The Bayesian Conspiracy

We speak with Levi/Ferb, learning about labor law in the USA. Turns out it’s not what we thought. Links: What would a general strike look like today? Biden intervenes in railroad contract to block strike Truckers strike at Port of Oakland Taft–Hartley Act A People’s History of the United States Dr. Horrible’s Sing-Along Blog United Mine Workers of America to pay more than $13 million in compensation to an Alabama coal company African American Workers Historic Struggle Against Segregation Labor News: Who Gets the Bird? PayDay Report Working People Podcast “You are GPT-3,” a long-form prompt directly instructing GPT-3 on desired usage of a scratchpad to suppress hallucinatory answers Craiyon 0:00:01 Main Topic 2:08:40 Feedback 2:14:46 LW posts 2:40:03 Thank the Patron Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: To Lead, You Must Stand Up Cultish Countercultishness Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: My Strange Beliefs Posting on Politics The Two-Party Swindle

A Jugaad is like a hack that combines a new thing that doesn’t work anymore with an old thing that sorta worked, as a temporary solution. Now do it for Ethics. (note: due to technical issue, the last 3 minutes of the main topic audio quality is crappy. sorry.) The Primary Article – Jugaad Ethics Also mentioned: Random article about jugaad Eneasz found Who Should Pay On A Date? Pregnancy is Body Horror Red Plenty TradFam as Startup YouTube vids to get started on doing sex better Liberal Elite minority rule Feedback – Friendship is Optimal text, and FiO Audio on YouTube Utopia, LOL? What Lies Dreaming free online 0:02:33 Feedback 0:06:05 Main Topic – Jugaad Ethics 1:25:22 LW posts 1:40:56 Thank the Patron Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: On Expressing Your Concerns Lonely Dissent Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: To Lead, You Must Stand Up Cultish Countercultishness

Luck is the most power force in the universe, and leaving power untapped is not very rational. Searching for Outliers How to Get Lucky Also mentioned: Feedback – It’s Probably Not Lithium The audio version of It’s Probably Not Lithium from the LessWrong Curated Podcast The entirety of the LessWrong Curated Podcast Friendship is Optimal Things you’re allowed to do Micro-Marriages Bad At Marketing? Eneasz’s novel What Lies Dreaming, and Substack DeathIsBad 0:00:36 Feedback 0:26:30 Main Topic – Outliers and Luck 1:36:39 LW posts 1:49:52 Thank the Patron Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: The Amazing Virgin Pregnancy Asch’s Conformity Experiment Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: On Expressing Your Concerns Lonely Dissent

Dunbar’s Number is both the cause of and downfall of Human Civilization Low-Status degrades your health Your Book Review: The Dawn Of Everything Mentioned in the follow-ups section: Lithium suspect? AIs threaten proof-of-work The Mind Killer podcast 0:00:34 Feedback 0:11:58 Main Topic pt1 Status in Dunbar Spheres 0:46:37 Main Topic pt2 The Dawn of Everything 1:15:08 LW posts 1:30:04 Thank the Patron Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Effortless Technique Zen and the Art of Rationality Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: The Amazing Virgin Pregnancy Asch’s Conformity Experiment

Katrina is back!! We talk about how pregnancy isn’t super easy, and is borderline body horror. War In The Womb Expecting Better book Pregnant Women Are Smug Racial Differences in Maternal Mortality How Pregnancy Changes the Brain, and PubMed version Clown Registry Still A Good Mom 1:32:08 LW posts 1:51:00 Thank the Patron Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Two Cult Koans False Laughter Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Effortless Technique Zen and the Art of Rationality

Étienne Fortier-Dubois argues that Effective Altruism has an Aesthetics problem But first! Some extended listener feedback Nuclear War is A-OK if you’re Russian State TV Three Bodies At Mitani A Guide To Asking Robots To Design Stained Glass Windows 00:42  Abortion Clarification & Jace’s Addition 14:15  Best Purchase Ever 27:24  Main Topic: Effective Altruism’s Neglect of Aesthetics 1:19:09  LW posts 1:36:37  Thank the Patron Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Guardians of Ayn Rand The Litany Against Gurus Politics and Awful Art Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Two Cult Koans False Laughter

Roe v Wade is going away. This sucks, but it’s not the end of the world. Polls show most Americans support allowing abortion in the first weeks, banning it in the last trimester. In state’s where it’s legal, one can have a self-managed abortion. AidAccess is available to help. Services like ipostal1 will forward mail from other states. Misoprostol is relatively easy to acquire from veterinary sources. Eneasz is unhappy with Kamala Harris 1:08:13  LW posts 1:15:40  Thank the Patron Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Guardians of the Truth Guardians of the Gene Pool Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Guardians of Ayn Rand The Litany Against Gurus

Not long ago, Hawai’i was a constitutional monarchy. A lot of Hawaiian residents want that restored. Travis Don Kailikea Paradea takes us through what happened, and what’s going down now. Recommended by Travis: The Legends and Myths of Hawaii The Rise and Fall of the Hawaiian Kingdom: A Pictorial History Unfamiliar Fishes Weblog of the acting government of the Hawaiian Kingdom 1:17:57  LW posts 1:25:44  Thank the Patron Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Argument Screens Off Authority Hug the Query Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Guardians of the Truth Guardians of the Gene Pool

Four Major AI Advancements In One Week! New Scaling Laws for Large Language Models – essentially everyone has been training large language models with a deeply suboptimal use of compute Googles Pathways Language Model explains jokes, and it can distinguish cause and effect and understand counterfactuals DALL-E 2 makes amazing art on demand Socratic Modeling system 1:39:51  LW posts Also mentioned: Overcoming Bias: AI Language Progress What an actually pessimistic containment strategy looks like Github Copilot Anthropic AI The Mind Killer Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Argument Screens Off Authority Hug the Query (edit: misspellings is how we prove we aren’t AIs :P)

We address theoretical cryonics concerns, and discuss Guzey’s Theses On Sleep 3:15  Cryonics Concerns 49:21  Theses On Sleep 1:23:01  LW posts 1:50:16  Thank the Patron Also mentioned: LW Cryonics Probability Estimates guide Our episode with Rudy Hoffman Lifespan podcast Limitless w Chris Hemsworth Counter-theses on Sleep Scott Alexander’s Sleep Is The Mate Of Death Cryonics Insitute FAQ and info re transportation services Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs When None Dare Urge Restraint The Robbers Cave Experiment Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence