Yet Another Value Podcast

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to talk about what's on his mind in the markets this month, including updates on TWTR, the IS / U / APP love triangle, and Rio's "failed" bid for TRQ.0:00 Intro2:10 Overview3:45 What's happening with TWTR26:10 IS / U / APP love triangle45:00 Rio / TRQ

Tulane Law Professor Ann Lipton and Fintwit personality Compound248 discuss the latest in Twitter’s lawsuit against Elon Musk. Note that we dive directly into all the nuisances of the trial; for more background on how we got here and what’s at stake you can listen to my podcast from May with Evan Tindell.My May pod with Evan on TWTR: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1529452942931238914?s=20&t=7yi3kr0wvPY0nduenfVdSAProfessor Lipton's Twitter: https://twitter.com/AnnMLiptonCompound's Twitter: https://twitter.com/compound248Chapters0:00 Intro2:40 Overall case thoughts to date6:40 Will Elon's "unclean hands" prevent him from breaking the deal?9:05 Is Specific Performance the right remedy here?12:30 How Musk's tweets are undercutting his own case16:30 Can the court see to the heart of the mDAU arguments?26:00 The looming discovery fight28:05 What can we read into the judge's actions so far?30:30 The timeline for resolution if this goes to trial and appeal36:15 What happens if TWTR has an MAE between now and court resolution?38:30 Why is Musk referencing Texas law?48:10 Is the India lawsuit an ordinary course breach?50:05 Does Elon waiving due diligence have any impact on the case?53:15 Elon's consent rights55:55 Does how the contract evolved overtime matter?56:30 Does Elon continuing to add to his counterclaims impact his credibility?58:30 A little more on mDAUs1:00:45 Elon's threat to start a competitor in the merger negotiation1:02:25 The billion dollar damages cap1:08:45 Financing tail risk1:12:15 Odds of a settlement

David Bastian from Kingdom Capital discusses his bull thesis for Unit Corp (UNTC).David's UNTC write up: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503262-unit-corporation-heads-win-tails-dont-loseChapters0:00 Intro2:30 UNTC overview5:00 Discussing UNTC's sale process11:20 Thoughts on UNTC's prelim Q2 numbers14:45 What is the market missing with UNTC?18:00 What is UNTC's major shareholder thinking?23:20 Why did the Gulf assets sell for such a discount?27:15 Can UNTC increase their production?30:15 UNTC's drilling / rig segment33:30 Valuing drilling38:15 Midstream's value46:15 Discussing capital allocation / returns49:20 UNTC's warrants52:40 UNTC's SOTP1:01:00 Generalists in energy

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to talk about what's on his mind in the markets this month, including updates on TWTR, the state of antitrust, and the opportunity set in squeeze outs.0:00 Intro2:45 Markets Overview4:25 Sanderson Farms (SAFM)8:00 Majority owned companies and squeeze outs10:40 CLR update and energy companies21:55 Energy companies now versus Tobacco in the 80s26:10 TWTR update28:50 Review of the TWTR expedited hearing35:25 Will Twitter win specific performance if they win the trial?40:20 Thoughts on TWTR's complaint and Elon's response46:30 Was Elon's attempt to break the deal now bad strategy?52:45 TWTR wrap up

PJ Kurzweil, founder of PJ's SMID Cap Ideas, comes on the podcast to discuss his write up on Spectrum Brands (SPB). Spectrum is currently in the process of selling their HHI business, and whether that deal goes through or not PJ thinks the stock is too cheap given the quality of their brands / businesses.My notes on SPB: https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1547219565016453121?s=20&t=n_liDehcIwWBLmo0x51NLQPJ's SPB write up: https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/spectrum-brands-hard-catalysts-toChapter0:00 Intro2:10 SPB overview4:55 Why is SPB interesting right now?7:30 What's going on with the HHI sale?13:00 HSI's HSR process17:30 What happens if the HSI deal falls through?24:00 HPC's value31:20 Inflation's impact on SPB33:30 Did pets and garden benefit too much from COVID pull forward?37:00 Are millennials a tail wind going forward?40:20 SPB's pet brands45:50 What drives SPB's near term earnings growth?48:00 Is SPB underspending on ad spend?50:00 SPB versus CENT55:00 Capital allocation at SPB

