Artem Fokin discusses Burford winning the YPF case + fundamental thesis post-trial $BUR

Sep 25, 2023

Artem Fokin, Portfolio Manager at Caro-Kann Capital LLC, discusses Burford winning the YPF case and the fundamental thesis post-trial. Topics include enforcement and collection efforts, timing of enforcement and potential settlement payouts, tax implications, $BUR core business, $BUR asset management business model, $BUR valuation without YPF included, and ROE on the core business on a per share basis.

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Introduction

00:00 • 4min

Retirement and Private Costs

03:30 • 13min

Berford's Potential Earnings and Collection Strategy

16:39 • 14min

The Impact of Seizing Trading Companies and the Complications of Outstanding Judgments

31:00 • 2min

Timeline, Valuation, and Potential Outcomes

33:22 • 5min

Exploring Lump Sum Payments, Settlement Amounts, and Previous Case Precedent

38:12 • 2min

Tax Implications of the Patterson Sale

40:00 • 21min

Valuation, Haircut, and Incentive Fee

01:00:56 • 15min

Investment Strategies of Quad Funds and Burford's $140 Million Investment in Cisco

01:16:09 • 21min

Management's approach to funds and buybacks, and a suggestion for a revolver

01:36:53 • 3min

Valuing the Core Business and Comparisons to Black Stone

01:40:12 • 6min

Artem Fokin, Portfolio Manager at Caro-Kann Capital LLC, returns to the podcast (for the fourth time) to discuss Burford winning the YPF case and the fundamental thesis post-trial.

For more information about Caro-Kann Capital, please visit: http://caro-kann-capital.com/

Artem's first appearance on BUR: https://youtu.be/qBuH8pyc8Y0

Artem's second appearance on BUR: https://youtu.be/OIFGrfx1O88

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:41] Burford won the case - quick overview of the case and how we arrived at this final judgement

[15:15] Enforcement and collection

[28:55] Examples of collection efforts

[33:14] Timing of enforcement and potential settlement payouts

[44:02] Tax implications

[54:22] Why hasn't $BUR management answered the question about whether any of the funds they manage bought YPF?

[1:03:35] $BUR core business

[1:14:04] $BUR asset management business model / recent results / management and employee incentives

[1:28:26] $BUR valuation without YPF included

[1:39:38] ROE on the core business on a per share basis and final thoughts

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