UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS CIO, as he discusses the latest market trends, upcoming inflation data, and FOMC rate decisions. Explore insights on potential rate cuts, AI advancements in tech stocks, and predictions for small cap stocks and fixed income. Get ready for a busy week ahead in the financial market!

In any society experiencing a period of economic upheaval, some people do better while others do worse. The causes are complex, but those suffering want a simple explanation. This encourages scapegoat economics—blaming economic problems on a minority group. Scapegoat economics encourages prejudice politics, where politicians promise everything will be OK if that group can only be excluded. This helps explain the extremists’ success in the European elections.

Leslie Falconio and David Lefkowitz discuss the volatility in interest rates and market trends. They analyze the drop in treasury yields, investment opportunities in various sectors, impact of AI on the market, uncertainties leading up to the election, recent OPEC decision on oil prices, and strategies for bond duration in the current interest rate environment.

Senior Economist Americas at UBS Chief Investment Office, Brian Rose, discusses the May employment data and US labor market health. The podcast also previews the upcoming FOMC meeting and highlights other points on the US data calendar, providing valuable insights for investors.

The podcast discusses the ECB rate cut and future speculation, US Employment Report data quality concerns, market reactions, and expectations, as well as China's trade data showing stronger exports and weaker imports compared to the US.

This week Shane reflects on the 80th anniversary of D-day, recap’s Dr. Anthony Fauci’s Congressional testimony, updates on the latest executive action directed at the US Southern border, along with developments surrounding the Israel-Hamas War. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the wake of Mexico’s election outcome earlier this week, Gaby outlines the results, weighs in on the market response, and shares the investment implications to be mindful of. Featured is Gaby Soni, Head of Investment Strategy Mexico, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There is a strong consensus about today’s ECB policy rate decision. A total of 53 out of 55 surveyed economists expect a 0.25% rate cut, and ECB Chief Economist Lane has practically promised an easing (chief economists are, of course, never wrong). The idea this year has been that most major central banks would follow inflation lower. Eurozone inflation is lower. Rate cuts are not stimulatory, but stabilizing (keeping the real interest rate steady).

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard explains the underestimated importance of the upcoming European elections, football championships, and the Olympics, along with what investors can learn from professional athletes, coaches, and teams.

Japan published some labor market data, with April cash earnings. On a like-for-like comparison, these were somewhat weaker than expected (and they remain negative in real terms). There are two points worth bearing in mind. An increasing share of Japanese consumers do not depend on earnings to finance consumption, because of population aging. And more of the Japanese economy has been supported by foreign consumers as tourists.