UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Brian shares his thoughts on the current health of the US labor market following today’s release of the January employment report. Plus, a look at the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Today witnesses the extreme hype of US employment data. Today’s data also has annual benchmark revisions, which will confuse the headlines. Weirdly, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has cancelled all briefings explaining data. This is not necessarily helpful as data becomes more complex, inaccurate, and misunderstood. It has also fueled disquiet that the new US administration might politicize the way data is calculated (survey responses are already partisan).

Kristina Hooper is the Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco. We cover a wide range of topics, including a macroeconomic outlook, expectations for monetary policy, notable market risks, and views on asset allocation. Host: Daniel Cassidy

New US Attorney General Bondi issued a flurry of memos, allegedly including a request to investigate companies pursuing diverse and inclusive workforces. That is economically significant. At a time of rapid structural change, companies need to employ the right person in the right job at the right time to maximize technological gains, with diverse views to spot the opportunities of rapid change. Undermining that risks damaging trend economic growth and profitability.

As headline developments surrounding trade uncertainty and DeepSeek persist, Xingchen drops by to discuss what this all means for emerging market equities. We also spend time examining the scope of US imposed tariffs on China, and the implications for Chinese growth and overall relations with the US. Plus, a deeper look into DeepSeek’s breakthroughs in the AI space. Featured is Xinghen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US postal service has stopped receiving parcels from mainland China and Hong Kong after US President Trump taxed buyers of goods from mainland China worth less than USD 800. Meanwhile, restaurants are surcharging egg-eaters. These are trivial issues, but they affect economic perceptions. Small parcels make up less than 5% of mainland China’s exports to the US, but individuals either do not receive those parcels or abruptly learn that tariffs are paid by consumers, not exporters. Egg prices were a key political issue, and some consumers (wrongly) use them as a measure of wider economic wellbeing.

US President Trump again retreated from imposing aggressive taxes on US consumers. Although taxes on goods from Mexico and Canada are in theory delayed for a month, after three retreats in a row markets are unlikely to take that threat seriously. US consumers would have been visibly affected by these taxes—even Republican senators became aware that tariffs are paid by their constituents and not foreigners, and tweeted pleas for exemptions.

Investors are weighing the announcement of new tariffs from the Trump administration, and the risks of a trade war, along with the implications of DeepSeek to the progression of AI. Jason drops by to discuss the market and investment implications of these developments, plus shares guidance when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Economists are geeks. Star Wars parallels are tempting: US President Trump as the Trade Federation leader; Trump’s largest donor Musk as Chancellor Palpatine, railing against bureaucrats; and economists as Jedi Knights. But threatened US trade taxes have real consequences. Investors’ hope is the precedent of Trump’s rapid retreat from taxing Colombian imports.

As the Q4 corporate reporting season continues, Matt updates us on how the results have been coming in across equity sectors. We also discuss recent performance of US equities, a near-term performance outlook, along with considerations when it comes to positioning within US equities. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy