Yet Another Value Podcast

Lionel Hutz, author of the excellent lionelhutz substack, comes on the podcast to talk about the ongoing drama with Twitter and Elon Musk. In this episode, we exclusively discuss the Twitter case as it stands on October 13th, the odds the deal closes at the end of the month, why it might not, and what happens if it doesn’t. If you’re looking for more background on the deal, please see my podcast from May with Evan Tindell or August with Professor Ann Lipton and Compound248.Lionel's Twitter: https://twitter.com/LionelHutz_EsqMay pod with Evan: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1529452942931238914?s=20&t=7yi3kr0wvPY0nduenfVdSAAugust pod with Ann and Compound: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1556987816894255106?s=20&t=LEFlc2kvhXZ_M59UhEj6NQChapters0:00 Intro2:30 Where we are today6:55 Dismissing CFIUS and Bot Outs9:20 Financing and Insolvency risks overview14:10 How could the banks pull out of financing?21:10 How would Elon's efforts over the next three weeks impact financing outs?26:45 Are Elon's hands too dirty at this point to use a financing out?29:10 How would an insolvency out play out?30:55 Does section 5.9 suggest Elon *must* make Twitter solvent at close?33:20 Judicial Estoppel / has Elon already repped TWTR is solvent?39:30 Piercing the veil / getting Elon to pony up all the money45:10 What does the trial process look like if Elon doesn't close now?48:45 What arguments and discovery get made at trial if Elon tries a financing out?52:15 What arguments and discovery get made if Elon tries an insolvency out?56:40 Closing timeline and the Tesla blackout window theory58:15 Would Elon's lawyers have supported the motion to stay if they weren't planning on closing?1:01:50 Why does Elon seem so scared of getting deposed?

Doug O’Laughlin, founder of fabricated knowledge, discusses his thesis on SiTime (SITM). They cover the market size and growth of MEMS versus Quartz, SITM's MEMS market share, Apple's concentration risk, and the potential of MEMS in taking share from Quartz. They also explore SITM's valuation, capital allocation, and customer behavior in the semiconductor industry.

Zack Buckley discusses his investment thesis for Xponential Fitness (XPOF), including why he thinks the company is set for continued rapid growth.Zack's twitter: https://twitter.com/AmarginofsafetyChapters0:00 Intro2:00 Zack's background5:15 XPOF overview8:20 Can XPOF buck the history of publicly traded fitness?12:10 Brand sustainability and the Curves comp15:15 XPOF's valuation and multiples17:50 XPOF management history20:55 How XPOF's partnerships can create value22:55 Does XPOF have too many brands?26:00 Can XPass drive customer acquisition?29:15 What is Zack seeing in XPOF that the market is missing?31:55 Why XPOF over other publicly traded franchises?35:00 Is XPOF riding a post-COVID tailwind?38:30 Franchisee unit economics41:50 Recession risk49:00 Has the competitive environment changed since the last recession?54:45 Insider buying57:00 Capital allocation and acquisitions going forward

Dave Johnson from Caligan Partners discusses his thesis on Evolus (EOLS). Evolus is a one product company. Their product, Jeuveau, is a Botox competitor exclusively focused on the cosmetics market, and Dave thinks the market is underpricing Jeuveau's strong growth potential.Caligan's website: https://www.caliganpartners.com/Chapters0:00 Intro2:15 Caligan background8:15 EOLS Overview13:00 What does Dave see in EOLS that the market is missing?19:30 Why can EOLS take share versus Botox26:00 Why is EOLS focusing only on Cosmetics29:30 Is M&A in EOLS's future?33:15 EOLS acquisition targets and funding one37:30 Getting operating leverage and hitting cash flow breakeven40:15 What happens if we go into a recession?43:25 What does pricing look like?47:45 Does Daxxify's approval impact the market?52:45 Will new entrants impact pricing for tox?57:15 Closing thoughts

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in September 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, including an aggressive anti-trust regime and the potential for a bump at Swedish Match.Chapters0:00 Intro1:50 What's on Chris's Mind3:10 What's happening in Antitrust8:25 Does UNH's win in CHNG change the environment10:45 Does European regulation impact the antitrust environment?15:55 The ATVI / MSFT deal23:30 Is it ok for regulators to be this "outgunned"?27:00 How do the November elections impact the antitrust outlook?30:00 Quick TGNA discussion31:45 Swedish Match35:55 Is SWMA really undervalued?40:20 Would there be alternative buyers for SWMA?41:20 How FX impacts SWMA

