UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US President Trump sounded a partial retreat from the latest trade taxes, granting US car companies a one-month exemption for car parts traded under the revised NAFTA. This rather highlights the fact that US consumers and companies, not foreigners, pay trade taxes. One month does not allow for much response—some stockpiling, presumably a lot of lobbying. Market reactions seem to signal a belief that trade tax retreats are possible, but the limited response suggests concern about the lack of policy coherence.

Explore the latest on U.S. trade and tariff impacts, especially regarding Mexico and China. Dive into the current political and economic uncertainties affecting the market, with a lens on geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. Unpack the Federal Reserve's strategies in response to inflation and rate expectations. Discover the promising potential of Chinese tech stocks and AI advancements. Finally, examine inflation dynamics and hedging strategies, while considering how European nationalism might shape U.S. investment opportunities.

US President Trump’s address to Congress echoed speeches at campaign rallies. Markets have limited interest in much of the content. Trump did suggest trade tariffs would create “a little disturbance”, which seems to suggest a commitment to keep taxing US consumers. However, there was a faint sound of retreat from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, who suggested that some of the tax burden may be lifted for consumers of Canadian and Mexican products as soon as today.

We cover a wide range of timely topics, including tariffs and US trade policy, efforts for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, along with US government funding and budgetary efforts. Plus, a preview of President Trump’s address to Congress. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares his thoughts on recent geopolitical developments, and how global markets (including oil) have responded over the past few days. Plus, an assessment of market valuations, along with outlook scenarios. To conclude, Burkhard reflects on his unforgettable cycling journey through the Swiss Alps, and cites intersections with the world of investing and the rich history of Switzerland.

US President Trump lashed out in several directions yesterday, suspending military aid to Ukraine and aggressively taxing US consumers of imports from Canada, China, and Mexico. Although Trump inherited a strong economy, these moves increase US recession risks. The Ukraine decision has economic consequences. It may increase international hostility to Russia and the US, affecting sanction resolve and trade negotiations.

While there is a lot of noise for investors to sift through, there are some things we know with relative confidence. As for other things, we will have to make conjectures. Jason joins to identify just that, along with reviews the latest allocation recommendations, and messages in focus for the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The idea of a coalition of the willing pushing for a one-month ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war is probably neutral, economically. Things like defense spending or energy supplies are unlikely to be affected significantly by this move.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the broader markets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Alex Obaza, Portfolio Manager, T.Rowe Price. Host: Daniel Cassidy