Judd Arnold discusses how the offshore place is at an inflection point and why he thinks Tidewater (TDW) is the best way to lay it.
Judd's initial piece on TDW: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cKYzHg62bamDQa620NZcmn_af0A0xTfT/view
Judd's TDW space: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake/status/1600172923355922434?s=20&t=_Q2xMKdTTh1Lhlp-HeRD3w
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:30 What's interesting about offshore right now?
- 5:50 Comparing today's cycle to 2012-2014
- 10:00 TDW's replacement cost and why new build isn't starting any time soon
- 18:30 Why increasing utilization can quickly spike day rates
- 21:00 Discussing capital returns if we do see a day rate spike
- 25:20 Why focus on TDW versus the other offshore players?
- 30:30 What breaks the offshore cycle?
- 36:10 Offshore as a snowball running down the hill
- 39:30 How regulatory uncertainty impacts terminal value and potential new build dynamics
- 42:40 Discussing TDW's acquisition strategy
- 46:40 Given the cyclicality here, how do you value offshore?
- 54:40 Haven't the stocks already run?
- 59:30 What could accelerate the cycle?