Kyle Mowery and Jake Miller come on the podcast to discus their new CoVest Select venture and then dive deep into their thesis for Orion Engineered Carbons (OEC).CoVest Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/CoVestSelectChapters0:00 Intro2:20 CoVest overview5:05 OEC overview9:05 What is the market missing with OEC?11:45 The supply demand dynamic for rubber black14:15 Why isn't this a simple generic commodity business?18:20 Are management's 2025 midcycle EBITDA targets reasonable?21:00 Why can't a bunch of supply come online in the medium term?26:05 How critical and replaceable is carbon black?29:35 Recycling carbon black?32:10 Will EPA capex really end?36:10 OEC's debottlenecking investments38:20 How the energy crisis effects OEC47:30 Why OEC over competitors51:10 Capital allocation and share buybacks55:40 CoVest overview59:55 Why work with CoVest1:05:05 Timeline for a CoVest investment

Dave Waters of Alluvial Capital comes on the pod to discuss his investment thesis on $PX.You can find Dave's original podcast appearance, where he discuss PX when it was still PIOE and some other small caps, here: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1300763059267481600?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro2:15 PX Overview3:30 Management fee streams5:10 Is PX's focus on fund of funds a concern?8:25 Disintermediation risk for fund of funds11:50 What is the market missing at PX?15:20 Why PX versus a larger alt?18:30 Comparing PX to KKR23:20 PX's acquisition outlook25:15 Can PX really cross sell funds?28:15 More on PX's acquisitions30:00 Adverse selection in fund of fund acquisitions34:00 PX's recent CRSS investment42:30 Why isn't PX buying back stock?46:30 How PX's stock will get more liquid over time48:15 PX's management team track record52:00 Why Dave's digging in Italy and Poland

James Elbaor, founder and CIO of Marlton Capital, discusses his investment thesis for Pershing Square Holdings (PSH).PSH is Bill Ackman's closed end fund. It trades at a discount, at James thinks Ackman is on the verge of taking steps that will both increase net asset value and shrink the discount.James' Twitter: https://twitter.com/jameselbaorChapters0:00 Intro2:25 PSH Overview11:50 Why would a U.S. listing close the NAV gap?20:20 What could PSH buy to relist in the U.S.?22:55 How does PSH fund an acquisition?24:55 Responding to the Ackman Blow Up Risk27:30 PSH's management fees and the discount32:20 Why has PSH's leverage come down this year?38:30 Discussing PSH's "macro" trades42:30 The interest rate swaption46:30 PSH's current portfolio52:30 How PSH will evolve over time56:30 PSH's dividend1:01:30 A little more on a potential relisting

Jon Boyar returns to the podcast to talk about his investment thesis for MSGS and MSGE, including why he thinks investors are underrating James Dolan and just how wide their discount to asset value has become.You can find more on the Fresh Looks here: https://boyarresearch.myshopify.com/products/2022-opportunity-issue-edition-with-bonus-content?utm_content=216760092&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-963533512887406593Chapters0:00 Intro3:45 MSG History8:10 Do the Dolan's actually create value for minority shareholders?13:15 MSGS SOTP15:55 Can someone actually write a check for the Knicks21:15 What happens when the NBA rights renew?24:20 Could the Knicks and Rangers backstop a new Garden at some point?29:30 MSGE spin overview31:10 Why not do a full spin at MSGE?33:20 MSGE bull thesis (SOTP) versus bear thesis (Sphere)37:00 How bad was the MSGN deal40:15 Sports betting47:00 What are the Rockettes worth?49:20 Will James Dolan actually sell the team?53:30 Please don't trade for Donovan Mitchell

Andrew Carreon, founder of Emeth Value, discusses his thesis on Diversified Energy (DEC; trades in London). Key points include how the company can get such good deals on acquisitions, if the company has an edge in handling asset retirement obligations, and why the company pays such a big dividend.My bull thesis on DEC: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/tegus-sponsored-deep-dive-4-natural-198Andrew's first podcast appearance on BSM: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1402967314233008129?s=20&t=8N1sKfcgkx0mbRjNkJxL6wBloomberg article on DEC: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-20/gas-producer-diversified-energy-said-emissions-fell-now-it-says-they-didn-tChapters0:00 Intro2:15 DEC overview9:45 How is DEC getting such good deals from sophisticated sellers17:10 Hs the current energy environment changed the ESG market for energy?19:30 DEC's route density model and acquisition synergies27:30 Asset Retirement Obligations (ARO)43:55 Even more on AROs54:00 Is DEC just kicking the ARO can down the road?58:20 Discussing the "Bloomberg" article1:06:40 Does DEC have a regulatory edge in handling AROs?1:09:10 Why is DEC paying out a big dividend instead of buying back shares?1:15:45 Comparing the opportunity cost of DEC to BSM