UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US President Trump reiterated their intention to aggressively tax US consumers of products from Canada and Mexico, possibly excepting oil consumers. Several US refineries are set up to process Canadian and Mexican, not US, oil. The speed of Trump’s retreat from taxing US coffee drinkers is a reminder of the unpredictability around tariff policy.

Businesses have greeted the post-election environment with optimism, yet uncertainty remains as questions surround the timing and implementation of Trump 2.0 policies’ interplay with a seemingly more cautious Fed and slowing economy. Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to discuss the outlook and implications. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The returning US president has already helped broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. He is now attempting to do the same for Russia and Ukraine. But what kind of deal looks likely and what would this mean for Europe’s economy and markets? Finally, which equity sectors could benefit most from peace? Featured in this episode is Themis Themistocleous, CIO for EMEA, alongside co-hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

The Federal Reserve did nothing on rates, which seemingly displeased US President Trump. Uncertainty about the inflationary impact Trump’s policies might reduce the chance of a March rate cut, but characterizing policy as restrictive does suggest future rate cuts are plausible. Overt criticism of the Fed by Trump risks tilting the Fed toward hawkishness in any close call decision, to prove their independence.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the developments surrounding DeepSeek and the impact felt by US technology and energy companies. Burkhard also shares some interesting boots-on-the-ground takeaways from recently attended deep-tech conferences, along with weighs the impacts of the global race for energy resources.

Ulrika Hoffman-Vacardi, Global Head of Equities at UBS CIO, and Paul Donovan, Global Chief Economist at UBS, dive into the intricacies of today's market. They discuss the evolving landscape of AI advancements and how they present new investment opportunities. The duo explores recent U.S. tariff policies and their unpredictable economic impacts, highlighting their role as a sales tax on consumers. Additionally, they analyze European equities in light of geopolitical shifts, focusing on low valuations and infrastructure investments.

The Federal Reserve decides on rates—the market consensus is for unchanged rates today. US President Trump advocates for rate cuts, but that view point may be biased by their experiences as a borrower. The rate outlook is complicated. Underlying inflation pressures are modest, and keeping real interest rates stable may require rate cuts.

A wide-ranging fixed income discussion on yields, along with where pockets of vulnerability and opportunity exist within fixed income as we enter 2025. Leslie and Gene also spend time sharing their overall outlooks, along with views when it comes to monetary policy, and positioning across the asset class. Featured is Gene Tannuzzo, Global Head of Fixed Income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Following what has been a busy first week in office for President Trump, Shane recaps some of the notable executive actions, developments, and travel. Plus, we update on the progress of cabinet hearings and confirmations, along with preview what a timeline for tariffs could look like in the coming days and weeks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Government Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Investors’ sudden discovery of China’s DeepSeek arguably reminds markets of the Fukushima Effect —people adapt when facing adversity (e.g. restrictions on China’s access to technology). On a larger note, output economics and GDP tend to ignore the benefits of efficiency. A culture that venerates GDP is a culture that may miss out on the benefits of a more efficient world.