The Bayesian Conspiracy

The Conspirators regroup to discuss if/how their views on monarchy have changed. The full episode is available for our Patrons Mentioned: List of Current States With Monarchs CGP Gray’s Rules for Rulers (Keys of Power) Tears For Fears – Everybody Wants To Rule The World (warning – crappy 80s song)

We speak with Cornelius about this idea that Monachy is good because it can save us from populist fascism. 1:44:50 LW posts 2:14:45 Thank the Patron Cornelius blogs at EsotericMusings.substack.com Also mentioned: Gray Mirror Substack Democracy: The God that Failed by Hans-Hermann Hoppe Jace’s counterargument is basically a link to Scott Alexander’s Anti-Reactionary FAQ We did a “Reactions to this episode” mini-episode the following week Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Fake Fake Utility Functions Fake Utility Functions Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs When None Dare Urge Restraint The Robbers Cave Experiment

We catch up on stuff and hit a few wandering targets. 0:01 Jace on Lithium 21:10 Feedback 26:05 LW posts 50:06 Nuclear Ukraine 59:43 Nuclear Us 1:05:30 Steven Tries To Get Us Cancelled Lithium in drinking water linked with lower suicide rates The Mind Killer – Vladimir Putin’s Small Dick Energy Warcasting – ACX and Zvi Razom Ukraine delivers medical supplies Robert Wiblin leaving London Potasium Iodide tablets Eneasz Interviews Ada Palmer Keep Your Identity Small Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Affective Death Spirals Resist the Happy Death Spiral Uncritical Supercriticality Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Fake Fake Utility Functions Fake Utility Functions

We discuss A Chemical Hunger – the paper presenting the hypothesis that the modern obesity epidemic is due to enviromental contamination causing widespread lithium poisoning. EDIT – MAJOR UPDATE – It’s probably not lithium! Links to become a patron of this group, or contact them BMI Calculator Less Wrong Posts – 5:53 Main Topic – 15:09 Thank the Patron – 1:50:23 [PART I – MYSTERIES] [PART II – CURRENT THEORIES OF OBESITY ARE INADEQUATE] [PART III – ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINANTS] [PART IV – CRITERIA] [PART V – LIVESTOCK ANTIBIOTICS] [PART VI – PFAS] [PART VII – LITHIUM] [PART VIII – PARADOXICAL REACTIONS] [INTERLUDE H – WELL WELL WELL] [PART IX – ANOREXIA IN ANIMALS] [PART X – WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT] Eneasz’s tldr notes Extracting lithium from seawater Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: The Halo Effect Superhero Bias Mere Messiahs Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Affective Death Spirals Resist the Happy Death Spiral Uncritical Supercriticality

This is a trailer for a bonus Patrons-only episode. It’s 45 minutes chatting with Aella about various things that struck Eneasz’s interest. Aella’s twitter is Aella_Girl. Homepage at Knowingless, also has a substack.

The Conspiracy comes out strongly in favor of switching to Normal Predictions, which is safe and easy when you use the Jan Christian Refsgaard method! Also, we agree with Zvi that Change is Bad. (Though note that changing to Normal Predictions has so many positives that it outweighs the Bad of Change, so don’t let that dissuade you in this instance.) Things of interest: Scott Alexander’s predictions 2022 Timing: 32:15 Main Topic 1:38:43 Thank the Patron Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Evaluability (And Cheap Holiday Shopping) Unbounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, & Futurism Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: The Halo Effect Superhero Bias Mere Messiahs

A few days ago I asked Wes a couple follow-up questions on wireheading, and later chatted with Emilio from the Discord on-record. I thought it wouldn’t be too long, but it turned out to go about as long as a full episode. So now there’s a bonus episode available for Patrons (and Discord members) on Wireheading. Here’s a trailer, to entice you into getting the full thing. To subscribe to us on Patreon — our Patreon page To join the Discord —  our discord

Jace and Steven cover this one since Eneasz is busy drinking cocktails out of a coconut in a beach in Hawaii. Robin Hanson (probably correctly) thinks the world is going to shit (paraphrasing). He thinks that a robust check on the escalating madness out there could be a community of intellectual generalists. Is he right? Are his categories sensible? Find out as we meander through this post! 4:24 – LW Posts 38:17 – Main Topic 2:08:35 – Thank The Patron! Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Purpose and Pragmatism The Affect Heuristic Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Evaluability (And Cheap Holiday Shopping) Unbounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, & Futurism

We beef with Wes over how important values may or may not be, and why Wireheading is awesome and/or evil. Wes is the head of The Mind Killer podcast! 7:23  –  LW Posts discussion begins 53:39  –  Main Topic begins 2:01:40  –  Thank the Patron We also discuss Not Everthing Is a Clue and Aladdin The quokka Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: The Hidden Complexity of Wishes (audio version here, courtesy of ywecur!) Lost Purposes Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Purpose and Pragmatism The Affect Heuristic

We speak to Aella about her post on Frame Control Aella’s Twitter & LSD post National Domestic Violence Hotline The Categories Were Made For Man not visa versa SSC post Jace’s XKCD reference Shut Down The Narcissist video Gray Rock video Not Everything Is A Clue Shaping Exercises 101 Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Not for the Sake of Happiness (Alone) Leaky Generalizations Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: The Hidden Complexity of Wishes Lost Purposes