Yet Another Value Podcast

AJ Secrist from Firstlight Management discussed his thesis for Lamb Weston (LW). LW is a very strong business, and AJ thinks the market is missing just how much margin upside there is as COVID era deals with large customers reprice and the company laps 2021’s disastrous potato crop.   Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:25 LW Overview  9:35 LW Valuation  13:00 Isn't LW fully valued at these prices?  19:25 Discussing the current potato crop  26:55 Global margin upside  28:35 Why is scale an advantage for LW?  31:45 Why will LW's margins accelerate now?  34:30 Industry demand and supply dynamics  37:20 Capital allocation and share buybacks  41:30 Management incentives and share price targets  45:00 Potential private equity or BRK end games  48:10 A little more discussion on LW's potential P/E multiple  51:10 What happens if we have a low carb craze again?

The team from Half Moon Capital, Eric DeLamarter and Brandon Carnovale, come on the pod to discuss their thesis on Oxford Industries (OXM). OXM owns the Tommy Bahama and Lily Pulitzer brands, and Half Moon thinks the market is underestimating the strength of those brands for a variety of reasons.   Half Moon's OXM thesis: https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:aec0338f-33d0-4e35-b956-ac6aa024167a?viewer%21megaVerb=group-discover  Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:20 OXM overview  5:00 Tommy Bahama brand strength  8:55 Could Tommy Bahama follow the LULU brand path?  16:05 OXM's valuation  22:10 Did Tommy Bahama over-earn during COVID?  28:00 OXM management 36:10 Capital Allocation and OXM's recent Johnny Was acquisition  38:30 CROX HEYDUDE acquisition and learnings for OXM  43:10 A little more on Tommy Bahama and the California branded hotel  47:30 OXM's margins and current competitive environment  53:30 Tommy Bahama's inventory risk

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to provide his state of the markets for November 2022, including what's happened with TWTR since the deal closed, FTX's implosion, and a quick run down of a few other merger arb situations.   Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:50 What's going on with TWTR since the deal?  13:50 FTX's implosion  35:30 Chris's current thoughts on crypto  41:15 Walking through some merger situations

Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, goes through his thesis on Casio Computer. Casio makes the popular G-Shock watches, and Michael thinks their rising popularity and a low valuation make for an interesting set up. Michael's Casio write up: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/fb1ac5f5-9ce9-4c56-a930-874d1f73f4c8 Chapters 0:00 Intro 3:00 Casio Overview 6:30 Are watches a dying business? 12:55 Is Casio hitting an inflection point? 18:30 Who's buying G-Shock? 20:00 Casio's valuation 25:00 Does Casio have enough upside? 28:30 Is management really willing to drive shareholder value? 31:00 Do watches make for a good D2C business?

The "Koala", a buyside mining and commodity specialist, comes on to discuss the commodity and mining space in general and Ivanhoe Electric (IE) in particular.   The Koala's twitter account: https://twitter.com/YellowLabLife  Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:55 General mining / commodity sector overview  12:40 The "nothing can get built anymore" moat  18:40 Capital discipline imposed by low multiples  22:00 How Peabody talked their own stock down with growth plans  31:00 What is the market missing on coal?  44:00 Why is Whitehaven still the Koala's coal horse?  49:30 Discussing Ivanhoe Mines history  56:55 Ivanhoe Electrics background  1:00:45 Ivanhoe's Typhoon Technology  1:04:30 Discussing Ivanhoe's mines  1:12:00 How did Ivanhoe find these great mines in the U.S.?  1:15:00 Ivanhoe's cash runway

Samir Patel, Portfolio Manager at Askeladden Capital, joins the podcast to discuss Mix Telematics (MIXT) and why he sent a letter to the company pushing for change.   Askeladden's letter to MIXT: https://www.accesswire.com/723191/Askeladden-Capital-Announces-Activist-Position-in-MiX-Telematics-NYSEMIXT  Chapters 0:00 Intro  2:50 MIXT Overview  5:45 MIXT's hardware to subscription switch  9:30 The economics of a MIXT subscription  12:30 What's the moat that prevents competitors entering the market?  18:30 MIXT retention and churn  21:00 MIXT high level valuation  24:20 Precedent comps for MIXT  27:30 Why did Askeladden send a letter to MIXT?  35:45 Digging into MIXT's lack of growth and margin expansion  39:15 MIXT's history of missing long term targets  43:45 Would a PE takeout make sense for MIXT?  46:00 MIXT's sales force  48:30 Tracking MIXT's progress in the near term  56:45 MIXT's recent chairman resignation and insider sales

Bill Chen, a real estate investor, returns to the podcast to discuss HHC's value and why Bill Ackman's current tender for the company might undervalue HHC.   HHC model: https://t.co/q6lQ69TeXZ  Chapters  0:00 Intro 2:50 HHC overview  7:15 How HHC can create value over time  9:15 Valuing HHC's operating assets  11:35 Opportunity cost versus other publicly traded real estate  17:35 Valuing HHC's unstabilized assets  19:30 Valuing HHC's Hawaiian assets (Ward Village)  29:55 Valuing HHC's "other" assets  31:40 Valuing HHC's MPC  45:20 Valuing HHC's Seaport asset  50:55 Why is HHC always trading under NAV?  54:00 Will non-Ackman shareholders ever realize value from HHC?  56:25 HHC's OXY deal  1:05:35 HHC's most recent MPC deal versus share buybacks  1:13:00 Ackman's long term HHC plan

Chris Lee, a MBA student who won the Dorsey Stock Pitch Competition, comes on the podcast to discuss his winning pitch for Delta Apparel (DLA). Chris's winning pitch: https://dorseystockpitchcompetition.substack.com/p/long-delta-apparel-dla?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web  Chapters  0:00 Intro  2:30 Chris's background  4:45 DLA overview  10:20 DLA's valuation  13:40 Returns on capital and competition  17:35 DLA's Fanatics partnership  23:10 The Salt Life Brand  27:30 Is this the right management team for Salt Life?  32:30 End game for Salt Life  34:50 Lack of disclosure worries  41:20 Why is this company public?  43:40 Closing thoughts

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in October 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, with a large focus on TWTR.My prior podcast on SPB: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1549013912133111808?s=20&t=6iWCDZC_8sPzlIuELTNwdQChapters0:00 Intro2:30 What's on Chris's mind this month (TWTR)4:50 Twitter's security review (or lack thereof)7:30 Jurisdiction for a potential TWTR security review13:30 What would a security review look like?21:40 The politics behind a TWTR security review29:25 Potential repercussions from a TWTR security block35:55 Last chance for financing and insolvency outs!41:45 How big will the cost cuts at TWTR be?45:50 Discussing Spectrum Brands

Luis Sanchez, founder of LVS Advisory, disses the bull thesis for IBKR, including why the company is a major beneficiary of interest rates rising and how the company's business to business solution can drive major account growth.See Luis's IBKR write up here: https://lvsadvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/LVS-Advisory-IBKR-Write-Up-September-2022.pdfChapters0:00 Intro2:45 IBKR overview6:05 What is Luis seeing in IBKR that the market is missing?12:30 IBKR's valuation15:15 Is IBKR more net interest or trading driven?19:00 IBKR's focus on active traders23:30 Does IBKR have one product risk from the bigger asset managers?28:30 Blow up risk38:00 International account risk and opportunity42:45 Business to business growth52:45 Trading account stickiness53:35 IBKR and crypto55:55 IBKR's founder and management team1:00:15 Share buybacks and insider selling