How should I be positioned? with Paula Campbell Roberts (KKR) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Jun 4, 2024
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Paula Campbell Roberts from KKR and Jason Draho from UBS CIO discuss US macroeconomy, growth outlook, inflation, and Fed rate cuts. They highlight portfolio positioning preferences, economic uncertainties, gold's role in investments, productivity growth impact on GDP and inflation rates, market trends, investment strategies in 2022, and valuation discounts in mid and small cap companies.
2024 economic outlook predicts steady two and a half percent growth, with first-quarter GDP surpassing expectations.
Inflation expected to remain elevated due to structural forces; Federal Reserve forecasted to delay rate cuts until the subsequent year.
Deep dives
Economic Outlook for 2024: Growth Surpasses Expectations
The podcast guests reflected on the economic outlook for 2024. They revealed that growth had exceeded initial expectations, with first-quarter GDP at 1.3% and a second quarter tracking between two and a half to three and a half percent. Forecasts indicated a steady growth expectation of two and a half percent for the full year, reflecting a positive trajectory in the macroeconomic environment.
Inflation Trends and Fed Projections: Anticipated High Inflation
Discussions revolved around inflation trends and Federal Reserve projections. The Federal Reserve is predicted to refrain from rate cuts until the following year, with a forecast of four cuts the subsequent year. Expectations lean towards a higher inflation bias, attributing it to structural forces like energy transitions, global security concerns, demographics, and artificial intelligence, potentially influencing inflation staying elevated beyond 2025.
Market Responses to Uncertainty: Implications for Diversification
Concerns over market responses to uncertainty and shifts in regimes were highlighted. While a consensus emerged on a higher-for-longer scenario and potential structural shifts, volatility is expected to rise due to geopolitical factors and interest rate fluctuations. The need for diversification to mitigate risks across asset classes, including private credit, infrastructure, and private equity, was emphasized.
Investment Opportunities and Strategic Approaches: Focus on Private Credit and Infrastructure
The discussion expanded to investment opportunities and strategic approaches in asset allocation. Private credit was recommended for income generation, with a focus on high-quality companies and risk management. Infrastructure assets were identified as Goldilocks investments in 2022, offering stability and growth potential amid secular trends. Private equity was highlighted for its historical outperformance during periods of uncertainty, signaling favorable entry points for mid-cap companies.
Paula joins Jason in-studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured is Paula Campbell Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist for Global Wealth, KKR, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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