US President Clinton’s admonition “It’s the economy, stupid” puts economists in their proper (superior) place. But which economy? Economists get excited about inflation, but voters think in terms of price levels—a higher price level can be considered unfair even as inflation falls. GDP is too abstract for voters, who do not care whether “growth” is -0.1% or +0.1%. Economic perceptions (honest perceptions, not sentiment surveys) drive politics.
UBS On-Air: Market Moves