Yet Another Value Podcast

Judd Arnold from Lake Cornelia Research Management on Offshore and Tidewater $TDW

Jan 9, 2023

01:03:56

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Highlights

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Episode notes

I Don't Know My Bookends Are We're Cheap Here

02:14

Is SPO on the Tobacco ESG?

01:41

Is It a Super Cycle for Oil Prices Going to 40?

04:36

Introduction

2min

Tidewater in the Offshore Space in General

4min

The Inverse of 2012 to 2014

3min

The TxU and the Supply Dynamic

4min

Offshore Investments

3min

Offshore Is a Snowball Going Down the Hill

2min

Offshore Oil

2min

Tidewater

2min

Oil Prices Can't Go to 40, So I'm Not Taking on Huge Leverage Risk

2min

10.

Tidewater Versus of a Layer Is a Noble Transition

2min

11.

Hedge Funds

3min

12.

Is It a Super Cycle for Oil Prices Going to 40?

5min

13.

The Supply Story Isn't Changing

4min

14.

New Build Economics

4min

15.

Is SPO on the Tobacco ESG?

2min

16.

Spo

2min

17.

Valuation in a Cyclic Industry

2min

18.

Is the Mid Cycle Earnings Number a Multiple?

2min

19.

I Don't Know My Bookends Are We're Cheap Here

2min

20.

Is That a Scam?

2min

21.

The Tide Water Chart Isn't Going to Go to Trader on People

5min

22.

Oil Sector Rally 50 to 75% I'll Have All These Debates

2min

23.

The OPEC Put Is There and You Don't Need It

3min

Judd Arnold discusses how the offshore place is at an inflection point and why he thinks Tidewater (TDW) is the best way to lay it.

Judd's initial piece on TDW: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cKYzHg62bamDQa620NZcmn_af0A0xTfT/view

Judd's TDW space: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake/status/1600172923355922434?s=20&t=_Q2xMKdTTh1Lhlp-HeRD3w

Chapters

0:00 Intro
2:30 What's interesting about offshore right now?
5:50 Comparing today's cycle to 2012-2014
10:00 TDW's replacement cost and why new build isn't starting any time soon
18:30 Why increasing utilization can quickly spike day rates
21:00 Discussing capital returns if we do see a day rate spike
25:20 Why focus on TDW versus the other offshore players?
30:30 What breaks the offshore cycle?
36:10 Offshore as a snowball running down the hill
39:30 How regulatory uncertainty impacts terminal value and potential new build dynamics
42:40 Discussing TDW's acquisition strategy
46:40 Given the cyclicality here, how do you value offshore?
54:40 Haven't the stocks already run?
59:30 What could accelerate the cycle?

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