Chris Colvin returns to the podcast to discuss why he invested in Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMHC) and why he thinks the deal to sell HMHC to Veritas is much too cheap.Breach Inlet's letter to HMHC: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220223005845/en/Breach-Inlet-Capital-Sends-Public-Letter-to-Board-of-Houghton-Mifflin-HarcourtMy notes on HMHC: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1503704685861273604?s=20&t=BJwJj9NIUfEf4nip2Hlf4wChapters0:00 Intro1:15 HMHC Overview6:45 Situation Recap9:00 Why does Chris believe this deal is too cheap?13:05 HMHC's strange forecast and massive revision19:35 HMHC's advisors conflict of interest22:55 Why did management and the board chose to sell the company now?28:00 HMHC's roll up potential31:25 Veritas's other edtech plays33:35 How does this play out from here?34:05 What if the tender fails and Veritas walks away?49:00 Did HMHC's projections undersell the stimulus money impact?51:00 Closing thoughts

Louis Camhi provides an update on his thesis for ORGN and then walks through where he's finding opportunities in the SPAC market today.Louis's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1428710432848613377?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro1:45 Origin Update5:55 Origin today versus their SPAC projections8:45 When will we start seeing unit economics for ORGN plants?12:55 Talking about the SPAC market today17:30 Opportunities in current SPAC IPOs21:30 What pre-deal SPACs does Louis like currently?23:20 What to make of companies that are flying after the deSPAC27:30 Are pre-deal SPAC warrants attractive right now?36:45 CND / Circle45:40 What to make of deals like FMAC that reward shareholders for not redeeming?49:00 SPACs with rights like BENE and ESSC

Jeremy Raper returns to the podcast to discuss his recent semi-activism at FAR Ltd. FAR recently received a bid that Jeremy thinks dramatically undervalues the company, so Jeremy is pressuring the company to cut costs and aggressively return capital to shareholders.My tweet thread on FAR: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1496863885122539520?s=20&t=UK4pHbZdyRecEFP_I46_UQChapters0:00 Intro1:50 FAR overview7:20 Recapping the valuation case13:10 Acquirer optionality at FAR16:45 FAR's historical mismanagement23:10 What put FAR in play31:00 Jeremy's proposal for FAR36:45 What if management goes scorched earth here?48:40 Closing FAR thoughts50:15 LastMinute (LMN) discussion

Bill Chen, an institutional real estate investor, goes through his thesis for FRPH. FRPH is a conservatively managed real estate company with a great management team and a history of growing NAV and monetizing assets at opportunistic times.You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack....My notes on FRPH: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...A rough SOTP for FRPH: https://twitter.com/RhizomePartners/s...Chapters0:00 Intro1:20 FRPH overview3:30 Discussing FRPH's management team / majority shareholder8:00 Understanding the royalty business14:15 Valuing the royalty business21:20 FRPH's balance sheet and net cash22:15 FRPH's real estate value32:00 Pulling the SOTP together33:45 Opportunity cost and alpha at FRPH39:25 FRPH's history of selling assets40:30 How is FRPH still acquiring warehouse plays?43:00 Why FRPH versus other REITs under NAV?47:10 FRPH versus SRG52:00 Why isn't FRPH buying shares right now?57:00 What keeps Bill up at night for FRPH?1:02:30 Closing thoughts

Jon Boyar from the Boyar Value Group returns to the podcast to discuss his high conviction thesis for Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG). SMG was a massive COVID beneficiary, and shares have sold off in kind with other COVID beneficiaries. Jon thinks the market is too pessimistic here, SMG's brands have Coke like market share, and the company has a rapidly growing "picks and shovels" cannabis business that he believes investors are basically getting for free at current pricesYou can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/My notes on SMG: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1489600380854013952?s=20&t=c24bhjV0UhOWlZWjgULoCwBoyar's interview w/ SMG's CEO: https://www.boyarvaluegroup.com/podcasts/james-hagedorn-scotts-miracle-gro-chief-executive-officer-and-chairman-of-the-board-on-the-tremendous-opportunity-in-the-cannabis-space-potentially-spinning-off-the-fast-growing-hawthorne-division/Boyar's SMG overview: https://www.lp.boyarvaluegroup.com/smg2021 Boyar's Forgotten Forty: https://www.lp.boyarvaluegroup.com/andrewwalkerChapters0:00 Intro1:35 SMG Overview5:50 Why are SMG's brands so dominant?9:50 Customer concentration risk for SMG11:55 What happens to earnings as they lapse the "COVID boom"?17:50 Discussing Hawthorne21:30 What is Hawthorne's moat?24:45 Federal legalization and Hawthorne's sales distribution27:40 Why is Hawthorne's growth slowing right now?29:45 Hawthorne's cannabis investment strategy34:00 How SMG got into Hawthorne and look at it long term36:20 Breaking down SMG's SOTP40:00 The rationale for a potential Hawthorne spin45:40 Closing SMG thoughts48:25 Other interesting forgotten 40 names

