Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in September 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, including an aggressive anti-trust regime and the potential for a bump at Swedish Match.Chapters0:00 Intro1:50 What's on Chris's Mind3:10 What's happening in Antitrust8:25 Does UNH's win in CHNG change the environment10:45 Does European regulation impact the antitrust environment?15:55 The ATVI / MSFT deal23:30 Is it ok for regulators to be this "outgunned"?27:00 How do the November elections impact the antitrust outlook?30:00 Quick TGNA discussion31:45 Swedish Match35:55 Is SWMA really undervalued?40:20 Would there be alternative buyers for SWMA?41:20 How FX impacts SWMA

Kyle Mowery and Jake Miller come on the podcast to discus their new CoVest Select venture and then dive deep into their thesis for Orion Engineered Carbons (OEC).CoVest Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/CoVestSelectChapters0:00 Intro2:20 CoVest overview5:05 OEC overview9:05 What is the market missing with OEC?11:45 The supply demand dynamic for rubber black14:15 Why isn't this a simple generic commodity business?18:20 Are management's 2025 midcycle EBITDA targets reasonable?21:00 Why can't a bunch of supply come online in the medium term?26:05 How critical and replaceable is carbon black?29:35 Recycling carbon black?32:10 Will EPA capex really end?36:10 OEC's debottlenecking investments38:20 How the energy crisis effects OEC47:30 Why OEC over competitors51:10 Capital allocation and share buybacks55:40 CoVest overview59:55 Why work with CoVest1:05:05 Timeline for a CoVest investment

Dave Waters of Alluvial Capital comes on the pod to discuss his investment thesis on $PX.You can find Dave's original podcast appearance, where he discuss PX when it was still PIOE and some other small caps, here: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1300763059267481600?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro2:15 PX Overview3:30 Management fee streams5:10 Is PX's focus on fund of funds a concern?8:25 Disintermediation risk for fund of funds11:50 What is the market missing at PX?15:20 Why PX versus a larger alt?18:30 Comparing PX to KKR23:20 PX's acquisition outlook25:15 Can PX really cross sell funds?28:15 More on PX's acquisitions30:00 Adverse selection in fund of fund acquisitions34:00 PX's recent CRSS investment42:30 Why isn't PX buying back stock?46:30 How PX's stock will get more liquid over time48:15 PX's management team track record52:00 Why Dave's digging in Italy and Poland

James Elbaor, founder and CIO of Marlton Capital, discusses his investment thesis for Pershing Square Holdings (PSH).PSH is Bill Ackman's closed end fund. It trades at a discount, at James thinks Ackman is on the verge of taking steps that will both increase net asset value and shrink the discount.James' Twitter: https://twitter.com/jameselbaorChapters0:00 Intro2:25 PSH Overview11:50 Why would a U.S. listing close the NAV gap?20:20 What could PSH buy to relist in the U.S.?22:55 How does PSH fund an acquisition?24:55 Responding to the Ackman Blow Up Risk27:30 PSH's management fees and the discount32:20 Why has PSH's leverage come down this year?38:30 Discussing PSH's "macro" trades42:30 The interest rate swaption46:30 PSH's current portfolio52:30 How PSH will evolve over time56:30 PSH's dividend1:01:30 A little more on a potential relisting

Jon Boyar returns to the podcast to talk about his investment thesis for MSGS and MSGE, including why he thinks investors are underrating James Dolan and just how wide their discount to asset value has become.You can find more on the Fresh Looks here: https://boyarresearch.myshopify.com/products/2022-opportunity-issue-edition-with-bonus-content?utm_content=216760092&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-963533512887406593Chapters0:00 Intro3:45 MSG History8:10 Do the Dolan's actually create value for minority shareholders?13:15 MSGS SOTP15:55 Can someone actually write a check for the Knicks21:15 What happens when the NBA rights renew?24:20 Could the Knicks and Rangers backstop a new Garden at some point?29:30 MSGE spin overview31:10 Why not do a full spin at MSGE?33:20 MSGE bull thesis (SOTP) versus bear thesis (Sphere)37:00 How bad was the MSGN deal40:15 Sports betting47:00 What are the Rockettes worth?49:20 Will James Dolan actually sell the team?53:30 Please don't trade for Donovan Mitchell