Jeremy Raper of rapercapital.com makes his record 7th podcast appearance to discuss a host of event driven situations.Jeremy's letter to EVO: https://rapercapital.com/2022/07/03/an-open-letter-to-the-board-of-evolve-education-group/Chapters0:00 Intro2:45 What's the current environment like?9:20 SHLX19:00 TRQ34:00 SAVE43:00 VTNR58:30 CLMT1:19:30 Wrapping up with HRBR and FAR

Conor Maguire, founder of valuesits, discusses why he thinks SOL Group is a Buffett-like stock trading at an attractive multiple with the possibility of a private equity takeout over the next five years.Conor's SOL write up: https://valuesits.substack.com/p/deep-breath-deep-valueChapters0:00 Intro2:50 SOL overview4:50 What is the market missing with SOL?9:00 Why a private equity firm would like SOL14:55 Would regulators be ok with a private equity deal for SOL?18:10 Why would the family want to sell SOL?23:10 Diving into the technical gas business25:20 How does Europe's nat gas crisis impact SOL?29:20 What's the long term obsolesce risk for SOL?33:20 SOL's carbon capture call option38:15 SOL's home care business43:20 SOL's emerging businesses49:30 What else is Conor seeing in the market?

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in June 2022.Chris's May 2022 state of the markets episode: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Chris's golden age of arb posts: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519...Chapters0:00 Intro1:50 What's on Chris's mind3:35 Wide spreads and CTXS8:15 PLAN's recut16:15 Do investors over or underestimate how much PE firms care about their reputation?22:45 How strong are bank financing agreements in rocky markets?26:40 Other golden age of arb candidates29:15 State of the energy market32:00 CLR's take private bid39:05 Updated TWTR thoughts50:40 Closing thoughts and crypto markets

Brian Laks, partner at Old West Invest Management, discusses the bull case for Tin and why he thinks the world's largest tin miner, Alphamin, could present an alpha opportunityi.Brian's first appearance on Uranium and NXE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1434879061961019396?s=20Tin market bull case video mentioned: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ro8uCD10-wChapters0:00 Intro2:20 Tin market overview4:00 What drives the structural increase in tin prices?7:25 Is there an alternative for tin?13:25 Tin supply dynamics20:20 What would it take to bring new tin mines on?24:40 Marginal cost of tin supply30:30 Why is today's tin price right versus 2019's?35:15 Alphamin overview41:10 Alphamin's expansion project44:50 The strategic review process52:00 Capital allocation and Alphamin's dividend58:45 Tin's terminal value versus coal1:01:30 Could China buy Alphamin?1:07:00 What happens if Alphamin doesn't sell?1:12:40 Why is the strategic review taking so long?1:16:15 Closing thoughts

Doug Olaughlin, founder of fabricated knowledge, comes on the podcast to talk about the semiconductor space in general and then dive into his thesis on Rambus (RMBS) and why the market might be missing their big growth call option.Fabricated knowledge website: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.comDoug's RMBS thesis: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/a-pure-play-on-datacenter-memory?s=wChapters0:00 Intro3:00 Why semis are so compelling 4:10 What's driving the auto / semi shortage6:55 What Doug's seeing in the semi world11:30 Why generalists struggle with semis15:15 Where are we in the semi-cycle right now?21:30 Separating semi inventory issues from long term supply coming on31:45 How fragile is the semi supply chain39:40 Does a crypto winter impact semis?44:40 Diving into RMBS56:00 What Doug is seeing the market is missing58:30 How sustainable is RMBS's FCF?1:02:30 Why is insider ownership so awful here?1:06:30 RMBS's acquisition program1:08:05 Will RMBS really own CXL?1:14:30 closing thoughts