Rich Howe, founder of stock spinoff investing, walks through the bull case for NXDT. NXDT is a closed end fund trading at a huge discount to NAV; the fund is planning to transition to a REIT and Rich thinks that makes the stock very catalyst rich. A related company, NXRT, pursued a similar move ~6 years ago and their stock has gone up ~6x since.You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/My thread on NXDT: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1488504533709991943?s=20&t=1i5ngJavxgKCHeNtsTWz1ARich's twitter: https://twitter.com/stockspinoffssStock Spinoff Investing: https://stockspinoffinvesting.com/premium/Chapters0:00 Intro1:40 NXDT overview6:55 Insider buying9:45 NXRT parallels12:00 NXDT's discount to NAV13:10 NXDT's level 3 assets and their valuation16:45 Vinebrook homes, one of NXDT's holdings24:30 Why has NXDT's NAV discount widened?27:10 NXDT investing into controlled entities31:30 What is NXDT's post-REIT strategy?34:30 Why is it taking so long to switch to a REIT?37:50 Will NXDT buyback shares?40:00 NXDT's fees43:30 Post-REIT dividend policy47:55 Closing NXDT thoughts50:00 Rich's favorite recent spin: JXN55:00 BHC: the spin Rich is looking forward to the most

Josh Young, CIO of Bison Investments, discusses his thoughts on the oil market and why he thinks energy prices are going much higher. Then he dives into his thesis for Journey Energy (JOY CN in Canada), a micro cap Canadian company that he thinks is dramatically undervalued.You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/Josh's Twitter: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1Chapters0:00 Intro1:45 How Josh is thinking about the oil market today6:30 When do you know oil is high enough?10:25 Why aren't we seeing a big capex / opex ramp up from oil companies?15:45 OPEC's lack of incremental capacity19:35 Is calling for higher oil Big Short 2.0?24:50 Why the oil market today is not the oil market from 201428:50 Small technical difficulty!31:10 Why $100+ oil won't sap demand34:30 What do energy specialists look for that generalists miss?37:15 Do generalists lean towards worse assets than specialists?40:00 Journey Energy overview45:20 Breaking down Journey's SOTP48:15 Journey's growth and decline profile50:00 How are Journey's base assets positioned?53:30 What oil and gas price is baked into Journey currently?54:10 Journey's power plant initiative57:20 What type of power is Journey's power plant?58:50 Journey's Asset Retirement Obligations1:06:35 Closing thoughts on Journey

Keith Smith, Portfolio Manager at Bonhoeffer Capital, discusses his thesis for Millicom ($TIGO). TIGO is trading at a super low multiple and a recent deal that the CEO described as a "no brainer" will result in a rights offering for TIGO, which could set the stock up as a special situation as well. Keith breaks down why he likes TIGO versus other telecom stocks, why he thinks the stock is so cheap, and the hidden value potential at TIGO money.You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack....My notes on TIGO: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Keith's twitter: https://twitter.com/Bonhoeffer_KDSChapters0:00 Intro1:20 TIGO overview4:30 How TIGO's ownership culture sets them apart8:30 TIGO background11:50 More on TIGO's culture and their CHTR like model15:55 Why TIGO over other telecoms like LILAK or LUMN?23:30 TIGO money, TIGO's big fintech call option31:00 Discussing TIGO's largest market, Guatemala36:00 Breaking down TIGO's rights offering43:00 Is TIGO's equity focused culture a red flag?46:05 A mini-rant on Liberty's management compensation48:40 Could TIGO be a perennial value trap?54:20 LILAK's 2019 bid for TIGO: value marker or red flag?58:30 Keith's closing TIGO thoughts1:02:30 Bonus discussion on broadcasters like NXST

Vadim Perelman goes through his thesis on Basic-Fit (BFIT) and why he thinks it could be a ~10x in ~10 years. Key topics include a detailed walk through the unit economics and why competitors won’t be able to open new gyms once the company “fortresses” their markets.My notes on BFIT: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Vadim's BFIT write up: https://punchcardstocks.substack.com/...Chapters0:00 Intro1:00 BFIT intro6:55 The key BFIT question: is 30%+ ROIC sustainable for gyms15:00 Why winning the "land grab" precludes competitors in local markets20:55 How BFIT's scale gives them a cost advantage25:00 Quick mentions of BFIT's marketing and rent advantages30:00 Comping BFIT's costs to UK low cost peers32:50 Why aren't we seeing a faster land share grab by competitors?40:15 Why isn't BFIT pursuing a franchise model?46:55 Could BFIT's ROIC go higher over time as penetration goes up?51:35 What bear cases does Vadim worry about?56:35 Store aging risk / underinvesting in MCX59:45 How BFIT uses their scale to bring down employee costs and create a moat1:05:15 Closing thoughts

Chris DeMuth discusses his best idea for 2022, RENN. RENN was on a previous podcast pitched by Ian Bezek as a legal play; since then, RENN settled with minority shareholders for a record payout. However, in December, RENN's shares sold off massively as a judge rejected their proposed settlement with minority shareholders and ruled the payout should instead go to former shareholders; Chris explains why he thinks that ruling is wrong and likely to be overturned.Podcast with Ian Bezek on RENN from April 2021: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Chris's article on RENN: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478529-renren-is-so-bad-its-good Chapters0:00 Intro1:50 RENN background4:20 What's happened since the last RENN podcast8:20 The settlement announcement in October12:35 What happens in December / why the stock craters19:45 Why are current shareholders appealing the judge's ruling?24:00 What does a derivative suit mean and why is that important?30:00 Were there any precedents for former shareholders getting the settlement payout?35:30 Discussing the unique minority shareholder only payout38:50 Could the settlement be recut to pay directly to the company?44:50 What does the timeline going forward look like?46:30 What happens to the "excess legal fees"?54:30 Why a quick decision on the appeal could be good57:35 What odds does Chris give for the appeal winning?1:00:10 Bear push back: The Sprint / TMUS precedent1:05:40 Closing thoughtsSHOW LESS