Andrew Carreon, founder of Emeth Value, discusses his thesis on Diversified Energy (DEC; trades in London). Key points include how the company can get such good deals on acquisitions, if the company has an edge in handling asset retirement obligations, and why the company pays such a big dividend.My bull thesis on DEC: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/tegus-sponsored-deep-dive-4-natural-198Andrew's first podcast appearance on BSM: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1402967314233008129?s=20&t=8N1sKfcgkx0mbRjNkJxL6wBloomberg article on DEC: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-20/gas-producer-diversified-energy-said-emissions-fell-now-it-says-they-didn-tChapters0:00 Intro2:15 DEC overview9:45 How is DEC getting such good deals from sophisticated sellers17:10 Hs the current energy environment changed the ESG market for energy?19:30 DEC's route density model and acquisition synergies27:30 Asset Retirement Obligations (ARO)43:55 Even more on AROs54:00 Is DEC just kicking the ARO can down the road?58:20 Discussing the "Bloomberg" article1:06:40 Does DEC have a regulatory edge in handling AROs?1:09:10 Why is DEC paying out a big dividend instead of buying back shares?1:15:45 Comparing the opportunity cost of DEC to BSM

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to talk about what's on his mind in the markets this month, including updates on TWTR, the IS / U / APP love triangle, and Rio's "failed" bid for TRQ.0:00 Intro2:10 Overview3:45 What's happening with TWTR26:10 IS / U / APP love triangle45:00 Rio / TRQ

Tulane Law Professor Ann Lipton and Fintwit personality Compound248 discuss the latest in Twitter’s lawsuit against Elon Musk. Note that we dive directly into all the nuisances of the trial; for more background on how we got here and what’s at stake you can listen to my podcast from May with Evan Tindell.My May pod with Evan on TWTR: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1529452942931238914?s=20&t=7yi3kr0wvPY0nduenfVdSAProfessor Lipton's Twitter: https://twitter.com/AnnMLiptonCompound's Twitter: https://twitter.com/compound248Chapters0:00 Intro2:40 Overall case thoughts to date6:40 Will Elon's "unclean hands" prevent him from breaking the deal?9:05 Is Specific Performance the right remedy here?12:30 How Musk's tweets are undercutting his own case16:30 Can the court see to the heart of the mDAU arguments?26:00 The looming discovery fight28:05 What can we read into the judge's actions so far?30:30 The timeline for resolution if this goes to trial and appeal36:15 What happens if TWTR has an MAE between now and court resolution?38:30 Why is Musk referencing Texas law?48:10 Is the India lawsuit an ordinary course breach?50:05 Does Elon waiving due diligence have any impact on the case?53:15 Elon's consent rights55:55 Does how the contract evolved overtime matter?56:30 Does Elon continuing to add to his counterclaims impact his credibility?58:30 A little more on mDAUs1:00:45 Elon's threat to start a competitor in the merger negotiation1:02:25 The billion dollar damages cap1:08:45 Financing tail risk1:12:15 Odds of a settlement

David Bastian from Kingdom Capital discusses his bull thesis for Unit Corp (UNTC).David's UNTC write up: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503262-unit-corporation-heads-win-tails-dont-loseChapters0:00 Intro2:30 UNTC overview5:00 Discussing UNTC's sale process11:20 Thoughts on UNTC's prelim Q2 numbers14:45 What is the market missing with UNTC?18:00 What is UNTC's major shareholder thinking?23:20 Why did the Gulf assets sell for such a discount?27:15 Can UNTC increase their production?30:15 UNTC's drilling / rig segment33:30 Valuing drilling38:15 Midstream's value46:15 Discussing capital allocation / returns49:20 UNTC's warrants52:40 UNTC's SOTP1:01:00 Generalists in energy

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to talk about what's on his mind in the markets this month, including updates on TWTR, the state of antitrust, and the opportunity set in squeeze outs.0:00 Intro2:45 Markets Overview4:25 Sanderson Farms (SAFM)8:00 Majority owned companies and squeeze outs10:40 CLR update and energy companies21:55 Energy companies now versus Tobacco in the 80s26:10 TWTR update28:50 Review of the TWTR expedited hearing35:25 Will Twitter win specific performance if they win the trial?40:20 Thoughts on TWTR's complaint and Elon's response46:30 Was Elon's attempt to break the deal now bad strategy?52:45 TWTR wrap up