UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Entertaining analysis of US Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. Indirect quotes from the Federal Reserve's Beige Book offer insights. Focus on prices and pricing power. Discussion on recent economic data and market sentiment.

The podcast explores the impact of inflation, interest rates, and central bank actions on global markets. They delve into the potential effects on economic growth in various regions. Additionally, they discuss the economic implications on currencies, high yielding currencies, and commodities, including the Fed's rate cuts and the performance of the US dollar. The podcast also explores Nvidia's growth and its influence on the technology and AI industries, projecting a $200 billion GPU spending in the AI sector. Furthermore, they discuss the impact of GPU investments on the IT sector, focusing on SaaS companies benefiting from AI-driven revenues.

Today we spotlight the May edition of the monthly Sustainable Investing Perspectives publication. Among the topics featured within, Amantia highlights global plastic reduction efforts, including the role companies are playing, along with the potential investment considerations from these efforts that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Explore global inflation signals in the UK, Japan, Germany, and the US and their impact on financial markets. Learn about the differences between shop price data and consumer price data, with a focus on profit-led inflation and supermarkets' pricing strategies.

Discussion on ECB's readiness to cut rates with insights from Chief Economist Lane, comparison of inflation in Europe, US, and UK, impact of narrative on rate decisions, economic nationalism, policy influence on inflation, US Federal Reserve's beige book, China's manufacturing, and upcoming German EFO business confidence poll.

UBS On-Air: Market Moves presents a conversation with Solita Marcelli, CIO Americas of UBS, and Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine. They discuss macroeconomic landscape, historical cycles, geopolitical dynamics in Ukraine and Israel, credit market landscape, navigating the tech bubble, and speculations on the upcoming elections and US role in global affairs.

Japan’s April consumer price inflation was a little dull—the inflation rate slowed more or less as expected, as food prices offered disinflation. Some sources of inflation are probably not domestic in origin—although the rate has moderated, hotel price inflation remains close to 20% y/y. Very strong foreign tourist numbers helped push up those prices.

US President Clinton’s admonition “It’s the economy, stupid” puts economists in their proper (superior) place. But which economy? Economists get excited about inflation, but voters think in terms of price levels—a higher price level can be considered unfair even as inflation falls. GDP is too abstract for voters, who do not care whether “growth” is -0.1% or +0.1%. Economic perceptions (honest perceptions, not sentiment surveys) drive politics.

With US equity indices having recently reached record levels, many investors are wondering how long this momentum can continue (and what might disrupt it). Burkhard outlines CIO’s view on equity returns, along with breaks down the anatomy of a bull market. Plus, we spend time on the implications of the bull market wealth effect to consumer behavior and economic activity.

European Central Bank President Lagarde did, after all, offer policy comments yesterday—in an Irish TV interview. Lagarde signaled a June Euro area rate cut is coming, because inflation is under control. Markets already expect this. Currently, US inflation is the same as that of Europe when measured on a like-for-like basis, so why is the Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts?