UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Paula Campbell Roberts from KKR and Jason Draho from UBS CIO discuss US macroeconomy, growth outlook, inflation, and Fed rate cuts. They highlight portfolio positioning preferences, economic uncertainties, gold's role in investments, productivity growth impact on GDP and inflation rates, market trends, investment strategies in 2022, and valuation discounts in mid and small cap companies.

The US provides the main data releases. JOLTS data on job vacancies is expected to continue to decline. The initial surge in vacancies in 2021 was strongly influenced by labor market churn. As that subsided, vacancy rates fell. Nominal wage growth continues to slow, which argues against a tight labor market.

To begin the week (and a new month), Jason reflects on May market performance drivers, and outlines what investors should be mindful of throughout the month of June, and into the summer season. We also take a pulse on current investor sentiment, and review the current allocation recommendations per the June UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve President Kashkari has advocated a significant tightening of central bank policy, by raising real interest rates (keeping nominal rates stable as inflation slows). The pain of this would likely hit lower income groups disproportionately. Kashkari’s wants to keep inflation expectations anchored—yet inflation expectations are properly observed through consumers’ actions (certainly not through surveys). Moderating wage growth suggests well-anchored expectations.

Markets and life are full of conundrums. This week, our Viewpoints podcast addresses at least three current ones. Some of them have unexpected resolutions, related to the surprising roles and impact of cheating, free-riding, bond-yields, the sometimes-infectious nature of mood-swings and time’s canny ability to heal many wounds.

We get fresh evidence on the hedonism of the US consumer, with personal income and spending numbers. The personal consumer expenditure deflator will be the markets’ focus. This is less influenced by the nonsense of owners’ equivalent rent than is consumer price data. There are other notable differences (like motor insurance). Overall, the inflation data is expected to stay steady.

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

The podcast discusses recent bond market upset, US debt sustainability concerns, and challenges in finding compromise in Congress. Also covers economic growth, European inflation data, wage growth, and US GDP data revision.

Financial experts Justin Waring and Katie Williams along with Mark Halloran discuss action bias in investing, emphasizing the importance of strategic decision-making and diversification. They explore the impact of guarantees on portfolios, the role of financial advisors in navigating action bias, and the benefits of seeking guidance for rational financial decisions.