Yet Another Value Podcast

Judd Arnold discusses how the offshore place is at an inflection point and why he thinks Tidewater (TDW) is the best way to lay it.   Judd's initial piece on TDW: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cKYzHg62bamDQa620NZcmn_af0A0xTfT/view  Judd's TDW space: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake/status/1600172923355922434?s=20&t=_Q2xMKdTTh1Lhlp-HeRD3w   Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:30 What's interesting about offshore right now?  5:50 Comparing today's cycle to 2012-2014  10:00 TDW's replacement cost and why new build isn't starting any time soon  18:30 Why increasing utilization can quickly spike day rates  21:00 Discussing capital returns if we do see a day rate spike  25:20 Why focus on TDW versus the other offshore players?  30:30 What breaks the offshore cycle?  36:10 Offshore as a snowball running down the hill  39:30 How regulatory uncertainty impacts terminal value and potential new build dynamics  42:40 Discussing TDW's acquisition strategy  46:40 Given the cyclicality here, how do you value offshore?  54:40 Haven't the stocks already run?  59:30 What could accelerate the cycle?

The management team from Tidewater Offshore (TDW) comes on the podcast to discuss Tidewater and why we could be at an inflection point for the offshore space.   TDW's investor relations page (with investor deck): https://investor.tdw.com/overview/default.aspx  December OSV market report (from seabrokers): https://www.seabrokers.no/wp-content/uploads/SEABREEZE_December.pdf Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:50 What's different in the current cycle?  8:00 Why supply is so limited in offshore  13:10 What is TDW seeing on the demand side?  26:00 Discussing TDW's valuation and where earnings can go as rates rise  32:30 TDW's potential utilization 38:10 EBITDA to free cash flow conversion  43:00 What do day rates look like right now?  47:10 How has TDW set up their fleet to take advantage of rising rates?  51:10 But seriously.... why is this time different?  57:30 How low would oil prices need to go to start impacting offshore drilling demand?  59:00 TDW capital allocation going forward

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in December 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, including updates on ATVI, why pre-arb was so bad in 2022, and  WLFC's proposed takeout.    Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:30 What's on Chris's mind  4:00 Discussing why "pre-arb" didn't work in 2022  11:20 Updating ATVI  21:00 Majority takeouts of minorities  29:45 WLFC takeout  37:20 AMZN's IRBT takeout

Lionel Hutz discusses his thesis for Liquidia (LQDA) and why the thinks they are likely to win their patent battle against United Therapeutics (UTHR). Lionel's LQDA write up: https://lionelhutz.substack.com/p/waiting-with-bated-breath-for-liquidia Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:50 LQDA overview  8:05 Diving into the patent background  16:10 Breaking down the conflicting rulings on the '793 patent  19:55 Why the PTAB ruling is the most important for '793  21:55 What's so unique about the judge's ruling on '793  28:30 Why PTAB ruled the '793 patent invalid  37:40 LQDA's primary argument for invalidating '793  43:30 Discussing the expert reports around the '793 patent  53:30 Timeline to monetization and why delaying LQDA is so important for UTHR  59:00 LQDA's upside if they win  1:13:00 LQDA's cash runway

Mordechai Yavneh, founder and PM at Focus Capital, discusses his investment in Silicon Motion (SIMO) and why he thinks it's "merger arb for people who don't like merger arb."   Focus Capital's research site (with SIMO deck): https://focuscapitaladvisers.com/research   Chapters   0:00 Intro  2:40 Why SIMO is different than normal merger arbitrage  6:00 More SIMO overview  11:25 Is the merger overhang impacting SIMO's price?  15:30 Discussing SIMO's fundamentals  21:30 Why companies are outsourcing to SIMO  25:50 Why SIMO is taking share 31:30 Breaking down SIMO's market share  34:15 Why SIMO's demand dynamics aren't like MU's  40:20 SIMO's proxy projections and fundamentals  45:35 How Mordechai looks at SIMO's fundamental value  52:15 Why MXL wanted to buy SIMO  57:00 Why SIMO saw some customer churn in ~2018  1:00:00 What are the odds the SIMO deal goes through?  1:03:45 Capital allocation in a potential deal break

Avi Fisher from Long Cast Advisors joins the pod to talk about CoreCard (CCRD). Key topics include the risks and opportunities from their Apple Card / GS relationship and the benefits of the CEO’s measured growth approach.   Chapters:  0:00 Intro  3:30 Avi's framework for evaluating stocks  22:45 How Avi found CCRD  24:35 CCRD's background  32:00 Discussing the GS relationship and concentration  36:50 CCRD's different revenue lines  40:50 Discussing the "Elephant in the room" (BB article on Apple trying to in house)  50:00 Could GS buy CCRD?  52:45 CCRD's valuation  59:00 What makes CCRD's product "premium"?  1:05:00 CCRD's approach to share repurchases  1:06:15 A little more on CCRD's management and history  1:10:30 Avi's closing thoughts

AJ Secrist from Firstlight Management discussed his thesis for Lamb Weston (LW). LW is a very strong business, and AJ thinks the market is missing just how much margin upside there is as COVID era deals with large customers reprice and the company laps 2021’s disastrous potato crop.   Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:25 LW Overview  9:35 LW Valuation  13:00 Isn't LW fully valued at these prices?  19:25 Discussing the current potato crop  26:55 Global margin upside  28:35 Why is scale an advantage for LW?  31:45 Why will LW's margins accelerate now?  34:30 Industry demand and supply dynamics  37:20 Capital allocation and share buybacks  41:30 Management incentives and share price targets  45:00 Potential private equity or BRK end games  48:10 A little more discussion on LW's potential P/E multiple  51:10 What happens if we have a low carb craze again?

The team from Half Moon Capital, Eric DeLamarter and Brandon Carnovale, come on the pod to discuss their thesis on Oxford Industries (OXM). OXM owns the Tommy Bahama and Lily Pulitzer brands, and Half Moon thinks the market is underestimating the strength of those brands for a variety of reasons.   Half Moon's OXM thesis: https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:aec0338f-33d0-4e35-b956-ac6aa024167a?viewer%21megaVerb=group-discover  Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:20 OXM overview  5:00 Tommy Bahama brand strength  8:55 Could Tommy Bahama follow the LULU brand path?  16:05 OXM's valuation  22:10 Did Tommy Bahama over-earn during COVID?  28:00 OXM management 36:10 Capital Allocation and OXM's recent Johnny Was acquisition  38:30 CROX HEYDUDE acquisition and learnings for OXM  43:10 A little more on Tommy Bahama and the California branded hotel  47:30 OXM's margins and current competitive environment  53:30 Tommy Bahama's inventory risk

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to provide his state of the markets for November 2022, including what's happened with TWTR since the deal closed, FTX's implosion, and a quick run down of a few other merger arb situations.   Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:50 What's going on with TWTR since the deal?  13:50 FTX's implosion  35:30 Chris's current thoughts on crypto  41:15 Walking through some merger situations

Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, goes through his thesis on Casio Computer. Casio makes the popular G-Shock watches, and Michael thinks their rising popularity and a low valuation make for an interesting set up. Michael's Casio write up: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/fb1ac5f5-9ce9-4c56-a930-874d1f73f4c8 Chapters 0:00 Intro 3:00 Casio Overview 6:30 Are watches a dying business? 12:55 Is Casio hitting an inflection point? 18:30 Who's buying G-Shock? 20:00 Casio's valuation 25:00 Does Casio have enough upside? 28:30 Is management really willing to drive shareholder value? 31:00 Do watches make for a good D2C business?