UBS On-Air: Market Moves Macro thoughts with Jonathan Pingle, UBS Investment Bank
May 14, 2025
Jonathan Pingle, Chief US Economist at UBS Investment Bank, discusses the complexities of the US economy amid evolving trade policies and potential recession risks. He explores the impacts of tariffs and public pressure on the Federal Reserve's independence. Pingle emphasizes the uncertainties around current fiscal measures and offers insights into the narrative surrounding American exceptionalism in a protectionist era. The conversation is a deep dive into how these factors shape the future economic landscape.
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Ongoing Uncertainty in Trade Policy
- U.S. trade policy is highly uncertain with ongoing tariff discussions and postponed components.
- Tariffs currently represent a significant tax increase on imports, with unclear future outcomes.
Economy Strong but Faces Inflation Risks
- The U.S. economy shows solid demand and employment despite trade noise.
- Upcoming tariff impacts likely to increase inflation and reduce real household incomes, hurting growth later in the year.
Potential Mild Recession Risks
- No clear recession signs yet but trade policies could slow growth significantly.
- A mild recession or "soggy patch" could emerge due to tariff-induced inflation and spending impacts.