, called Beanie Babies, is growing so quickly that people are treating them as investments. People are lining up for hours to get their hands on the newest releases. Parents are using their kids' college funds to collect Beanie Babies. Collectors are buying secondhand Beanie Babies for thousands of dollars. Filmmaker Yemisi Brookes tells the story of how a group of moms launched an unassuming stuffed toy to unexpected highs—and lows.Yemisi Brookes is the director of the documentary Beanie Mania, available on HBO. Next, Katy speaks with Robert Cialdini about his research that shows while humans are influenced by what a majority of people are doing, humans pay special attention to trends that are growing, even if it begins with just a small fraction of the population. You can read more in the paper he co-authored with Chad R. Mortensen and Rebecca Neal called "Trending Norms: A Lever for Encouraging Behaviors Performed by the Minority."Robert Cialdini is the Arizona State University Regents' Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Marketing and the best-selling author of several books including the mega-bestseller, Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion. Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0323-3FSX)

When you fail to reach a challenging goal, say, saving a certain amount of money each month or getting to the gym a certain number of times a week, it can be tempting to just give up on the plan entirely. But new research shows that building some flexibility into that plan can actually improve your chances of success.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at how mulligans, skip days, cheat meals, and get-out-of-jail free cards are important strategies for sticking to your long-term goals.In the era of pinball and video arcades, most games provided a limited number of turns or lives for every coin you put in the slot. When you ran out of lives, it was game over. You had to either walk away or pony up more money. That same limited-lives approach to game design followed in early home video game consoles. But in the 1990s, one company tried a new approach—and, in the process, changed the industry forever.Jeff Ryan tells the colorful story of how Nintendo's Super Mario Bros. became a runaway success and influenced countless games to come.Jeff Ryan is the author of Super Mario: How Nintendo Conquered America.Next, Katy speaks with Marissa Sharif about research that shows that cutting yourself a certain amount of slack—or dipping into what she calls "emergency reserves"—when life gets in the way of your goals can make all the difference.You can read more in the paper she co-authored with Suzanne B. Shu called Nudging Persistence After Failure Through Emergency Reserves.Finally, Katy gives several useful examples of emergency reserves in the real world that can help you learn a language, stick to a diet, or get your daily steps in.Choiceology is an original podcast fromCharles Schwab. For more on the series, visitschwab.com/podcast.[RP1]If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0323-3XMC)[RP1]This part will only be included in podcast apps.

It seems like every other week there's a news report about how coffee will help you live longer or will shorten your life. There are similar reports about vitamins and water consumption and any number of other health-related studies. So why do we see so much conflicting information around scientific research in the media? In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, a look at the slippery problem of separating correlation from causation.You'll hear the fascinating story of Franz Mesmer and the apparently miraculous effects of what he dubbed animal magnetism. Author Mara Rockliff recounts the sway that Mesmer held over the Parisian public and how Benjamin Franklin transformed the scientific method in his quest to find the truth.Mara Rockliff has written several books for young readers, including the multiple award-winning Mesmerized: How Benjamin Franklin Solved a Mystery That Baffled All of France.Next, economics professor John List joins Katy to discuss the reasons why we confuse correlation and causation and explains the best practices for separating the two in the study of charitable giving, early childhood education, business, and policy.John List is the Kenneth C. Griffin Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago and the chief economist at Walmart.  Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.(1122-26TV)

You've probably caught yourself indulging after a workout or a game or a stretch of healthy eating. Maybe it was a pint or two after a soccer game or an extra piece of cheesecake after a vigorous hike. These indulgences are easier to justify after a healthy activity. Ironically, though, these indulgences can undo some of your hard work. So why do we tend to behave this way? In this episode of Choiceology withKaty Milkman, a look at how we justify our decisions based on previous behavior.Alfred Nobel was a very successful inventor and businessman. His invention of dynamite transformed industry and saved lives by reducing the use of dangerously unstable nitroglycerin. But his reputation suffered as he became associated with some of the negative uses of his creation. Gustav Källstrand is the senior curator at the Nobel Prize Museum in Stockholm, Sweden. He tells the story of how Alfred Nobel accidentally read his own obituary (spoiler: it was not a positive story) and the efforts Nobel undertook to rescue his reputation.Next, Uzma Khan joins Katy to explain why people use "good" behavior to justify "bad" behavior, and vice versa. She discusses her research into this compensating behavior and how it impacts everything from health to consumer choice to charitable giving.Uzma Khan is an associate professor of marketing at the University of Miami. Finally, Katy explains how this phenomenon relates to what Nobel laureate Richard Thaler calls mental accounting, where we tend to place time and money (and in this case morality and self-control) into accounts, even though they are fungible resources. Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.[RP1]If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.(1022-2NKP)

If you’ve ever lost a job, or been through a breakup, or failed an exam, you’ll know that the aftermath can be painful and disorienting. But for some percentage of those who experience these disappointing outcomes, unforeseen opportunities will arise.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at the occasional upside of being forced to quit a career, or a relationship, or even a favorite route to work.Kassia St. Clair brings us the story of William Henry Perkin. As a young man in 19th-century London, Perkin had set his sights on a career in chemistry and medicine. He devoted his time and energy to the search for a treatment for malaria, which was a growing problem around the world. Unfortunately, he failed in his quest, but his failure opened the door to a surprising new discovery that transformed an entire industry.Kassia St. Clair is a design journalist and the author of The Secret Lives of Color. Next, Annie Duke joins Katy to explain how events like a shutdown of the London subway system, or the COVID-19 pandemic, can sometimes surface new and previously unexplored options. She also discusses how our identities can be wrapped up in our choices, blinding us to alternatives that may actually serve us better.Annie Duke is a speaker and decision strategist. She’s also the author of How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices. Finally, Katy explains that while giving up on important jobs, relationships, or habits may not always be the best option, the behavioral bias of escalation of commitment can cause us to experiment and explore too little in life.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.(1022-29HP)