UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Military fallout'
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Jun 16, 2025 The podcast tackles the recent missile exchanges between Iran and Israel, highlighting their surprisingly minimal impact on global financial markets. It discusses how inflation concerns in the U.S. could be influenced by rising energy prices. Additionally, it explores the sometimes limited effects of major leadership meetings, reflecting on past G20 gatherings, while examining economic indicators from the U.S. and China. Consumer spending trends are also analyzed, reminding listeners that investment opinions provided are for informational purposes only.
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Market Reaction to Middle East Conflict
- The initial missile strike by Israel on Iran was unexpectedly severe which caused market reactions.
- Subsequent strikes did not surprise investors, limiting further market impacts unless energy or shipping are disrupted more seriously.
Inflation Impact on US Economy
- Inflation perceptions in the US may rise due to higher energy prices and trade taxes pushing consumer prices up.
- This could reduce US consumer spending power and change the dynamics in trade negotiations.
US Inflation's Effect on Trade Talks
- Rising US inflation, even if unrelated directly to trade taxes, may weaken President Trump's position in trade talks.
- Market expectations for trade outcomes hinge on shifts in US consumer inflation perceptions.