UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: The week in review and preview
Jun 13, 2025
In this discussion, Matt Tormey, an Equity Strategist at UBS Chief Investment Office, dives into the recent U.S. and China trade negotiations, highlighting the cautious optimism in the markets. He unpacks the latest inflation data and its surprising impact on consumer prices, discussing how international trade agreements are shaping economic forecasts. Tormey also analyzes the current equity market, suggesting a neutral investment stance while identifying sectors poised for growth. Finally, he previews upcoming economic indicators and earnings reports that could influence market trends.
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U.S.-China Trade Talks Progress
- Progress was made in U.S.-China trade talks, restoring a trade truce despite limited details.
- Both countries agreed on restoring rare earth shipments and easing student visa curbs, signaling reduced tensions.
Inflation Trends and Tariff Effects
- Inflation data came in cooler than expected with core services inflation trending lower due to moderating shelter costs.
- Tariff impacts on inflation remain limited but are expected to rise through the year as inventories deplete.
Balanced U.S. Equity Outlook
- U.S. equities are currently neutral with valuations above 21 times, reflecting priced-in trade de-escalation.
- Earnings growth expected but economic headwinds from tariffs and softer data may modestly restrain upside.