UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Join CIO for a discussion on tariff uncertainty, inflation, and the implications of the artificial intelligence rally, hosted by Anthony Pastore and featuring Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation CIO Americas and Nadia Lovell, Senior Equity Strategist CIO Americas.

As potential risks around macro-and tariff-related uncertainties emerge in 2025, how should investors position in tech and take advantage of increasing near-term volatility? Plus, as German election results shape market sentiment, what's the outlook for European stocks and what tools can investors leverage?

Equity markets are not just about economics (equity analysts do not always listen to economists). However, shifting perceptions of economic risk seem to be behind recent US equity market moves. 2025 started with solid economic foundations in the US and other developed economies.

As US growth concerns persist, Jason explores how at risk the economy is of slowing (and the possibility of sliding into a recession). We also cover the latest on tariffs aimed by the US at Canada and Mexico, along with touch on policy and market developments in Germany. Plus, a look at CIO’s latest market outlook and portfolio positioning guidance. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s consumer prices moved into deflation in February. Some of this is due to the timing of the lunar new year, and some of it is the impact of warmer weather on food prices (food has a higher weighting in China’s inflation calculation than in developed economies). However, markets are concerned that the low inflation environment does not suggest robust domestic demand.

We close out the trading week by assessing the latest round of jobs data, and what the numbers indicate about the health of the US labor market. Plus, take an inventory of tariff announcements, preview next week’s inflation readings, and reflect on recent equity market volatility. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Having imposed aggressive taxes on US consumers at the start of the week, US President Trump partially retreated from taxing Mexican and Canadian imports yesterday (assuming goods are compliant with the revised NAFTA). The taxes are delayed until 2 April, but markets will likely price in more retreats.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the big rotation unfolding across global markets, with the recent outperformance of global equities, and underperformance of US equities. Burkhard explains why the “go global” thesis remains intact, along with shares his take on intertest-rates, inflation and gold.

Paul Donovan, Chief Economist for UBS GWM, dives into Germany's political and economic landscape, focusing on chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz's push for independence from the U.S. and plans for increased defense and infrastructure spending. The discussion highlights the surprising resilience of Germany's DAX index amid geopolitical tensions and examines consumer confidence despite recent economic challenges. Donovan also explores broader Eurozone dynamics and the potential impact of demographic trends on Europe's economic future.

US President Trump sounded a partial retreat from the latest trade taxes, granting US car companies a one-month exemption for car parts traded under the revised NAFTA. This rather highlights the fact that US consumers and companies, not foreigners, pay trade taxes. One month does not allow for much response—some stockpiling, presumably a lot of lobbying. Market reactions seem to signal a belief that trade tax retreats are possible, but the limited response suggests concern about the lack of policy coherence.