The Bayesian Conspiracy

Roe v Wade is going away. This sucks, but it’s not the end of the world. Polls show most Americans support allowing abortion in the first weeks, banning it in the last trimester. In state’s where it’s legal, one can have a self-managed abortion. AidAccess is available to help. Services like ipostal1 will forward mail from other […]

Not long ago, Hawai’i was a constitutional monarchy. A lot of Hawaiian residents want that restored. Travis Don Kailikea Paradea takes us through what happened, and what’s going down now. Recommended by Travis: The Legends and Myths of Hawaii The Rise and Fall of the Hawaiian Kingdom: A Pictorial History Unfamiliar Fishes Weblog of the […]

Four Major AI Advancements In One Week! New Scaling Laws for Large Language Models – essentially everyone has been training large language models with a deeply suboptimal use of compute Googles Pathways Language Model explains jokes, and it can distinguish cause and effect and understand counterfactuals DALL-E 2 makes amazing art on demand Socratic Modeling […]

We address theoretical cryonics concerns, and discuss Guzey’s Theses On Sleep 3:15  Cryonics Concerns 49:21  Theses On Sleep 1:23:01  LW posts 1:50:16  Thank the Patron Also mentioned: LW Cryonics Probability Estimates guide Our episode with Rudy Hoffman Lifespan podcast Limitless w Chris Hemsworth Counter-theses on Sleep Scott Alexander’s Sleep Is The Mate Of Death Cryonics […]

The Conspirators regroup to discuss if/how their views on monarchy have changed. The full episode is available for our Patrons Mentioned: List of Current States With Monarchs CGP Gray’s Rules for Rulers (Keys of Power) Tears For Fears – Everybody Wants To Rule The World (warning – crappy 80s song)

We speak with Cornelius about this idea that Monachy is good because it can save us from populist fascism. 1:44:50 LW posts 2:14:45 Thank the Patron Cornelius blogs at EsotericMusings.substack.com Also mentioned: Gray Mirror Substack Democracy: The God that Failed by Hans-Hermann Hoppe Jace’s counterargument is basically a link to Scott Alexander’s Anti-Reactionary FAQ We […]

We catch up on stuff and hit a few wandering targets. 0:01 Jace on Lithium 21:10 Feedback 26:05 LW posts 50:06 Nuclear Ukraine 59:43 Nuclear Us 1:05:30 Steven Tries To Get Us Cancelled Lithium in drinking water linked with lower suicide rates The Mind Killer – Vladimir Putin’s Small Dick Energy Warcasting – ACX and […]

We discuss A Chemical Hunger – the paper presenting the hypothesis that the modern obesity epidemic is due to enviromental contamination causing widespread lithium poisoning. EDIT – MAJOR UPDATE – It’s probably not lithium! Links to become a patron of this group, or contact them BMI Calculator Less Wrong Posts – 5:53 Main Topic – […]

This is a trailer for a bonus Patrons-only episode. It’s 45 minutes chatting with Aella about various things that struck Eneasz’s interest. Aella’s twitter is Aella_Girl. Homepage at Knowingless, also has a substack.

The Conspiracy comes out strongly in favor of switching to Normal Predictions, which is safe and easy when you use the Jan Christian Refsgaard method! Also, we agree with Zvi that Change is Bad. (Though note that changing to Normal Predictions has so many positives that it outweighs the Bad of Change, so don’t let […]